Saddam's Bluff?
While reading the always-interesting Talking Points Memo, I stumbled across this story from the Associated Press, which cites a former top aide to Saddam as saying that although Iraq's WMD were in fact destroyed in the mid-90's, Saddam maintained appearances that Iraq might still have WMD for deterrence purposes.
Sounds plausible to me, and apparently it does to people at the Pentagon and State, too. It would explain why nothing has been found, but it would also explain why Iraq would choose not to let inspectors in, even though he had nothing to hide.
In fact, in Saddam's mind, he may have had everything to hide, which was the fact that Saddam wasn't anywhere near the military power that some in the West thought he was.
The AP article goes on to explain that Saddam's plan backfired because he was "totally ignorant" of how Western Democracy works, and also greatly underestimated the impact of 9/11 on U.S. foreign policy. This is also consistent with what many have said about Saddam, most notably Kenneth Pollack, that he was more or less a bumbling, self-delusional megalomaniac who surrounded himself with yes-men, and could chalk up his longevity as much to luck as anything else.
It's being touted as a giant miscalculation, if the theory is true, and I suppose in retrospect I agree. The critical breaking point from his strategy would have been to let the inspectors into the country. Sure, it would have made Iraq look weaker, but it would have undercut the impetus for the U.S. justification for attack, at least at the moment.
Saddam chose the appearance of strength over appeasement. And he chose wrong.
12:39:08 PM 
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