Don’t Fear the Seer
Another NFL season is upon us, and spending Week 1 as an interested observer the Seer is now ready to apply his talents of vision and prognostication to Week 2. Lest anyone doubt those talents, the Seer refers readers to last season’s exploits, where a 96-78 record (55.2%) was fashioned against the spread. That’s good, but as Sly Stone might say, this year the Seer wants to take you higher.
The goal this season is 60%. Mind you, that’s picking all games against the spread, not just the low-hanging fruit. Not that the Seer has shown an ability to pick the “sure things”, of course. But this year, that will change. The Seer will still pick all the games, but we will also identify three “Money Picks” each week. These would be the games the Seer would be putting money on if we were actually betting.
A few technical notes before we get to the picks. I’ll be getting my lines from this site, and of the lines they list I will usually go with the Stardust line. I choose the Stardust because it’s an old-school Vegas casino that conjures images of Lewis and Martin as busboys, or Sinatra telling some bozos it’s going to be ring-a-ding for them if they don’t go get him some rigatoni.
Also, since this column won’t be posted until late Friday night, it most likely won’t be read by many of you until Monday, after these games have happened. Thus, it is very possible that some readers will have finished reading their morning coverage of the NFL, only to find that the Seer predicted the exact outcome some 36 hours earlier. This is likely to be unsettling for some as it will bring my predictive powers into sharper relief, but do not be afraid. I assure you my powers are largely only for benevolent motives. Also, do not ask the Seer to predict events in your own life. While I am able to “See” many of the things you wish you knew, I cannot and will not share them with you at this time. To do so would violate certain union rules, and I’ve probably said too much already about the matter, so on with the picks!
Denver @ Jacksonville, Denver by 3
Jacksonville pulled out an improbable last-second win in Buffalo, which was notable because Byron Manwich didn’t have to be carried down the field due to a broken ankle. But the Jags’ offense didn’t do much at all the entire game, and who really knows how good Buffalo is? Of course, that goes for Denver too, who barely beat a Chiefs team that I think is due for a fall this season. If I were a Bronco fan, I’d be scared to death of Jake Plummer because he can make boneheaded plays like nobody’s business, and he can also get himself hurt doing it. Bottom line, I think Denver has more playmakers in Quentin Griffin and Champ Bailey.
The Seer Sees: Denver covers
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore, Baltimore by 4
Show of hands: Does anybody care about either of these teams? That’s what I thought. Baltimore is so desperate for offensive spark that they are working out Deion Sanders at WR. Too bad that doesn’t change the fact that Kyle Boller is still the QB. You have to be able to do more than run in this league, but there is no evidence the Ravens can do that. Pittsburgh is no juggernaut, but they have big receivers, a nice tandem at RB, and a veteran QB who shouldn’t make too many mistakes. If the defense doesn’t score for Baltimore, I’m not sure they can even score four points, much less win by four.
The Seer Sees: Pittsburgh beats the spread
Houston @ Detroit, Detroit by 3
Nope. Sorry. The Seer is not a believer that the roar has been restored in Detroit. Roy Williams is the real deal at WR, but Charles Rogers going down again will hurt and Joey Harrington is still the QB. If I’m not mistaken, this is a Lions team that barely beat a bad Bears team on the strength of a fluke special teams play, and the Bears still had a chance to win that game at the end. Houston’s line is suppressed by an admittedly poor loss at home to the Chargers, but the Chargers do have one of the best backs in football in LaDainian Tomlinson, and you better believe the Lions won’t have anybody close to that in their backfield.
The Seer Sees: Houston beats the spread
Indianapolis @ Tennessee, Tennessee by 1.5
Is there a bigger putz in football than Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagtoff? Two years after getting drunk, going on TV and calling out Peyton Manning as being a loser (which I don’t necessarily agree with, but you don’t ever, ever do when you’re a kicker or anybody else), Vanderjagtoff had a chance to beat the archrival Patriots Monday night with a 48 yard field goal. But just before lining up for the kick, he turned to the Patriots bench and rubbed his fingers together in the “money” sign, to apparently say that he is a money kicker who doesn’t miss. Of course, he missed, and that was the game. Afterwards, despite three consecutive HUGE losses to the Pats, he had the audacity to suggest that the Pats are “obviously not a better team” than the Colts. On the other side of the ball, Steve McNair is a badass. So why am I picking the Colts? The Seer doesn’t always understand what he sees, but he sees it all the same.
The Seer Sees: Colts beat the spread
Chicago @ Green Bay, Green Bay by 9
Home opener for the Pack, with huge historical rivals the Bears coming in. I bet it’s going to be one hell of a beautiful day in Lambeau, but nine is a big spread, and I look for Bears QB Rex Grossman to bounce back from a disappointing end to the Lions game. The Packers are much better than the Bears, but they are coming off a short week and a big opener on Monday night.
The Seer Sees: Bears beat the spread
Washington @ New York Giants, Washington by 3
The Giants are moribund. No other word for them, and as the QB controversy evolves into The Struggle of Eli Manning, this season will be lost quickly.
The Seer Sees: Washington covers the spread
San Francisco @ New Orleans, New Orleans by 7
Did the Seer miss something? These aren’t exactly the Bill Walsh-era Niners, but what have the Saints done to warrant this large spread? They’ve spent their week worrying about a hurricane and their stadium has been filled with French Quarter regulars trying to avoid a flood. Of course, the Niners are playing backup QB Ken Dorsey and are woefully short of playmakers on offense. A dreadful game.
The Seer Sees: Saints cover
St. Louis @ Atlanta, Atlanta by 1.5
This should be a high-scoring game. I don’t like the way the Falcons’ secondary matches up against a healthy Rams offense, and I’m sure the Falcons aren’t all that crazy about it, either. Atlanta’s short passing game offense seems like the worst possible situation for Michael Vick, sort of like having Michael Jordan run the Four Corners.
The Seer Sees: Rams beat the spread
Carolina @ Kansas City, Kansas City by 6.5
The Chiefs obviously have a lot of problems on defense, and I think they’ll eventually struggle on offense as well. Carolina’s front four could certainly have a bounce back game and bottle up Priest Holmes, but I still think the Chiefs are too strong for this Panthers team, especially in the home opener and with the Panthers coming off a tough loss and a short week. (Note: This line moved from 6 to 6.5 in the time I was writing this. The betting public doesn’t like the Panthers, it seems…)
The Seer Sees: Chiefs cover the spread
Seattle @ Tampa Bay, Seattle by 2.5
Does Shaun Alexander play or not? That’s pretty much the million-dollar question. That is, if you’re stupid enough to bet a million dollars on this game. Tampa Bay is slow and old and a shell of their formerly great selves. Seattle should win this game either way if they are truly as good as their hype. I don’t think they are, but they’re good enough to beat a Bucs team on the way down.
The Seer Sees: Seattle covers
Cleveland @ Dallas, Dallas by 4
Despite Dallas getting hammered by the Vikings, I thought Vinny Testaverde looked pretty decent. He threw some nice deep balls to Antonio Bryant, and Keyshawn Johnson gives them a guy they know will go get the ball in traffic. The running game left much to be desired, as did the defensive secondary, but the Browns won’t exploit that the way the Vikings did. This spread feels like it should be lower, but I like Bill Parcells chances of getting his team to bounce back strong.
The Seer Sees: Cowboys cover
New England @ Arizona, New England by 8
This game is a trap, plain and simple. The Cardinals are coming off a game where they played St. Louis tough on the road, and the Cardinals had a surprisingly good record at home last season. This game could get out of hand, but I like the Cards’ chances to stay close at home.
The Seer Sees: Cardinals beat the spread
Buffalo @ Oakland, Oakland by 3.5
Another game the country is collectively holding its breath to see. I’ll summarize my thoughts thusly:
The Seer Sees: Raiders cover
New York Jets @ San Diego, New York by 3
Can the Jets win on the road? (Yes. In theory.) Is Drew Brees for real? (Yes, in the sense that he does exist. No, in the sense that he’s not as good as the Texans made him look.) Is the code on the bottom of my Coke bottle cap a winner? (I can’t tell.) What are the chances that I’ll ever go to the internet to find out? (Slim.) Is it true that John Kerry wants to confiscate all of our guns? (Yes, if you believe the letter my wife received from the NRA.) Is it true that Laura Bush was the “go-to girl” for dime bags during her college days at SMU? (Yes, if you believe Kitty Kelly.) Would I buy a dime bag from Laura Bush? (Yes, but only if I could share it with her daughters.) Is it true that Johnny Ramone of the Ramones was an unabashed fan of Ronald Reagan? (Yes.) Is it true that among the friends gathered at Ramone’s bedside for his death were Eddie Vedder, Rob Zombie, Lorne Green, Talia Shire and Morganna? (Partially; Lorne Green and Morganna couldn’t make it. But it was at that bedside vigil that Talia Shire turned to Richard Hell and said: “Chad Pennington is the man. Inform the Seer.”)
The Seer Sees: Jets cover
Miami @ Cincinnati, Cincinnati by 4.5
The Dolphins finally pull the plug on Jay Fiedler and insert A.J. Touchy Feeley. It won’t matter a damn bit. The Bengals are riding high, they have their QB in place and a coach the team and the league respects. The Seer should also mention that when he was 12 he thought the Bengals’ uniforms were the absolute pinnacle of football fashion, and could not possibly be improved upon. Now, over 20 years later, the Seer isn’t sure what to think. The stripes seem so gaudy, but when you’re called the Bengals what the hell do you do but go with a black, orange and white scheme with the tiger stripes? Paul Brown made this bed for the city of Cincinnati way back when, and it’s too late to turn back now.
The Seer Sees: Bengals cover
Minnesota @ Philadelphia, Philadelphia by 3
Badass game. The Seer is wary of the Vikings due to past experiences, but this is a better Vikings team than past versions. The Eagles have a revamped secondary that figures to be sorely tested by one Randy Moss. Terrell Owens will surely break out some routine if he scores a TD. I predict some sort of self-flagellation. This will be a fun game to watch.
The Seer Sees: Vikings beat the spread
4:27:36 PM 
|
