Monday, April 07, 2003

Here we go.  The Finals.  Let's play some ball.  But first, some brief words about the semis. I've never seen anything like the KU-Marquette game.  Most 1-16 games are not half that one-sided.  The walk-ons played for the last 8 minutes, for Christ's sake.  The 33 point win is misleading--it could have been 20 points worse if Kansas had played its starters.  Incredible.  I hope we haven't shot our proverbial wad.  While it was awesome to see Kansas roll like that, simultaneously it was less satisfying--hanging in for tough wins, a la Duke and Arizona, is so much more thrilling. I didn't see the other game--it was too late.  But the highlights told me what I needed to know about Carmelo Anthony--namely that he's good.  And Syracuse can win without the zone working at all; or perhaps it worked, but I don't know how a 2-3 zone allow nearly 90 points unless it's not working.  I thought Texas was overrated coming into this thing, and they hadn't played anyone higher than a 5 seed until Syracuse.  Nevertheless, give Syracuse credit--they've bean Okla. State, Oklahoma, and Texas so far--that's the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place teams in the Big 12 this season.  Tonight's their chance to run the table.  Tonight's game. The vast majority of the pundits I've read are picking KU--everyone at ESPN excluding Fran Frischilla.  I believe that Syracuse can win, but I don't get how they can possibly be favored by anyone to win.  Anyone know the odds?  Consider: --The 2-3 will be a virtual non-factor.  Why?  Because if KU's transition game is working half as well as it did against Marquette, Syracuse won't get back in time to set up the zone for much of the game.  If KU's transition game ISN'T working, then they're in trouble anyway, and the zone isn't the cause.  It's true that in the latter case the zone will hurt KU's ability to win a half-court game, but since they'll do everything in their power to prevent that type of game at all, the question of beating the zone is really peripheral.  Everything Kansas wants to do happens before the zone. --KU's game in the semis has to be objectively considered one of the most stunning performances in the Final Four in memory.  This is not soft-minded Kansas teams of yore--this team is absolutely tearing it up.  That's not a recipe for victory, but with the ruthlessness factor, I don't get how they can be picked by anyone to lose. --Syracuse has evidently really suffered this season against solid big men (a true stat according to ESPN, though I confess I don't understand how it could be true with the 2-3).  They have no answer for Collison. --Experience/senior leadership--again, not lock-solid factors, and can be overstated, but certainly not non-factors. Before someone writes a comment explaining how Syracuse can win this game, I'll preemptively say that they can DEFINITELY win this game.  But I don't know how anyone can say the odds are in their favor.  Carmelo could have a big game.  But I thought Wade would have a big game, and it wasn't terrible, but Kansas just denied him the ball.  We'll see.  Should be good.  It will either be very close or a Kansas blowout. A word about CBS Sportsline.  Generally, the Sportsline is OK during tournament time, I think.  But their "The Edge" column today is baffling at best--if you've seen it, they give "The Edge" to teams in backcourt play, frontcourt play, center, coaching, intangibles, and overall.  For this game, they gave no edge to anyone in any category except frontcourt play, where they gave the edge to Kansas--a close call, but consider that Anthony plays in the front court for Syracuse, but CBS still gives the edge to Kansas.  How they can not give Kansas the edge in the backcourt is truly baffling, as Syracuse's freshman guard, while solid, is not in Hinrich's division.  But anyway, they give Syracuse the edge overall.  How?  What I wrote above notwithstanding, what is the point of the categories?  Idiots. Still need to decide if I'm going to sleep before the game, after the game, or try both.  2:30 AM is absolutely the worst possible time on a weeknight. Hyperbole will be again open and active during the game.  See you there. 1:59:26 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Friday, April 04, 2003

The big day--or, hopefully, the first of two big days--is tomorrow.  The game is on at midnight here, which is actually sort of reasonable.  I'll be celebrating my birthday tomorrow night, winning all of the dinars that my friends bring over for poker, and then watching Kansas take Marquette behind the shed.   So another reminder that if you want to talk Jayhawks during the game, I'll be here. Kansas is the very, very popular pick right now among NCAA pundits, including pretty much everyone at ESPN.com.  This makes me nervous.  It's amazing how comparatively little attention is being paid to the Syracuse-Texas game.  Should be a good game, either team can win, Texas is the only one seed, TJ Ford is, according to many, the player of the year, Carmelo Anthony will be the third pick in the NBA draft, etc.  But I think Marquette has captured attention because of the Kentucky beatdown, and because of Wade.  And then there's this UNC thing. Here are my thoughts on the UNC coaching situation: --I've had this argument with a couple of my friends, but I think it was an incredibly classless move for UNC to put this all on the table this week.  Doug pointed out to me that they don't have an obligation to anyone else, and I agree.  But they have created a massive distraction, and most particularly for Roy Williams.  Another friend said that this is a big week for them to scout and have all these coaches in one place.  But I simply don't buy that the Final Four is the big showcase for UNC to make their decision.  If KU loses to Marquette, will Roy no longer be considered for the job?  Get real.  It was a selfish, self-important, stupid decision, and it is reason number one why I will never root for UNC against anyone again--even Duke.  Maybe even Cincinnati.  Well, let's not go too far.  Reason number two why I'll never root for UNC again is this incredibly tiresome business about the "UNC Family".  Interviewing past players, talking about whether they would--OH MY GOD--go outside the family to find a new coach.  Look, I'm as interested in what Eric Montross has to say as the next guy, but can we let this go, please?  Are they interviewing Paul Pierce to find out what he thinks about Williams? I guess it's nice and warm and fuzzy that all Carolina alums love each other.  But for Christ's sake do we all have to be subjected to it? I'm not even stressed about Roy going.  If he goes, he goes.  Kansas will draw a great coach.  I hope he doesn't go, but we'll survive and thrive.  But UNC can kiss my ass for forcing this discussion this week. I'm already getting nervous about the semis.... 2:06:01 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Monday, March 31, 2003

I'll try and keep the Jayhawk rah-rah talk to a minimum, but you'll have to bear with me if you're not a KU fan. On the KU game: --Great, great game.  Two huge defensive plays stand out:  obviously, Kirk's block at the end, but also the charge on Walton that Langford drew.  Even bigger.  --All the talk about what a shocker the win was is annoying.  Arizona was, and should have been, favored, but it's not like this was Butler over Arizona.  Man. --KU is clicking.  It feels different than last year.  And a lot more fun, I have to say, because last year's Final Four was 100% expected.  This one isn't an upset, per se, but they've had a much rougher go of it. --I didn't think Jim Nantz could get more annoying than his constant references to the first Arizona-Kansas game, when there was never, ever any acknowledgement that maybe losing in that humiliating a fashion might have actually helped Kansas.  But then he actually became more annoying when he said that Nick Collison's lifelong dream was to stand on the podium and hear "One Shining Moment".  My lifelong dream is to beat the living shit out of Jim Nantz while Billy Packer stands and watches and sings "One Shining Moment." On the other games: --Marquette is really good, Wade particularly.  I wish I could root for them.  But no more.  More on that in a bit. --Could Oklahoma have choked any more than they did?  Syracuse is a pain in the ass team with their zone and a  lot of long players.  But they have one scorer.  Oklahoma was just terrible.  Choke.  That said, it is PREPOSTEROUS that Syracuse was put in that region.  That was absolutely 100% a home game for them with that Albany crowd.  Just total, total bullshit. --I didn't see the Texas game--too late after staying up for KU.  But it seems like they didn't play too well based on what I'm reading.  Was the San Antonio crowd as loud for them as the Albany crowd?  They got lucky with their bracket, but I think they should beat Syracuse. Upcoming games: I'm glad Kentucky lost, but KU will still have some problems with Marquette.  As near as I can tell, they've really got no one who can answer Wade.  Nash and Lee are probably going to get a lot of PT.  Diener will likely struggle, because Hinrich plays a similar game but he's so much more experienced.  One guy that really worries me is Novak--he's like 8 feet tall and nails the three with regularity.  KU just doesn't have anybody tall enough to deal with him that can play on the perimeter. Marquette really mixes up their defenses, and I suspect KU will have some adjustment problems here and there.  But KU has a huge advantage on the interior with Collison and Graves (assuming Big Jeff plays like he did against AZ and not like he did against Duke, when he was Mr. Foul).  KU has two advantages, as I see it.  The first may be small, but it helps that Marquette played such a tight game with Missouri (overtime, in fact) earlier in the tourney--Kansas played Missouri three times this season, and makes for really informed scouting when you can watch that tape while knowing Missouri's game so well.  The second is absolutely enormous--experience.  Marquette could quite easily get "happy to just be here" syndrome, and it's not just that KU has senior leadership--it's that they have senior Final Four-experienced leadership.  And that counts for a lot--see Maryland last year.  In 2001, they lose to Duke in the national semis, come back hardened for last year's Final Four, and win it.  I'm optimistic, and will pick KU as objectively as I can be.  But Marquette has impressed the hell out of me, and I am worried. As for the other game, I don't  know.  I have said before in this space that I am not impressed by Texas, and that they got lucky, I believe, in the bracket--the South was awfully easy, and things really broke their way, with MSU upsetting Maryland, with Florida (a weak two anyway) getting knocked out, and with LSU (a team I still believe would have given them trouble) getting mauled by Purdue.  But they are top to bottom a better team than Syracuse, for sure.  Still, I expect Syracuse to play loose, and the zone will hurt Texas a lot, because it makes Ford's slashing game a lot tougher and he's a bricklayer from the outside.  (Sidenote:  anyone else see a Mateen Cleaves-style NBA career for T.J. Ford?  Great slasher, good passer, fast as hell, terrible shooter, about 4 1/2 feet tall?) My prediction:  all Big-12 final.  But honestly any one of these teams could win it all.  If I had to rank them in order of likely championships, I'd give a mild nudge to Kansas due to the experience factor, then Texas, then Marquette, then Syracuse.  But Marquette is really good, and if they beat Kansas I think they'll win it all.  And, like I said before, I like them, and will root for them if they do win that game.  But for now, they are the enemy. 12:12:40 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Friday, March 28, 2003

Oh, so much to talk about today. Last Night's Games.... I can't speak with too much authority about three of the games, though I did see a chunk of the Marquette/Pitt game in addition to all of KU/Duke.  Marquette is, in my opinion, a pretty impressive team, and I wish I'd picked them to go further in my bracket.  I think Kentucky is going to be in big trouble if Bogans is out--while Kentucky doesn't per se rely upon any one player, he is indisputably their leader.  Marquette is playing very, very well, and has two badass threats in Travis Wiener Diener and Dwayne Wade.  I'm not saying Marquette will win for sure.  But I think they've got a heck of a shot.  And depending upon Bogans' health report, I'd pick 'em. As predicted, Arizona beat the holy hell out of Notre Dame, in the inevitable "bounce back from the narrow victory" game.  Now what?  KU's win is pretty impressive, given that Hinrich was absolutely without worth for the whole game, Graves was on the bench a lot, and Duke is deeper.  But KU played stunningly good defense on J.J., and my halftime prediction was really dead on--a cold spell kills the Dukies.  Collison was a beast. If I had to bet the big bucks, I suppose I'd bet on Arizona--they've proven they can beat KU, and in Lawrence no less.  But I have to repeat that I think something is slightly wrong with this Arizona team.  KU will have to play well.  But they can do it, for sure.  It will be neither a surprise nor an upset if they win, but they're certainly the underdogs.  KU's advantage is, again, Collison, as I don't know if Arizona really has anyone with the defensive presence to deal with him.  Walton, maybe, but I think he gives up several inches.  In height, too.  I suppose I give a marginal edge to Arizona, but it ain't much.  Tonight's Games.... I won't see any of these games, unfortunately, but no one but KU will get me out of bed at 4 AM.  Texas-UConn--Should be a good game.  Count me in as the "Not Sold On Texas" crowd, though TJ Ford is obviously a stud.  The South is crazy--in the bracket that I'm running, every team from the one seed to the seven seed was chosen by someone.  Wild.  UConn impressed me a lot against Stanford, and I think this will be the best game of the night. Maryland-MSU--Experience versus no experience.  Both teams played tremendously well in the second round, with Maryland's win over Xavier a little more impressive than MSU's blowout of a sickeningly overrated Florida squad.  Maryland has, in my mind, a big edge here.  A bunch of that team has been to the Final Four twice. OU-Butler--Love Butler, but whatever.  Excluding Gonzaga 1999, these Cinderella's absolutely never get to the Elite Eight.  Syracuse-Auburn--Another whatever.  But I'll use this opportunity to bash the committee for putting Syracuse--the 3 seed--in Albany.  What a sham.  How can the committee be so stupid?  OU-Syracuse should still be good. We'll know by the end of the weekend, but my predicted Final Four is Kentucky, Kansas, Maryland, Oklahoma.  1:43:23 PM    Let's hear it. []

Christ, how did KU do that?  Hinrich had 2 points, I think.  Collison--wow.  It's 6 AM and I've been up for two hours. 6:01:07 AM    Let's hear it. []

	Thursday, March 27, 2003

Four big games tonight.  Can the two heavy favorites, Kentucky and Arizona, get into the Elite Eight?  I think so, but I wouldn't be surprised to see one of them go tonight.  Check that--I'd be very surprised to see Arizona go.  I think the scare against Gonzaga is going to cause them to beat the holy hell out of Notre Dame.  But, then again, Notre Dame does nothing but shoot the three, and if they're on fire who knows what will happen?  As for Kentucky, I know they're good, but I'm persuaded by the argument that coming in with a 25 game winning streak isn't a good thing.  I changed all of my three brackets before the tournament and now have Kentucky winning none of them, though all three have them in the Final Four.  I think there's going to be a surprise.  Remember Duke v. Indiana, Sweet 16 last year?  DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES??????  No.  Wisconsin will lose. Marquette/Pitt should be a hell of a game.  Two bruiser teams with some finesse at the point in Travis "The Wiener" Diener and Brandin Knight.  Marquette impressed me.  I'm predicting Marquette. Kansas/Duke is the game everyone's talking about, but Duke's going to have to play a fantastic game.  Something I read somewhere reminded me that Duke's schedule in the last five games has really been terrible, when it comes right down to, and prior to that stretch they were looking like a four or five seed--they've beaten Virginia, NC, NC State, Colorado State and CMU down the stretch.  Whoopie.  They're Duke--they certainly could win--but they don't have the experience or the muscle, I think.  Now if Collison gets in foul trouble, look out.  But I predict a tight game, with Kansas pulling away at the end to win by 11. Either way, I'm going to miss the first round of games tonight, and then set my alarm for 4 AM to watch the KU-Duke game.  2:13:28 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Monday, March 24, 2003

I didn't watch much yesterday, though I did see the Butler-Louisville game.  My thoughts on it include the following: --Eat it raw, Pitino --I have never seen so many consecutive threes in one game --Nothing was more hilarious than when Louisville stopped the clock by fouling the guy who shot 97.1% this season and has only missed 8 free throws his entire college career --Reece Gaines either has the greatest jump-stop move in the history of basketball, or he travels on every single move and never gets called.  Both are inexplicable It was a great game.  Gosh, it's really surprising that Florida didn't live up to their 2 seed.  I'm shocked.  Look, upsets happen, but if you deserve to be the two seed you don't lose by 22 points to the seven seed.  Maryland is such a good six seed that I'm shocked the committee hasn't just moved them out to the West bracket. In the "If I Could Do It Over Again" Category, here's how I would have picked the winners from here on out: Kentucky, Marquette, Arizona, Kansas, UConn, Maryland, Oklahoma, Syracuse Kentucky, Kansas, UConn, Oklahoma Kentucky, Oklahoma Kentucky But if that Kentucky-Kansas game comes to pass, it could be a barnburner.  If KU plays like they did against ASU, they are literally unbeatable.  Of course, there's no chance they will play like that again. In the "If Things Went Like I'd Like" Category: Wisconsin, Marquette, Notre Dame, Kansas, UConn, Michigan State, Butler, Auburn Wisconsin, Kansas, Michigan State, Butler Kansas, Butler Kansas If I'm not mistaken, the Kansas-Duke game will be on at 4 AM here on Friday morning.  I'm getting up early, I guess, rather than staying up. 2:07:00 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Sunday, March 23, 2003

I'm upgrading the Gonzaga-Arizona game to the best game I've ever seen.  The more I think about it, the more sure I am that this is true.  I'm not saying it's the best ever--I didn't see the '92 Kentucky-Duke Elite Eight game, for instance, and I don't really remember the Houston-NC State championship game.  Those games weren't double overtime, though.  Crushing loss for the Zags, man.  Kansas beat the living crap out of ASU yesterday--no team should lose by 32 points in the second round.  That's worse than any of the 1-16 matchups.  I had decided to stay up and watch the KU game--starting 2:30 AM here.  But after KU jumped on top, I decided I'd wait until they were up by 20--which happened 12 minutes in.  Got some extra sleep. I misfired on the Duke-CMU game.  Badly.  Arizona.  I've said this before--they just don't impress me.  I can't put my finger on it.  Just missing something.  I will say this--Luke Walton, who doesn't seem like much of a scorer, is an absolutely incredible passer.  I couldn't believe how well he picked up cutters yesterday, repeatedly.  Just a badass passer.  No chance to star in the NBA. The Gonzaga-Arizona game was so good it overshadowed another OT game--Marquette-Missouri.  And it overshadowed a three-pointer-to-win-with-one-second-on-the-clock masterpiece between Tulsa and Wisconsin.  UConn is pretty good, I think.  They'll beat Texas if Purdue doesn't do it first. No games I'm really intrigued by today, I must admit.  But I'm sure they'll be some good ones.   1:38:26 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Saturday, March 22, 2003

A few notes on yesterday's games. --What the hell happened to LSU?  It's 32-32 at halftime.  I'm watching the Penn/OSU game, and so I can see the scores flashing by at the top of the screen.  Purdue's up 34-32.  36-42.  40-32.  45-32.  I have LSU rolling to the Elite Eight in one bracket, the Final Four (What the hell was that all about?) in a nother.  And I can't stand Purdue or Gene Keady.  So this really stunning.  Finally, after Purdue is up 16 at 48-32, LSU actually scores.  What a collapse!  Rare to get a total blowout in the 8/9 game like that. --Central Michigan is going to beat Duke today, so Kansas won't have to play Duke in the Sweet 16 after we put the beatdown on ASU today.  I'm staying up until 3:30 AM to watch the KU game, so if AFN doesn't show it, I'm going nuclear.  --Wake really should not have won that game.  Fortunately for them, they now get to play "How the hell did we get into this tournament, anyway?" Auburn.  Kudos to Josh Howard from Wake for actually having an opinion about the war, right or wrong. --Boy, I would have REALLY been screwed in my brackets if Maryland had lost.  Thanks, Drew Nicholas. --How are the Big Ten and the Big East undefeated?  What in the world?  Unfortunately, Notre Dame and Illinois play each other, so they can't all lose in Round 2.  Though I'm pretty sure Wisconsin will beat Tulsa. --This just in:  Dick Vitale believes that Hollis Price is tough and won't let his team lose.  Also, he likes UConn's athleticism, and is willing to talk about it even when the question posed to him is about the 1-8 game in the West bracket. --Missouri-Marquette has got to be the game of the day today, excepting Central Michigan's impending blowout upset of Duke. 2:25:52 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Friday, March 21, 2003

For the love of God, can Kansas just cruise through the first round for once?  Christ. Everyone who watches the tournament yearly has experienced the frustration with CBS' coverage of the games, regional obligations, all of this.  My best story concerns the 1995 tournament. I lived in Los Angeles at the time.  That year, Villanova was a 3 seed and a very, very popular "sleeper" Final Four pick--they'd absolutely kicked ass down the stretch and looked extremely strong.  Then, in the first round, the fourteenth seed, Old Dominion, took them to the wire.  Overtime.  Double Overtime. Triple Overtime.  Then, in the middle of the third overtime, 90 seconds to go, ODU up by one, CBS CUTS AWAY for the tip off of the UCLA-Florida International game!  The tip-off!  And, you may recall, '95 was the year that UCLA won the title, so this wasn't just any game--this was the 1-16 game.  UCLA ultimately won by 65 points.  I have never been so outraged. Anyway, I thought yesterday was going to be a tremendous basketball experience, as AFN had devoted three of its six channels to the tournament--and there were three different games.  I was flipping back and forth between Gonzaga-Cincy, Marquette-Holy Cross, and Cal-NCState.  Unless you have Direct TV, you know that this is an awesome situation.  Then we attacked, and dropped to one channel for the remainder of the evening.  OK.  Disappointing, but it is war, after all. What was most annoying is that AFN seems to refuse to switch games.  I got saddled with the wretched Vermont/Arizona game, and with 8 minutes to go and Arizona up by 25, CBS took us to the Missouri/SIU game--surely the best game of the day.  They had 3 minutes to go.  After ten seconds, AFN suddenly CUT BACK to the blowout, independent of CBS!  I almost threw up. General comments about the day. --Arizona, blowout notwithstanding, was NOT impressive yesterday.  I thought they looked really lackluster.  It's hard to pin it down, but I just felt like they had no passion at all.  There's a blowout, and there's a blowout, and this was an easy game that they didn't appear to give a damn about.  I could see a passionate Gonzaga doing the impossible. --I can't believe that Weber lost.  They must have all been stoned. --Several people had talked up Memphis as a Kansas upsetter.  Ha! --If I see Dick Vitale talk one more damned time about how tough Hollis Price is and how he won't let OU lose because he wants to get back to his hometown of New Orleans, I'm going to poke him in his good eye. --I really, really believe that CMU is going to upset Duke.  I picked that upset in two of my three brackets, but wish I had in all three.  --Man, SIU got El Shafto.  As King Kaufman put it on Salon.com today, that SIU guy had enough time to plant his feet and smoke a cigarette before Paulding plowed into him.  But I picked Missouri, so eat it, Salukis. --In general, good games, but surprisingly few upsets.  By the numbers, only four out of sixteen lower seeds won, and I don't think anyone counts Gonz over the revolting Cincy.  I love it when Cincinnati loses.  Hate 'em. --Watching games here is odd and cool, but the second wave of games doesn't start until 2 AM, so that's a killer. 1:22:10 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Thursday, March 20, 2003

I'm in three different pools and have picked three different winners and six different finalists:  Winners:  Kentucky, Arizona, Kansas.  Finalists:  Oklahoma, Syracuse, Wake Forest In one pool I took the leap and picked Manhattan over Syracuse.  That's right.  The upsets I picked in every bracket include Weber over Wisconsin, for two reasons--first, the Big Ten sucks, and second, because everyone I know from Weber competes for the Biggest Stoner In Human History award, and I find this worthy of note.  I also picked Central Michigan over Creighton in every bracket, and San Diego over Stanford. All of these picks will come true.  I offer my personal guarantee. 1:03:31 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Wednesday, March 19, 2003

--The games must go on!  The NCAA has decided to let the tournament go on as scheduled.   An interesting article today on ESPN.com argues that we should postpone the tournament for the war.  His point is well made, but I don't know if I agree.  It felt, to me, like postponement of the NFL and baseball after 9/11 was absolutely correct.  But, at a gut level, stopping games for the war seems different to me.  I have to think about it some more.  Anyone who has thoughts on this to persuade me one way or another is welcome to comment. --On a more trivial subject, I'm considering picking Central Michigan to upset Duke.  The more I read about that team, the more I think they may have what it takes.  And Duke is a fast team, but their inside game sucks, which is why they can't beat Kansas if it comes to that.  This guy Chris Kaman, center for CMU, sounds like Duke's nightmare.  But Mike Kryzyzyzyzyzyzzyewskizyesik is such a badass.  Leaning towards Duke.  At any rate, CMU is going to kick Creighton in the Jimmy. --I also really want to pick Manhattan, but I don't think they can take Syracuse.  --Which number two seed is most likely to lose round one?  Some smartass will say Kansas, but it's gotta be Florida.  --Anyone picking a number one seed to lose in the second round besides Texas?  I thought about Oprahoma, but instead I have them in the Finals. --I am sick of Dick Vitale.  I as a general rule have enjoyed him, but all the times I've seen him and in every article he's written in the past week he says the same stuff:  Kentucky is great, the Big East got screwed, Pitt should be a one seed, Auburn shouldn't be in, and Maryland is a good six seed.  Even though some of that is true, it seems to me, based on seeing Dickie V on TV that he is unable to talk about anything else.  He's asked who is a sleeper in the Midwest, and he babbles for ten minutes about how Tubby Smith is going to cut down the nets.  It's annoying.  Can he not improvise to answer the f'ing question?  Digger Phelps is far, far better as a commentator, and Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi put them both to shame.  Bilas, too.   2:24:40 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Tuesday, March 18, 2003

Bracket thoughts: --I'll copy something here directly from Joe Lunardi's bracket analysis on ESPN.com, since I can't say it any better myself: "Bracketologist/POINT: You ruined an otherwise excellent set of evaluations by pretty much bungling the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. If these highest seeds are a "tournament within a tournament," as you frequently tell us, take a look at these side-by-side comparisons and answer honestly as to which seems more balanced: OPTION A WEST/Arizona vs. Kansas MIDWEST/Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh SOUTH/Texas vs. Florida EAST/ Oklahoma vs. Wake Forest OPTION B WEST/Arizona vs. Texas EAST/Kentucky vs. Wake Forest MIDWEST/Oklahoma vs. Syracuse SOUTH Kansas vs. Pittsburgh By my read (and that of most analysts, I suspect), "Option A" has the obvious top two teams paired with the obvious best of the No. 2 seeds. It also gives a No. 1 seed to the one Big 12 contender that won neither the regular-season nor conference tournament title. "Option B," on the other hand, splits Kentucky and Arizona into opposite sides of the bracket and also juggles their potential Elite Eight opponents a little more fairly. This ain't perfect (as the third Big 12 team must be kept apart from the two No. 1 seeds from that conference), but it is a much more balanced draw than Option A. A side benefit is Syracuse being a No. 2 ahead of sagging Florida and the Orange not getting a regional "home" site in Albany. Committee Chair/COUNTERPOINT: Option B is clearly better, that's why we scrapped Option A. Oh, you mean we didn't scrap Option A?" --This BYU situation is farcical.  In case you don't know about this, BYU doesn't play on Sunday, and the Committee just botched it completely by putting them in a situation where if they win their first two games, they could play Sunday, and they've said they won't.  So rather than making a logical switch now, the NCAA is banking on the fact that BYU--a twelve seed--will lose.  If they don't, then they will swap brackets for the Sweet 16!  How could the NCAA create the problem AND botch the solution?!!!  --The South bracket is so easy that I could win it myself. --My biggest first round upsets are San Diego over Stanford, Weber State over Wisconsin, and Penn over Oklahoma State.  I think there's another one in there.  I have LSU over Texas in round two (I watched two LSU games last week--that's a good team) and Weber State in the Sweet 16.  Yup. --It kills me to have to pick between Missouri and SIU.  I love to pick the Mo Valley, but I sort of like Missouri (may God not strike me down) and believe that they are a team unlikely to blow off SIU.  I was hoping to SIU against, say, Florida, or some weak-ass Big Ten or Big East chump. --Why is Auburn a ten seed?  Their entry is indefensible, the seeding comical. --My final four picks are Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Maryland.  I know the Kansas pick is a longshot in that bracket, so no mockery is necessary.  But I learned a couple of years ago that if I pick KU to lose early it really is unsatisfying for me, because then I root for them in a mildly tempered way.  Maryland is, I imagine, a popular pick, but that bracket smells to high heaven.  I picked Kentucky to win it all--I don't know how you can't.  But that's not an invulnerable team, by any stretch.  Better teams have failed to win it all--see UNLV '91, Kansas '97, Duke '99. 2:34:42 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Monday, March 17, 2003

I'm a Kansas homer.  I know it. I have to get this out of my system.  Bear with me.  There is no legitimate defense of giving Texas a one seed over Kansas.  Follow me through the  committee's logic. We'll start with the premise that after tournament craziness, only four teams were competing for the last two one seeds--OU, Texas, Kansas, Pitt.  This seems clear. Just as clearly, the committee decided that Pitt's numbers weren't good enough, despite their conference and tournament play, to get a one seed.  So they excluded them right away.  Whether or not this is fair is not my point here; I agree with that decision, but it's subjective.  Either way, it's obviously what was decided. So it's down to two of the three Big 12 teams, right?  The numbers are so close as to be irrelevant--they are all between 3 and 6 in SOS and they are 3,4,5 in RPI.  Not worth considering as distinguishing factors. Head to head is screwy--Kansas beat Texas, Texas beat OU, OU beat Kansas.  Not much help there.  What's next? Conference tournament--right.  OU wins the tournament, gets a one.  I have absolutely no problem with this.  It's correct.  So it's KU v. Texas.  But KU beat Texas.  And KU went one round further in the conference tournament.  And KU won the conference tournament outright.  So we'll give it to Texas! Am I missing something? Oh,  but that's not the only level of screwing KU received.  Bear with me:  Kansas clearly has to be considered the strongest 2 seed, right?  This can't be debatable.  And so given that, you'd think they put them with a weaker one seed, and closer to home.  Nope.  Ship 'em out West!  Put 'em with Arizona!  This is logical. AND all commentators are in agreement that the West is an absolutely preposterous bracket.  Let's break down the seeds and see what we see: One seeds:  UK, Arizona, Texas, OU It's a bit of a tossup between Kentucky and Arizona (UK gets my vote, but it's close) for the strongest of these four teams.  Arizona is right there.  They are in the West. Two seeds:  Kansas, Wake, Pitt, Florida Florida?  Are you freaking kidding me?  They lost their last three games!  Pitt had a good year, but based on the numbers this one is a laugher.  KU is the best two seed.  They are in the West. Three seeds:  Duke, Marquette, Xavier, Syracuse Closer here, but I think we can agree that Marquette and Xavier are a bit behind the other two.  Close between Duke and Syracuse, but if you watched the ACC tournament you know that Duke is darned good.  'Cuse is good, but they have less experience and worse coaching and they play in the Big East.  Best three seed IMO?  Duke.  They are in the West. Four seeds:  Illinois, Louisville, Stanford, Dayton Illinois crushes all comers in the Big Ten tournament, gets a four seed.  What?  What?  Lousville collapsed down the stretch, Stanford is massively overrated in a weaker conference, Dayton is a team you gotta cheer for but they won the A-10.  Come on.  Illinois blows these guys away.  They're in the West.  The West is an absolute bloodbath. Biggest atrocities in the top four seeds:  Kansas underseeding, Florida overseeding, and placement.  Can anyone explain the thinking behind putting Duke and Illinois in the WEST bracket, putting Stanford in the SOUTH?  Just to name a few. OK.  I'll try and keep complaining to a dull roar.  Later today:  A review of the East bracket. 11:43:43 AM    Let's hear it. []

	Saturday, March 15, 2003

Let's Talk Number Ones Again.... It's early Saturday morning in the States, and a lot of this stuff will flesh itself out today.  Who's still got a shot at the one seeds? Arizona--yup Kentucky--yup Kansas--with Texas, Florida, Marquette all losing, Kansas is probably in, barring a truly amazing set of circumstances.  But a win at Missouri seals the deal.  They control their fate irrespective of any other games that they are involved in or are not involved in. Texas--yikes--ugly loss to Texas Tech hurts chances a lot.  What has to happen?  Either Kansas or Oklahoma has to lose today.  If Kansas wins, then Texas is fighting for the last spot with Oklahoma, Pitt, and possibly Wake Forest.  The only way to absolutely secure a spot is for Oklahoma, Pitt, and Wake to all lose today.  If all these things don't happen, Texas could still get a one seed, but it's tougher. Oklahoma--Must get to Big 12 finals, and probably needs to win it.  If they win the tournament, they get the one seed, period.  If they beat Kansas, those two teams are in. Pittsburgh--Must win the Big East tournament today.  If they lose to UConn, they're done.  If they win, they have a chance, but they must have either Kansas lose today, or Oklahoma lose today.  Pitt's RPI was 16 as of Monday, which is a lot lower than it needs to be if they expect that seed.  They're behind BYU, Georgia, Stanford, Louisville, etc.  They get props for winning the Big East, but I don't see this happening. Wake Forest--Must win ACC tournament and needs Kansas, Oklahoma, and Pittsburgh to all lose today.  Their RPI of 8 is good, but this team doesn't get any respect, whether they deserve it or not.  My prediction:  Kansas sails today, gets the third spot, and Oklahoma wins, meaning that it will come down to a judgement call between Texas and Oklahoma.  I'm guessing Texas gets the edge, because they beat OU twice.  I can't see Pitt or Wake slipping in there. 2:09:50 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Friday, March 14, 2003

My God!  Did you see the end of the Colorado-Kansas State game?  KSU up 2, 3 seconds left, KSU guy intercepts inbounds pass and takes several celebatory steps, stupidly.  Colorado gets the ball.  With 1.9 seconds, guy takes the inbounds pass, and banks in a three as time expires.  Man.  That should secure a bid for Colorado. Can you believe that hated UCLA beat Arizona?  Wow.  Of course, UCLA has virtually no chance to win 2 more in the PAC-10 tournament, but Stanford also lost out there, so..... And Marquette lost to UAB--so much for the fanciful notion that they could get a one seed.  Pretty awesome for what is usually a much more dull conference tournament day.  Going to be a good three weeks ahead. 1:59:51 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Tuesday, March 11, 2003

*I hate these few days before the conference tournaments start.  And, yeah, there are mid-majors having tournaments, but I'm not as interested in those teams until the NCAA itself, then I love all mid-majors immediately.  And those games aren't on here, anyway.  So I'm just waiting for Friday.  I guess Thursday.  *Georgia's decision to kill the season is pretty tough to defend, in my mind.  There's a lot of perfectly legit, good kids that get the shaft there.  It's all about heading off the NCAA, but these players are the fall guys.  I hope Harrick never gets another job, the bastard. *This morning I got to see Gonzaga lose in the tournament finals to U. San Diego.  Awesome.  I like the Zags, but you have to like USD.  Minnesota and NC State and SIU can't like it, but whatever.  *Is Carmelo Anthony the best player in the country?  He's a total stud, it seems, and has impressed me a lot on Sportscenter, but TJ Ford was really something in that OU game this past weekend.  They say that Hinrich will be the first senior to go in the NBA draft.  *I love to hate Cincinnati, and it's going to hurt to not be able to laugh when they get a top seed an lose early again.  Bob Huggins and Jim Harrick can kiss each other's asses. *I'm killing time until the big games start.  Can you tell? 2:55:56 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Sunday, March 09, 2003

Big weekend just finished up.  Per the discussion of number one seeds, here's how the relevant games came out: --Florida lost to Kentucky at home --Oklahoma really blew it at home against Texas --Kansas beat Missouri on the road If the number one seeds were assigned right now, before conference tourneys, I have to think Texas and Kansas would get the seeds.  Oklahoma lost to Texas twice, so they have to win the Big 12 tourney to get the one seed.  Kansas beat Texas head to head, and in beating MU Kansas won the Big 12 title outright.  That's an easy call. What to do with Florida?  I think the loss at home has to hurt them.  If Florida were to get a one seed, Kansas has to get the other on the strength of the win over Texas and the Big 12 title. Tournaments will screw all this up. A couple of other thoughts: --Can we finally put to rest this preposterous notion that Texas Tech is a bubble team?  Any team with those credentials not coached by Bobby Knight wouldn't even be discussed.  --Guess the number of non Big 12 or SEC teams in the Sweet 16.   I think they'll make up half the bracket.  Maybe 9 teams, even.  --Troy State will win it all. --Kansas beat Missouri in Columbia.  Oh, the pain for Tigers fans must be intense. 10:58:11 PM    Let's hear it. []

	Wednesday, March 05, 2003

Here's our first day of March Madness Hyperbole--nevermind the fact that it is March 5th.  Look, there's still 15 days before the Big Dance begins.  So I deserve some slack.  Are you looking for analysis backed by a wealth of statistical support?  Are you looking for the unvarnished truth about Bubble Teams?  Are you looking for a fair and balanced view of the likely outcome of the NCAA tournament?  Are you looking for good advice on how to fill out your bracket?  My friends, you have come to the wrong place.  On this page, I intend to repeat information you can find elsewhere, minimize my use of statistics, offer wild conjecture while doing little to no research beforehand, ignore huge sections of the NCAAs, and I'm biased towards the Kansas Jayhawks, as I grew up only 30 minutes from Lawrence.  Oh, and I live in Tunisia, so I unfortunately don't even get to watch that many games. Let's get started. Who will get the four one seeds in the NCAA bracket? Very interesting this year.  Two of the top seeds, as most if not all pundits agree, are locked up for Arizona and Kentucky.  It looks like the other two top seeds will go to some combination of Florida, and the three Big 12 elite teams:  Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.  There are some people who make noises about Marquette and Wake Forest and Pittsburgh, but that's crazy talk.  Those teams are in weak-ass conferences, play soft schedules, and can't compete with Kansas. Florida certainly had the inside track to one spot, until they lost to the despicable Jim Harrick and Georgia yesterday.  Now they've got trouble, because they have to play Kentucky this weekend.  IF they win that game, I've gotta think they're a shoe-in for that one seed, barring a first-round stumble in the SEC tournament.  But they're going to lose.  For my money, that puts them behind the other three teams.  But..... Oprahoma plays Texas this weekend.  And Kansas plays Missouri in Columbia, which is a nightmarish place to play for non-Missourians--just last week MU beat Oprahoma by about 145 points in Columbia, and this after OU had put the beatdown on Kansas.  So those games are going to complicate things.  If Kansas loses, then the winner of the TX-OU game will have a leg up.  And bank on it--that's going to be Oklahoma.  The game is in Norman, and to top it off it's Senior Day, and there's no stinking chance that Hollis Price is going to have anything but a monster game.  Over. But.... Oklahoma lost to Texas earlier this year.  And KU lost to OU.  But KU beat Texas!  Whew!  My prediction:  the winner of the Big 12 tournament (assuming it's one of those three) gets the one seed for sure.  If FL loses to Kentucky, it's a tossup for the last one seed. 2:08:20 PM    Let's hear it. []

© Copyright 2003 Jim Haefele. Last update: 4/7/2003; 1:59:39 PM.