
Will the real Donovan McNabb please step up?
The Seer Sees: Week 4 of the NFL
This is a trouble week, the kind of week that should only see hardcore gamblers and lunatics laying down wagers on more than a couple games. Why? Injuries and road favorites. Injuries come in three flavors in the NFL. Flavor One is when you know a guy is out, and you know enough about his backup to know whether he is good or bad. You can deal with a Flavor One injury, because what you need as a wagerer is certainty, or at least a close approximation of the illusion of certainty.
Flavor Two injuries are where you know a guy is going to be out, but you don't know a damn thing about how his replacement is going to play, or how the rest of the injured player's team is going to adjust their scheme. There's uncertainty there. Uncertainty bad.
Flavor Three injuries are the worst, though. We'll call it the Edgerrin James Flavor this week, because James is, as of today, 50-50 this weekend. What the Hell? Now you don't know whether to evaluate the Colts with or without James, and you don't know if Dominick Rhodes, his backup, is going to play, either. Of course, it's no coincidence that the Saints don't know, either. The Seer only has to pick the games; the Saints have to come up with a gameplan without knowning who they'll play against.
The list of injuries this week is a long one, but that's just par for the course as the NFL wears on. Still, in a week where Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Marshall Faulk, Edge James, the entire Patriots defense, David Boston and a few others are likely to be reduced or removed from game action this week, it makes for a tougher slate to pick against.
And then there are the road favorites. More or less, line dogma says that being the home team is worth 3 points. So if you have two teams that are a pick 'em at a neutral site, the team that is home is going to be a 3 point favorite. But the reality is, winning on the road ain't easy in the NFL, and covering spreads sometimes just doesn't happen the way it should. You know more or less that at least two road favorites aren't going to cover. Last week, for example...Well, now that I look at it, only one road favorite failed to cover last week, and that was the Packers. God, that means all the road favorites are due to tank this week!
Well, the reality is that I haven't come up with a hard and fast rule on road favorites, and I'm not so into this that I'm going to go out and do research beyond what my own picks and head and gut tell me, because I fear that would be crossing a line of enthusiasm and perceived knowlege that might actually lead me to want to try to persuade Jane to let me lay money down on these games, and that's no good for anybody at all.
At least until I start hitting my 58% goal. Then she'll be begging me to put the money down.
And now that I look at the lines, I notice that there aren't even that many road favorites this week. I got that notion from a panicked Packers fan who was talking incoherently to me on the phone at 2:00 AM about the heat in Arizona during the Cardinals game, and then something about road games and the Lambeau Leap and bratwursts being better than cheddarwursts, and I don't even remember all of what this poor shellshocked chap had to say. It turns out he was wrong, dead wrong, about the number of scary road favorites this week, though he turned out to be a sage voice of reason on the shortcomings of the cheddarwurst.
Let's jump right in, shall we?
Week 4
Patriots @ Redskins, Redskins by 1.5
The Patriots are a troubling lot. Their Week 1 massacre at the hands of the Bills is still working to keep their lines skewed, and now they have lost Roosevelt Colvin and run-stopping DT Ted (State of) Washington, as well as a couple of key LB's. Injuries are really hurting that D. But Bill Belichick is a master of preparation, and you have to think that he might have some tricks up his sleeve for Rookie QB Patrick R. The Skins are due for a slight stop to their momentum.
The Seer Sees: Patriots beat the spread
Chiefs @ Ravens, Chiefs by 3
Well, this is a scary road favorite. The only decent offensive team the Ravens have played is the Steelers, and the Chiefs are a far sight better than that team, as they proved in Week 2. Priest Holmes is out to show the Ravens that they may have made a mistake in not keeping him around, when they chose to go with Jamal Lewis instead. Two great backs, but only one great offense. The Seer is very wary of this game, but one of these teams seems to be a lot better than the other...
The Seer Sees: Chiefs cover
Eagles @ Bills, Bills by 3
I think this is the critical game of the week. It's a tough one to pick. McNabb and co. have looked clueless in their first two weeks, and I have to think the two weeks off may have been as much of a detriment as a benefit. Still, McNabb is better than he has shown, and the Seer expects Philly to come out with some simple formations to get his confidence back. The Bills were just brutalized by Ricky Williams last Sunday night, but the Eagles don't have that kind of RB. The Eagles are missing some key people in the secondary, though, and Bledsoe and co. are itching to get back on the field after sitting on the sidelines most of last week.
The Seer Sees: Bills cover
Titans @ Steelers, Steelers by 3
Another tough one. These are always great games. The Titans came up big against the Saints last week, but laid an egg against Indy the week before. Tough to know which team will show up. Still, the Seer expects this to be a very close game, Closer than 3, though?
The Seer Sees: Titans beat the spread
Bengals @ Browns, Browns by 5.5
In a week of tough picks, this one looks like a breather. The Bengals are an improving lot, and the Seer can only guess that people are heartened by the Browns' last drive against the 49ers last week, and figure that will carry over. The Browns should be better than they are, but the Bengals are getting better. 5.5 seems big against a Browns team that has struggled to put up points all season long.
The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread
49ers @ Vikings, off the board
This game isn't even on the board, because of all the injuries. Since the Seer is a slave to the board, we won't pick this game, either. Gut feeling? The Seer doesn't think the Vikings go 4-0.
Falcons @ Panthers, Panthers by 6
This just in: The Panthers are for real. They have a bad-ass defensive line and a workhorse RB in Stephen Davis, and a smart defensive-minded coach in John Fox. Fox's offense is a bit too vanilla for my tastes, but when you have mediocre QB's and a stud RB, that's probably smart. The Falcons are sinking fast, with only a victory over green Dallas to crow about. The Redskins loss at home, after being up 17-0, was a killer. QB Doug Johnson is immobile, and the Panthers' D may further immobilize him.
The Seer Sees: Panthers cover
Cardinals @ Rams, Rams by 10.5
Hmm. OK. So the Cardinals did win a game last week. Maybe they aren't quite as bad as everyone thought. The Rams? Well, Marshall Faulk is gone, and there is talk that they might go conservative this week and run the ball. Who knows? It's a big spread. Sometimes, when a team finally breaks through and wins a game, they gain a sense of purpose that can fuel overall improvement. Then again, sometimes teams only win one game a year. The Rams haven't shown the Seer enough to think that a 10.5 point spread is automatic, and Jeff Blake is getting major yards through the air.
The Seer Sees: Cardinals beat the spread
Jaguars @ Texans, Jaguars by 3
How bad are the Jags, when they are only favored by 3 against the Texans? Of course, one of these teams is winless, and it ain't the Texans. The Houston crowd will be loud, though, and the Seer has a hunch this will be a close game.
The Seer Sees: Texans beat the spread
Chargers @ Raiders, Raiders by 6.5
The Chargers have been an abomination this season, and now they have injury problems on the O-line, and a possible team-ordered suspension against the over-inflated David Boston. The Raiders, on the other hand, look soooo old. The passing game isn't working like it used to, as the receivers can't get seperation, and the defenses have adjusted to the short passing attack. There is talk from Raider camp that they might revamp the offense and go with more of a pounding, running attack. We'll see. I think the Raiders bounce back big-time this week, as they rally behind returned Super Bowl AWOL psychotic freak Barrett Robbins. Meanwhile, LaDainian Tomlinson is the new Corey Dillon in the NFL, a waste of a premier running back on a terrible team.
The Seer Sees: Raiders cover
Cowboys @ Jets, Jets by 3
ESPN's John Clayton, the Seer's favorite NFL reporter because he's such a poindexter that we imagine him getting stuffed into lockers all across the league, had a great line about this game, saying that Cowboys coach Bill Parcells might win more games in the Meadowlands this year than the Jets do. The Seer can't help but feel for the Jets, who have fallen from the glory days of early NFL upset darlings and 80's era dance bad to having their wagon so completely abandoned after Chad Pennington's injury. "But what about this game?", you say with $500 big ones burning a hole in the breast pocket of your smoking jacket. The Cowboys aren't pretty. But they are getting better. Parcells wins again.
The Seer Sees: Cowboys beat the spread
Lions @ Broncos, Broncos by 13
Geez, that's a big spread. The Seer has seen the Lions play. The Seer has seen the Broncos play.
The Seer Sees: Broncos cover
Colts @ Saints, Colts by 1.5
Ah, now this is the scary road favorite. Scary because of Edge James and Dominick Rhodes' playing statuses. Scary because the Saints are an enigma, but seem to be a slightly better enigma at home. If the Saints would just run the ball with Deuce McAllister, things will be just fine. Can you do that for the Seer?
The Seer Sees: Saints beat the spread
Monday Night
Packers @ Bears, Packers by 4
Yeah, like a new $500 million, uglified Soldier Field can come down and play the offensive line for the Bears. Loss to the Cardinals or not, this line is a joke. It's Brett Favre, it's Monday Night, and it's against the Bears. Easy, easy money. The Seer is emptying his bank account as this goes to press.
The Seer Sees: Packers cover
There you have it. The Seer sees this week with the clarity of a mariner caught off the Newfoundland coast in the midst of a dense and persistent fog. This is a Tough Week. Only the Packers and Panthers picks seem trustworthy. Some weeks you make your breaks. Some weeks you just go broke. The Seer has a bad feeling about this one.
12:43:38 PM
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