Day of Change
A lot is going to change on November 2. It doesn't really matter who wins. Heck, it doesn't even matter that we won't know who the winner is on November 2. (Let's have a quick pool for when people think the election results will be certified official. I say December 7, 2004.)
Think about all the things that will change on November 2.
- There will be a huge schism in the Republican Party, regardless of the winner. That schism will become a giant and public rift as old-line Republicans like Spector and McCain try to reclaim the party from the fundamentalist-courting folks like Santorum and the goons like DeLay. Once fiscal conservatism and respect for foreign policy and diplomacy take over again in the GOP, the partisan divide in this country will significantly decline.
- Iraqi elections will be just a short two months away. Think Iraq is fun now, wait till that election gets closer. I don't know why the violence would abate when the whole point is to end the occupation. If Kerry's in, it's a new U.S. regime to try to convince. If Bush wins, he won't have the pressure of the election forcing him to keep troops there to avoid the appearance of all-out retreat. My best guess is a Kerry win brings an increase in troops in Iraq, and possibly the same with Bush. What's the alternative?
- The Supreme Court's makeup and character could change in the immediate aftermath of the election. Justices with health concerns or retirement plans won't want to wait long before moving on.
- Of course, the makeup and character of the Supreme Court will in large part be decided more by the makeup and character of the Senate, and that very well could change after November 2. I think the chances of a tectonic shift in the House are less, but a big Kerry turnout could bring us to a reverse of the '94 election that left Jane and I crying in our beer at the old Ace Box bar in Minneapolis.
- Think about the public mood immediately after the upcoming election. No matter what happens, it's going to be a difficult and contentious time in our history. If it's a close race, there will be election challenges abound. We know this because there are already thousands of lawyers from both parties and impartial organizations observing the voting all around the country. (Or maybe I'm wrong about the ability of thousands of lawyers to get together in one place and not end up in court.) On the other hand, what if it's a landslide, as many of my friends increasingly suggest will happen? You think Bush people won't howl if their guy had the benefit of good poll numbers and election fraud operations in South Dakota, Ohio, Nevada and Oregon (you can look it up), and still lost? Oh, they'll howl. And a Bush landslide sure isn't going to make people who voted for Kerry happy at all. Not that there's any reason to suspect any kind of malfeasance in vote counting, registration, voter intimidation, etc on the part of the GOP, of course.
Now, think about some of these questions.
What happens to all the neocons if Bush loses? Do they just go back to places like the National Enterprise Institute? How will they continue to pursue their agenda for the next four years?
Where does Karl Rove go after November 2? Since Bush or Cheney won't be running in 2008, would Rove even be around the White House?
If Kerry wins, how will the Vast Rightwing Conspiracy try to bring him down? Another Lewinsky doesn't seem to fit his image. Illegal investments? Eyewitness accounts of Kerry atrocities in Vietnam? You know they have to fill those airwaves up with something.
If Bush wins, what do the next four years hold? Remember, this is an Administration that has been dumbfoundingly brazen about skirting the truth and world opinion, even as they knew they had to win an election. What happens when they know Bush is done in 2008 and the next President isn't going to come from his cabinet? One part of me fears the neocon worldview running amok, but I could also see Bush giving the finger to the evangelicals, especially if Rove isn't around to guide policy and strategic decisions.
Finally, if Bush wins and Colin Powell departs, who runs State? Wolfowitz? And what does a more ideologically pliant State Department mean for a group that has already shown itself to be suffering from GroupThink?
November 2, 2004 is going to be an important day, but anybody growing weary of this election and all the gravitas associated with it better brace themselves. November 2 marks the beginning of our difficult road, not the end of it.
And that's true no matter who wins, no matter when they win.
8:24:32 PM 
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