Al-Sadr ignites Iraq's Shiites
 After coalition troops closed down a Shiite extremist newspaper and arrested an aide to the extremist Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, there has been violent clashes in Shiite-dominated areas of Iraq today, by far the most serious uprisings among Shiites since the war started.
The first trouble hit the Spanish base in Najaf, where aggressive demonstrations turned violent. Initial reports said four soldiers from El Salvador had been killed, but these were faulty:
In a statement from Madrid, Spain's Defense Ministry said there had been confusion in its earlier statement which had reported four Salvadoran soldiers killed and nine wounded when their "Al-Andalus" base in Najaf was attacked Sunday morning.
The correct casualty figures were one American soldier and one Salvadoran soldier, fighting alongside the Spanish, killed and 19 Salvadorans wounded, a spokesman said.
Reportedly, at least 20 Iraqis were also killed, among them two police officers.
I have seen a bit of speculation around on whether this trouble was orchestrated to put further pressure on Spain. If it was, it is merely insofar as Badr and his men may consider Spain a weak target and likely to withdraw from Iraq after the Madrid bombings. I can't imagine any cooperation between extremist Shiites and the extremist Sunnis in al-Qaeda. Whether Spain's political weakness has made rogue elements more confident is another possibility, but even that is probably reading too much into the latest trouble.
In similar uprisings in the Sadr City area of Baghdad, mostly Shiite populated, 7 US soldiers were killed and 24 wounded as Sadr's militia attempted to flex its muscles.
Master Sgt. David A. Melancon of the 1st Armored Division said in a statement Monday that the fighting in the capital began when "the militia of Moqtada Sadr's army -- Jaysh Mahdi or Mahdi Army -- attempted to interfere with security in Baghdad, intimidate Iraqi citizens and place them in danger. Specifically, the militia attempted to occupy and gain control of police stations and government buildings."
Militia members attacked soldiers and Iraqi law enforcement officers with small-arms fire and rocket-propelled grenades, according to Melancon. The U.S. and Iraqi forces, he added, "prevented this effort and reestablished security in Baghdad at the cost of seven U.S. soldiers killed and more than two dozen wounded."
Obviously, Moqtada Sadr, a junior cleric with a minority but zelous following has become a serious problem. He is trying to use open warfare to estanlish himself as Ayatollah in Iraq, and am openly fighting against the coalition forces. No doubt there will be serious unrest if he is arrested or killed, but backing down now will be even worse.
Note that I wrote about Sadr as early as June 9 last year:
He seems to be an extremist that will be a serious danger to the US presence and the future of democracy in Iraq. His people are now using violence and intimidation to target Christians and more moderate Muslims alike. Any appeasement towards this wannabe Ayatollah may well have the same tragic consequences as Ayatollah Khomeini's return from Paris to Tehran.
That warning can be repeated with even stronger force now.
Sadr is influenced by leading conservative clerics in Iran. I am quite convinced this trouble is orchestrated from Tehran. A working democracy on its doorstep will be disastrous for the Mullahcracy in Iran, and they know their very survival depends on American failure in Iraq. They do what they can, and we should be prepared for even more trouble, even if a majority of Shiites oppose extremists like Sadr. Blood in the streets have a nasty tendency to polarise a population, and foreigners are not likely to remain on the good side of the Iraqi people if it becomes "us vs them" too many times.
It is going to be a few very, very tense months up to the planned handover of sovereignity in June.
Update: Omar at Iraq the Model has a few choice words about young Muqtada. He also reminded me about this quite dangerous fact:
The second and the more important is the foreign one. He’s been already receiving support from Iran and now after declaring alliance with Hizbollah and Hamas he’ll be certainly receiving support from other parts including Syria.
Hopefully Sistani and other respected Shiite leaders can arise and put an end to this madness before Sadr does real damage.
Zeyad in Healing Iraq writes what I thought:
Iraqis know very well who those 'pious' people are. They are gangsters, rapists, murderers, thieves, kidnappers, looters, and criminals. They are only using religion as cover. I can't even dream of what would happen if those people were left to make trouble on our streets that way without punishment. I believe that it's now time for Al-Sadr to experience a very bad accident soon.
That may well happen.
12:50:01 AM 
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