Wednesday, February 18, 2004


Lies, Damned Job Creation Lies, And Statisticians

Now I've heard everything.  Facing increasing pressure regarding the rosy forecast of the White House Council of Economic Advisers that 2.6 million jobs would be created by the end of this year, the President has said that the number was the work of "numbers-crunchers", and that his focus is on reality.

I can't do the comedy of this short article justice.  You really need to read it yourself. 

 

 


3:50:04 PM    Say what?[]

Shut Up About The Yankees, Already

This weekend, the Yankees dealt a 28 year-old free swinger to the Rangers for Alex Rodriguez, the best player in baseball.  Much gnashing of teeth has ensued.

Me?  I personally don't care anymore.  I want the Yankees to be as good as they can be.  If they win, it's proof of the folly of the leadership of baseball.  If they lose, everybody's in heaven.  It doesn't impact my interest in the Twins, except on the off chance they happen to meet up again in the post-season.  But even then, the logic above applies.

I'll tell you this, though.  I want all the Red Sox fans boo-hooing this deal to shut their yaps.  You don't get to cry about the Big Bad Monster when you have a $120 million payroll, and you had the first shot at A-Rod but blew it because you tried to play it cheap.  Sorry.  The Yanks are the Yanks for a reason, and you're the Red Sox for a reason.  Now shut up and play ball.

Besides, this deal doesn't really make the Yankees all that much better.  It makes them better, but not 10 games better.  The starting staff has some issues, they'll put together another crappy bench, and they're moving the wrong guy to third base.  Leave it to the Yankees to spend $200 mil and forget to plug the small holes.

As for the Texas Rangers' part of the deal, they continue to be idiots.  How do you deal the best player in the game, who is still in his prime, and not address your pitching staff, which is issue Number One (and Two, and Three) for your team?  Easy, if you're Ranger GM John Hart.  Hell, you've made a career out of those kinds of moves.

My friend Russ called to chat baseball yesterday.  I chided him for jumping the gun on baseball, that the NBA season was at a fever pitch.  He said he didn't like the NBA as much these days, something about how all the money had ruined it for him.  Then he proceeded to tell me that he wouldn't follow baseball if not for the fact that he stood to win money in his fantasy league.  Then he told me he's really a college sports guy.  Like that's not all about the money.  But we all pick our poison and lower the veil of delusion when it suits us best, so I won't begrudge his allegiances.

Russ wanted to know some good fantasy baseball sites, and I'm happy to oblige. 

For general reading tinged with holier-than-thou piousness, Baseball Prospectus is always good.  But now you have to pay a premium, so I rarely go there.  But the freebies are usually worth reading.

You also have to pay a premium at Baseball America, but there's enough free stuff to make it worthwhile. 

But I believe what Russ is really after are projections, ways to determine the relative values of players for his draft.  There are a variety of ways to do this, but my experience tells me that less is more.  You could put together a spreadsheet of projected dollar value earnings with 10 difference sources and average them out, but that's not going to tell you any more than doing two or three sources, if you get the right sources.

I typically will include Baseball Weekly's draft projections from John Hunt, then add the dollar values from his Leviathan draft after it happens, and also include a third source, perhaps something like Fantasy Sports Central's projections.  I then average all the dollar totals and rank based on that.  Remember, the dollar values are relative and you should disregard them.  Use this measure only as a source of comparison and ranking preference.

Also, if you do this on a spreadsheet, remember to take the spreadsheet with you to the draft.  And, above all else, make sure you read this column by Bill Simmons before you draft.

That's the totality of my advice.  Happy drafting.


3:20:50 PM    Say what?[]

Get Buster!

We have a 20 pound gray cat named Buster.  He's a great cat, but he does a lot of things that are very annoying.  One of them is that if he thinks it's time for you to feed him (and 20 pound cats always think it's time for you to feed them), he will try to cause Trouble.  He might get up on a shelf and start knocking things down, for example. 

His latest thing is to go behind the TV and start chewing on the cords.  You would think that would be dangerous, but he's no worse for wear so far.  I keep meaning to rub cayenne pepper on the cords, but I haven't gotten around to it yet.

Usually what I do is just scream at Buster.  I'll yell, "Buster, NO!" 

This sends my dog Maxine into a frenzy.  She can be upstairs in our bedroom, and I can be all the way down in the basement, and if she hears Buster getting into trouble she'll make a headlong sprint down two flights of stairs so she can hassle Buster.  She'll chase him around and bark at him and try to lay down on him.  The highlight of her day is when Buster gets in trouble. 

Sometimes, she even likes to tattle on Buster.  If she sees Buster go near the TV, she'll start barking at him.  Then she'll come to me and pull a Lassie, barking at me while taking a step or two toward the TV.  I don't need a bow-lingual to know that she's saying, "Hurry, Doug.  Buster's getting into trouble.  Let's go get him!"

Maxine's zeal to punish Buster can also be her downfall.  During the cold winter months, I let her out in the yard to do her business without actually going in the yard myself.  Sometimes she takes advantage of her freedom, and will spend the time on the hill behind our house.  When I open the door to call her in, I never really know what response I'll get.

Sometimes I can just yell "Maxine!", and she runs to the door.  Other times, I might have to yell the word "treat".  Maybe that works, but lately it doesn't so much.

Many times, I have the infuriating experience of standing at my back door and yelling, only to see my dog turn and look down from on high.  She makes no effort to move.  She just stares at me.  It galls me every time.

Then, yesterday, after seeing her stare at me and continue casually grazing on the hill, I turned my head back into the house and yelled, "BUSTER, NO!"

I've never seen her run so fast to get inside. 

Poor Buster.

 


10:57:46 AM    Say what?[]

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