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1. mai 2007
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The Iraqi government has stated with some conviction that al-Qaeda's top leader in Iraq, Abu Ayyub al-Masri, was killed by Sunni tribal fighters.
Interior Minister Jawad al-Bolani said "primary information" showed Masri was dead, telling a news conference that details would soon be released to the media.
"Some good news was received about the killing of Abu Ayyub al-Masri ... The reliability of this information is high," Bolani said alongside Defense Minister General Abdel Qader Jassim, who also said Masri was believed killed.
Evan Kohlmann is very unconvinced.
In recent months, Iraqi government sources have, on numerous occasions, erroneously reported the capture or killing of senior Al-Qaida leaders. Thus, the credibility of this latest claim is still very much in question. Additionally, both the U.S. military and Iraqi government continue to use an alternate pseudonym for al-Muhajir: "Abu Ayyub al-Masri." Yet, curiously, nobody from Al-Qaida has ever referred to al-Muhajir using the name "Abu Ayyub al-Masri"--nor, in fact, has there ever been any public confirmation from Al-Qaida that al-Muhajir is really an Egyptian.
*UPDATE* (11:30am eastern): Al-Qaida's "Islamic State of Iraq" has now issued a formal statement denying the death of Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, who they describe as the Islamic State's "Minister of War." Elsewhere, Al-Qaida supporters have suggested that the initial report of his demise was part of a desperate scheme concocted by the Iraq government aimed at forcing al-Muhajir to surface and identify himself.
The Iraqi government appears to back down, too.
Asked again to confirm Masri was dead, Bolani said: "If he has not been killed today, he will be killed tomorrow."
The al Qaeda-linked Islamic State in Iraq denied that Masri, also known as Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, had been killed.
"The Islamic State in Iraq assures the Islamic nation about the safety of Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir, may God save him, and that he is still fighting the enemies," said the group in a statement posted on a Web site used by militants.
The credibility of statements from the Iraqi interior ministry continues to crumble.
6:38:28 PM 
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Tony Blair is expected to announce his resignation as Prime Minister within weeks.
There had been predictions he would use his 10th anniversary to announce he was stepping down.
But he moved, earlier on Tuesday, to dampen that speculation, telling GMTV: "I'll make my position clear next week, I'll say something definitive then."
But later on Tuesday morning he used an election rally instead to suggest Mr Brown would be his successor within a matter of weeks.
He told party workers: "In all probability a Scot will become prime minister of the United Kingdom, someone who has built our economy into one of the strongest in the world, and who, as I have said many times before, would make a great prime minister for Britain."
The praise sounds somewhat forced.
I would be quite surprised if Gordon Brown is ever elected prime minister.
6:31:27 PM
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It's long been noted that the United Nations is corrupt, ineffective and suffers from the veto powers of nation states that has a lot of hands in the world's atrocities in the first place. Republican contender John McCain argues for the creation of a League of Democracies, to be able to act where the UN brass is just busy checking in at five star hotels and passing resolutions against Israel.
McCain is careful to note that his proposed multinational organization would not be like Woodrow Wilson's failed "League of Nations." Rather, McCain says the organization would be far more similar to what Theodore Roosevelt favored—a group of "like-minded nations working together in the cause of peace."
"It could act where the U.N. fails to act," McCain says.
Such a new body, he says, could help relieve suffering in Darfur, fight the AIDS epidemic in Africa, develop better environmental policies, and provide "unimpeded market access" to countries sharing "the values of economic and political freedom."
And, McCain adds, an organization of democracies could pressure tyrants "with or without Moscow's and Beijing's approval" and could "impose sanctions on Iran and thwart its nuclear ambitions" while helping struggling democracies succeed.
Not an original idea, obviously, but it's important that a heavyweight throws his weight behind such a development.
Now, even if such an organisation is formed, how to avoid it collapsing into a corrupt, ineffective paper tiger like the UN? The European Union is a good example of how a league created by democratic powers with the best of intentions turns into a bureocratic monster that merely exists to fuel its own thirst for power.
3:48:03 PM
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As expected, a probe into the Israel-Hezbollah war is very critical of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz.
The partial report by a government-appointed committee probing the Second Lebanon War on Monday accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of "severe failure" in exercising judgment, responsibility and caution during the outset of the war.
The report, officially released at a 5 P.M. press conference in Jerusalem on Monday, says Olmert acted hastily in leading the country to war last July 12, without having a comprehensive plan.
The prime minister, the report said, "bears supreme and comprehensive responsibility for the decisions of 'his' government and the operations of the army."
But Cabinet Secretary Israel Maimon said after the report was released that the prime minister is not considering resignation.
Olmert also came under criticism for rushed actions at the outset of the war, and for failing to consult with either military or non-military experts.
"The prime minister made up his mind hastily, despite the fact that no detailed military plan was submitted to him and without asking for one," the report said. "He made his decision without systematic consultation with others, especially outside the IDF, despite not having experience in external-political and military affairs."
Olmert was also censured for failing to "adapt his plans once it became clear that the assumptions and expectations of Israel's actions were not realistic and were not materializing."
"All of these," the report said, "add up to a serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence."
The findings level heavy criticism at Defense Minister Amir Peretz for being unaware of the state of the Israel Defense Forces, even though he should have been.
Peretz "did not have knowledge or experience in military, political or governmental matters. He also did not have good knowledge of the basic principles of using military force to achieve political goals."
Ouch. At this time especially, Israel desperately needs a leader who has the confidence of its people and the begrudging respect of its enemies. Olmert is not that man. The situation being what it is, especially with Likud riding high in the opinion polls, makes it unlikely that Labour and Kadima will dissolve the parliament and call for new elections. This situation is very detrimental to the country.
2:12:11 AM
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© Copyright 2007 Jan Haugland.
Last update: 01.06.2007; 11:45:15.
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