Enough fancy talk. Let's do some prognosticatin'
AL West
A's-The A's continue to have the best rotation in baseball with Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Ted Lilly will join up as the fourth man this year, meaning they have three talented lefties on the starting staff. The offensive talent isn't what it once was, but between Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Erubiel Durazo, they'll score enough to win big. The biggest questions are whether Keith Foulke can be a stopper at the back of the bullpen, whether Tejada's impending free agency will distract the team, and how fast a start this team can get off to. I like their chances to continue their dominant stretch, but the window is closing fast on a team that could have been one for the ages.
Angels-A team without any bona fide superstars, but with many very good players. I'm still not sold on the rotation of John Lackey, Kevin Appier, Ramon Ortiz and Jarrod Washburn and Aaron Sele. Washburn looks like a developing ace, and Lackey's going to be good, but Appier's getting up there in years and I still think Ortiz is an arm injury waiting to happen. The bullpen is fantastic, but they could use another great arm from the left side. From the right side, they are the best in the majors. They'll make it a race to the end, and have a great shot at the Wild Card.
Mariners-A team in transition, with many of the players left over from their 2001 juggernaut that turned into a jugger-not in the playoffs. But some key players have some years on them now, with John Olerud, Bret Boone and Edgar Martinez leading the list. Still pretty good players, but this team is no longer the cream of the crop. The pitching is solid with Freddy Garcia, Jamie Moyer and Joel Piniero anchoring the starting staff. But is Kaz Sasaki healthy? And how will they respond to new manager Bob Melvin, who quit his gig in the rock band The Melvins to take over for Lou Piniella? Sometimes teams flourish after getting away from a strong personality like Sweet Lou. I expect this to be a good team, maybe a 90 win team. But that's not going to be enough this year.
Rangers-One of these days, somebody in Texas is going to figure out that you need to be able to pitch and play defense to win ballgames. That day has not yet arrived. GM John Hart has assembled a formidable collection of offensive talent, starting with the best player in the game, Alex Rodriguez. There are young studs coming up like Game favorite Hank Blalock and Mark Teixeira to go along with Raffy Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez; scoring runs won't be a problem. But the pitching staff? Texas has some good young arms, but they seem reluctant to throw them. All last year, they knew they were building for the future, yet they refused to put Joaquin Benoit and Colby Lewis into roles where they could get innings under their belts. They still have to sort out who can pitch and who can't, meaning this team is already likely looking to 2004. The bullpen isn't much better, with Ugueth Urbina in the closer's spot. With new micro-manager Buck Showalter on board, this team is going to implode in an ugly way. Expect Hart to be shown the door after this disaster season.
AL Central
Twins-They won 94 games last year with 3/5ths of their rotation missing nearly half the season, and with only three offensive players having better than expected seasons. The entire infield slumped badly. Of the regulars, only Doug Mientkiewicz and Corey Koskie are above age 28. They can reasonably be expected to be better this year. The bullpen remains one of the best in the game, especially from the left side, though they did have to throw a lot of innings last year. They have depth at the major and minor-league levels, they have pitching depth, and they are young AND experience on their side. It ain't no fluke, despite what the White Sox and Oakland A's want to believe.
White Sox-The White Sox can't help but be better this season. Adding Bartolo Colon gives them a powerful duo at the front of the rotation, along with Mark Buehrle. Of course, they are still awful in the field, and slow afoot on the basepaths. And some of them still seem to think that they are the team to beat, while others just want the yapping inside the clubhouse to stop. I don't often think chemistry matters much on a team, but that lockerroom has been a disaster the last couple of years. The biggest questions are whether Billy Kroch can put his failures in last year's playoffs to rest, and whether Dan Wright and Jon Garland can continue to improve in the 3 and 4 spots in the rotation. The Twins won't run away and hide like they did last year, but this White Sox team is going to have to dramatically improve in a lot of ways to make it to the final week in contention. They can start by figuring out how to actually beat the Twins, who have OWNED them the last two years. Yeah, that's right. Bring it, you Southside babies. You cry like you got the colic.
Indians-This team is rebuilding, but man, do they have some good, young talent. Brandon Phillips, Travis Hafner, Josh Bard, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Billy Traber, and a few others. They won't contend this year, but it won't be long before they do. I was sad to see Jim Thome leave Cleveland for a number of reasons. I despised their team for so long because of Mike Hargrove, Roberto Alomar, and Kenny Lofton, and the way they rubbed the Twins' noses in it for so long. But Thome always had class, and a massive bat with great plate discipline. If Philly fans don't love Jim Thome, they don't love themselves.
Royals-It pains me to see my former team wallow in self-pity and incompetence. The conversations that Billy Beane has in the NYT Magazine link above have taken place multiple times with Royals GMs, only the outcomes for the Royals weren't just a loss of a situational left-hander. The Royals have almost literally given the A's so much primo talent over the years, Baseball America has named the Royals the minor-league affiliate of the year in Oakland's farm system. Still, there is progress in Kansas City. We won't see the results on the field this year, but perhaps in 2005. They have committed to their young pitching, which is a major step in the right direction. They will get hammered this year, but that's what you have to do (see Twins: 1998 to 2000). There is also relatively young offensive talent in Angel Berroa (who in fairness did come over from the A's in the Johnny Damon deal) and Ken Harvey. There is also premier offensive talent in Carlos Beltran and Mike Sweeney, but how long will they be around before the Royals dump their salary? That's been the problem for years in KC-cheap and incompetent ownership. David Glass, you come from Wal-Mart money, man! Spend it. Kansas City is a great baseball town. If you build a winner, they will come. Oh, and advice for Royals GM Allard Baird: Don't take Billy Beane's calls!
Tigers-Awful. Just awful. Some young pitching, and a new middle infield that won't hit at all this year, and perhaps never will. Nominal "sluggers" in Carlos Pena and Eric Munson, though both are still young enough to improve. Their "star", Bobby Higginson, is a good player, but he is dramatically overpaid, and can't be moved via trade. All the Tigers can do is sit and wait for the youth to develop, and wait for those huge contracts to move off the payroll. Problem is, their young players aren't really regarded as being all that special, despite having been taken with some high picks in the draft. The Tigers will get a few more high picks to distinguish their scouting and development abilities. It will be 2005, minimum, before the Tigers can even sniff .500. But they got that new ballpark!
AL East
Yankees-I tried to not pick the Yankees. I really did. They certainly aren't a lock. This team has a lot of age on it. Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Robin Ventura...they can't produce forever, can they? Even Derek Jeter is 29, and now sidelined by a dislocated shoulder. For all its massive payroll, this team doesn't have great bullpen depth or bench depth. Missing Jeter will hurt them, as will any longterm loss of Rivera. The bullpen has been completely revamped, which means that Torre may be tempted to go a bit longer with starters who aren't at the point in their careers where they can be stretched out as much. I see trouble here. So why did I pick them? So much starting pitching, I guess.
Red Sox-I don't think the bullpen by committee deal is going to work all that well for them, because they don't have the right arms to do it with. But other than that, if Pedro Martinez can be Pedro, and Derek Lowe isn't hurt too much by having Todd Walker in the field behind him instead of Rey Sanchez, this team should absolutely compete. Nomar Garciaparra is one of my favorite players in any sport, Manny Ramirez can flat-out hit, and Johnny Damon should be on base for them. The Red Sox are the team to watch this year because of what's happening in their ownership group and front office. John Henry understands the quantitative study of baseball trends that places like Baseball Prospectus and Bill James have popularized, so much so that he hired James as a consultant. Then he went out and hired a 28 year-old GM who understood the principles and was willing to put them into play. The success or failure of this team could change the future of baseball. I really believe that. That's cause enough for me to root for them. But they absolutely must avoid an injury to Pedro or Lowe, and they have to get quality work out of that bullpen.
Blue Jays-This team is getting close. They have a smart GM, JP Riccardi, who is a Beane disciple. They have good young talent in Eric Hinske, Vernon Wells and Roy Halladay, and they have other great offensive weapons in Carlos Delgado and Shannon Stewart. The question is, how good will the rotation be behind Halladay, and how good will the bullpen be? With a little more pitching, this team will make noise in an improving AL East.
Devil Rays-This team has some young talent in Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli. I expect them to be in over their heads this season, but Sweet Lou will guide them to 70 wins. I'm not sure how, with their pitching. Really, this prediction doesn't make any sense at all.
Orioles-The O's are improving, but they haven't quite committed to a full rebuild yet, and they don't have a whole lot of young talent in their pipeline. But they have the best park in the league.
Whoo. We'll have to do the NL another time. Like next year.
