Rudimentary terrorism
The blog Iberian Notes follows the Madrid terror attack. He is quite convinced that the ETA is really behind this.
They've announced the modus operandi of the bombing operations: what the killers did was simply get on a train, unobtrusively leave a pre-set backpack, and leave through another door before the train even left the station. This "rudimentary" technique, as they called it, worked perfectly, and it fits in with ETA capabilities now: three or four kids could have pulled this off, assuming the bombs were pre-manufactured for them in some ETA hideout near Hernani or whatever.
That is true, except that there were three or four simultanous explosions, on different train stations in Madrid. That requires extensive planning and coordination of at least three teams, and thus some level of sophistication. Hardly rudimentary tactics, and well beyond the capabilities of kids.
I am not saying it wasn't ETA, mind you, just that this is a radical change of ETA tactics if it is really them. But it would fit al-Qaeda tactics perfectly.
The strongest argument that this is ETA after all is that similar plans to bomb trains have been foiled in the past.
I cannot imagine that the terrorists have not left some traces leading to the arrest of at least some of them. Then we'll know who was behind this sickening carnage.
Update: Back Seat Drivers also covers this story in detail, having even more updates to the original posting than I have, including this piece of information:
However, a Spanish journalist has just been on the BBC News 24 TV channel and said that police had told her that the explosives used were the same as those seized by police from ETA suspects two weeks ago.
Sounds like pretty good evidence pointing towards the ETA.
Update 2: There were ten bombs exploding in three different train sets:
Authorities said the blasts came from 10 TNT-laden backpacks placed on trains, which have little or no pre-boarding security. [...]
Authorities said they believed that 13 backpacks packed with TNT were placed on trains. Ten of the backpacks exploded. Another 3 backpacks were detonated by authorities afterwards.
Chilling as the thought may be, this could have been even worse. Did the three other backpacks fail to explode due to malfunction, or did the police get to them in time?
Thirteen backpacks! That sounds like a sophisticated, large-scale operation.
Update 3: 186 dead, more than 1000 injured. It has for a long time been clear this is the worst terror attack in western Europe since World War II, and of course the worst ever to hit a EU country. The Spanish government is expressing strong certainty that the ETA is to blame for the attack. Interior minister Ángel Acebes is quoted as saying "I do not have the least doubt that it is E.T.A."
Update 4: There is growing evidence that al-Qaeda was behind this after all, but nothing conclusive.
2:36:52 PM
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