March Madness Hyperbole
If you're looking for biased, statistically unsound, off-the-cuff conjecture that always results in the conclusion that Kansas will win the NCAA Tournament, you've come to the right place.

 
































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  Tuesday, March 18, 2003


Bracket thoughts:

--I'll copy something here directly from Joe Lunardi's bracket analysis on ESPN.com, since I can't say it any better myself:

"Bracketologist/POINT: You ruined an otherwise excellent set of evaluations by pretty much bungling the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. If these highest seeds are a "tournament within a tournament," as you frequently tell us, take a look at these side-by-side comparisons and answer honestly as to which seems more balanced:

OPTION A  
WEST/Arizona vs. Kansas MIDWEST/Kentucky vs. Pittsburgh
SOUTH/Texas vs. Florida  EAST/ Oklahoma vs. Wake Forest
OPTION B
WEST/Arizona vs. Texas EAST/Kentucky vs. Wake Forest 
MIDWEST/Oklahoma vs. Syracuse SOUTH Kansas vs. Pittsburgh  

By my read (and that of most analysts, I suspect), "Option A" has the obvious top two teams paired with the obvious best of the No. 2 seeds. It also gives a No. 1 seed to the one Big 12 contender that won neither the regular-season nor conference tournament title.

"Option B," on the other hand, splits Kentucky and Arizona into opposite sides of the bracket and also juggles their potential Elite Eight opponents a little more fairly. This ain't perfect (as the third Big 12 team must be kept apart from the two No. 1 seeds from that conference), but it is a much more balanced draw than Option A. A side benefit is Syracuse being a No. 2 ahead of sagging Florida and the Orange not getting a regional "home" site in Albany.

Committee Chair/COUNTERPOINT: Option B is clearly better, that's why we scrapped Option A. Oh, you mean we didn't scrap Option A?"

--This BYU situation is farcical.  In case you don't know about this, BYU doesn't play on Sunday, and the Committee just botched it completely by putting them in a situation where if they win their first two games, they could play Sunday, and they've said they won't.  So rather than making a logical switch now, the NCAA is banking on the fact that BYU--a twelve seed--will lose.  If they don't, then they will swap brackets for the Sweet 16!  How could the NCAA create the problem AND botch the solution?!!! 

--The South bracket is so easy that I could win it myself.

--My biggest first round upsets are San Diego over Stanford, Weber State over Wisconsin, and Penn over Oklahoma State.  I think there's another one in there.  I have LSU over Texas in round two (I watched two LSU games last week--that's a good team) and Weber State in the Sweet 16.  Yup.

--It kills me to have to pick between Missouri and SIU.  I love to pick the Mo Valley, but I sort of like Missouri (may God not strike me down) and believe that they are a team unlikely to blow off SIU.  I was hoping to SIU against, say, Florida, or some weak-ass Big Ten or Big East chump.

--Why is Auburn a ten seed?  Their entry is indefensible, the seeding comical.

--My final four picks are Kentucky, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Maryland.  I know the Kansas pick is a longshot in that bracket, so no mockery is necessary.  But I learned a couple of years ago that if I pick KU to lose early it really is unsatisfying for me, because then I root for them in a mildly tempered way.  Maryland is, I imagine, a popular pick, but that bracket smells to high heaven.  I picked Kentucky to win it all--I don't know how you can't.  But that's not an invulnerable team, by any stretch.  Better teams have failed to win it all--see UNLV '91, Kansas '97, Duke '99.


2:34:42 PM    Let's hear it. []


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