Are Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks for real? The Rams find out on Sunday.
The Seer Sees Week 3 of the NFL
Ah, Week 3. The first week of the byes, the first time several teams hit the road. Week 3 is when we start to build a bit of a history and context for each team, and when it starts to undeniably feel like football season.
The Seer ended up at an unremarkable 8-8 record last week, which means that if I were actually laying down money on these games I would have come out behind because of the vig or rake or whatever they call the book's fee for placing the bet. Which is why I targeted a 58% success rate this year, because that would represent a minimal profit.
But really, let's say I'm laying $20 on each game, something I would be reluctant to do on even one game, but let's just say that I'm doing that. There are 256 games in an NFL season. That's $5120 in the course of a year. That's a lot of money to put at risk to win, what, around $300 bucks if I bet every game at $20 and roll with 58%, which would be highly unlikely.
Of course, it's not likely that I would suck along at anything less than 40%, either, which means that the most I could likely lose is around $500 ss long as I wasn't making stupid bets, and the most likely scenario given my average prognostication talents is that I would be somewhere between up and down $100.
So, clearly, I wouldn't be laying money down for the sake of the money. It would have to be just for the thrill of having some action on the games. A close friend of Pipeline does exactly that for most all sports, not for the money, but for the action. For him, it makes the games more meaningful. I can certainly see why it would be more meaningful in a given game, but if you're playing all the games (and I would have to to minimize risk), I guess the appeal would be gone for me. Besides, if I'm more or less maintaining a sports blog throughout the year, and belong to multiple baseball, basketball and football fantasy leagues, I probably don't need to do much to make things more "meaningful".
And yet here we are, making picks for Week 3...
Week 3
Jets @ Patriots, Patriots by 6.5
Big line. The Patriots bounced back big-time against a Moribund and Stunned (which should have been Pavement's follow-up to Slanted and Enchanted) Eagles team. The Jets, meanwhile, can't move the ball, and they haven't been able to use Curtis Martin much. The Seer doesn't think the Jets will threaten the Patriots, but that big line scares us a bit.
The Seer Sees: Patriots beat the spread
Steelers @ Bengals, Steelers by 6
Another big line, but it's the Bengals, right? Well, the Bengals played the Raiders tough on the road, and they might be starting to believe that they can really improve. The Steelers also always have trouble in Cincy. And yet, despite getting smacked in KC last week, the Seer was impressed with the Steelers on offense and defense. The Bengals don't have Priest Holmes, and they don't have a special teams wizard like Dante Hall. The Seer likes the Bengals, but...
The Seer Sees: Steelers cover
Jaguars @ Colts, Colts by 7.5
Quite a statement game by the Colts last week, but their M.O. is all about letting down, isn't it? The Jags aren't a good team. The Seer has picked them twice against the spread, but you know the old saying: Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, fuck you! Of course, the Colts have fooled the Seer twice as well. Can't we get at least a little moral clarity with our parity?
The Seer Sees: Colts cover
Vikings @ Lions, Vikings by 3.5
Tough line. The Vikings are healthy, though, and should improve if Culpepper can hang onto the ball. BIG if. Still, their confidence is very high. The Lions are improved, but they can't stop the run, which puts them in a real tough position: dedicate an extra defender to Randy Moss, as the Bears did, or keep that defender home to help against the run? Either way, they lose.
The Seer Sees: Vikings cover
Saints @ Titans, Titans by 5
Great matchup. The Seer admits that Tennessee's egg last week in Indy shattered their confidence in the boys from Nashville. And the Saints, who knows? McNair's already banged up. That spread is just too big.
The Seer Sees: Saints beat the spread
Buccaneers @ Falcons, Bucs by 3.5
Are you kidding? After the Bucs loss on Sunday? The Falcons couldn't be catching Tampa at a worse time. Somebody's gonna pay. Somebody named the Falcons.
The Seer Sees: Buccaneers cover
Chiefs @ Texans, Chiefs by 8
This is trouble. The danger here is that the Chiefs will establish a large lead, and then pull Priest Holmes and just eat up the clock with Larry Johnson, making the score closer than the game really was. But bear in mind that Houston is a second-year team, and very new teams lack depth, and depth is critical in the special teams game. Which means that Dante Hall, in a Texas homecoming, could have a HUGE day. That might be worth 8 points all by itself.
The Seer Sees: Chiefs cover
Giants @ Redskins, Redskins by 2
Tough, tough game. The Giants were flat-out embarrassed Monday night. The Skins were way down early to Atlanta, and the Skins took advantage of a banged-up Falcons secondary to come back. No such luck against the Gents. The Seer can't see Spurrier and crew jumping out 3-0, and the Giants are going to be desperate. It's early, but coach Jim Fassell is putting all of his chips in.
The Seer Sees: Giants beat the spread
Packers @ Cardinals, Packers by 8
If the Cardinals get down early, they'll fold. Anquan Boldin has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona, and the Packer secondary hasn't been great, but come on. This spread could be 12 and we'd still call it the same way...
The Seer Sees: Packers cover
Rams @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 3
The Seer thinks this is the game of the afternoon. The Rams are getting better, and now they have their best QB in the lineup. The Seahawks are still a mystery, though the Saints win was certainly quality. A win here merits serious attention. But the Seer thinks the Rams make this close.
The Seer Sees: Rams beat the spread
Ravens @ Chargers, pick 'em
The Chargers have disappointed so far, but they have played Denver and KC, two decent teams. The Ravens lost big to the Steelers and then had a Jamal Lewis Prediction Party against the Browns, who seem to not be good at all. San Diego got torched by Clinton Portis last week, so Jamal Lewis could have another big day.
The Seer Sees: Ravens
Browns @ 49ers, 49ers by 7
Are the Browns that bad? Yeah, we guess they probably are. The 49ers made last week's Rams game very close, and should have tied it up. No mistakes this time around.
The Seer Sees: 49ers cover
Bills @ Miami, Miami by 3
No respect! That's the battlecry in the Bills lockerroom this week upon seeing this line. Ricky Williams may find the up-the-middle running a bit tougher against Brewer/Patriot/Bill Sam Adams and co. Drew Bledsoe traditionally has had success against Miami's DB's, and Sam Madison and Patrick Surtain seem to have slipped a bit this year. No respect!
The Seer Sees: Bills cover
Raiders @ Broncos, Broncos by 5
This is the big Monday night game, and it's a good one. The Raiders just look lifeless and old to me, but they'll be up for this game. The Seer thinks the Broncos are playing with fire with Jake (the Fake) Plummer, but Clinton Portis is a chest-bruised running machine. Still, the Broncos haven't really played a good team yet, and the Raiders, even if a bit older and slower, are still a good team. Monday Night will also keep this game closer than the spread.
The Seer Sees: Raiders beat the spread
Well, there you have it. Have a safe and fun weekend.
3:22:26 PM 
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