Changing Horses
Finally, the message got through to the Bush Administration, that the WMD and al Quaeda angles were not going to be enough to secure public backing for an attack on Iraq. So, last night the message changed, with Bush almost exclusively pushing for an invasion to "bring Democracy to Iraq".
Some thoughts:
You might say that in addition to "bringing Democracy", we will also be bringing "a massive permanent military presence", and no one from the Administration seems to be putting forth much effort to deny that reality. The implications of that presence are many.
For starters, it extends the U.S.'s already formidable power-projection capabilities in the region. With the wrapping just taken off of a brand new Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh, and another massive military base under construction in Qatar, we are already in a position strong enough to compel the Saudis to let us stage large-scale war operations there, despite the fact that they don't want us there. Once we have 50,000 troops in Iraq in permanent installations, that power will only grow.
I think the key is who leads the new Iraqi government, and how quickly the top-level of the government can be seen as independent of the U.S. That may never happen, but it is possible to have a large military presence in a country, and still not be seen as a colonial power. If we install a U.S. government, we won't be able to shake the image that we are the Mid East's new imperialists, replacing Britain. The fact that we don't have a colonial history in the region still plays well with many of the mainstream citizens there; if that goes out the window, it's just more fuel for the anti-American fire.
Having said that, it is difficult on face value to oppose a democritization push in Iraq, though there are many people who doubt that is possible. It does dovetail nicely with the interests of the U.S. and controlling Iraqi oil, because it's hard to have a democratic nation when the state controls 90% of the production means, as in the case in most Arab oil nations.
More than anything, I think this represents a massive failure by the Bush Administration. This is now attempt #3 to justify this invasion, and people around the world and here at home are keeping track. Even if #3 turned out to be the right reason to go in, it sure looks bad to have tried to strong-arm two other justifications, only to have people shout them down. This, for an Administration that is already looking very bad both at home and abroad.
This is their Hail Mary, and there are no more plays left in the playbook.
12:44:00 PM 
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