Life Is Just A Fantasy: 2005/2006 Fantasy Basketball Version
I've played in the same fantasy baseball league, the LSSBL, for over 10 years now. I've played in the same fantasy basketball league for about 6 or 7. It's more or less the same people in each league over the years, and both are keeper leagues. Fantasy leagues like that have a certain history and level of reality to them because of all the continuity. Your teams evolve over time; but the roster you have today may have roots in transactions you made five years ago or more. And believe me, fantasy owners remember things that happened five years ago or more, unless they were in a down period where they simply tried to block everything out.
Whenever I claim fantasy sports are a sort of reality unto themselves, my wife Jane scoffs. She likes to say things like, "You know, you're not really the coach of a team." She does that when I play video games, too, always reminding me that I didn't actually just throw a 102 mph fastball by a 5-foot tall, 300 lb guy I created named Chunky Butt Funky.
In one sense, though, she has a point. If it's just me and the PlayStation enjoying my domination of the ATV freestyle circuit, it's still a reality, but it's not a reality that's worth anything to anybody else, and probably has limited value for me as well. But when you have 10 or 15 people in a league for 10 years, having conversations, exchanging emails, having parties, having drafts, going to games and having snowball fights with, well, that's reality. Oh, and it was so real when I brought home a fat three digits for winning the baseball league last year. Unfortunately, it will also be real when news of this year's three-figure fees for a wretched last place finish finally reaches my local financial sector. But my point is made; let's move on.
They are odd realities, though. You can converse with some of these people nearly every day, but once your season is over its persona non grata time. Some people always maintain contact with others, but the group dialogue disappears completely, to be picked up again only when teams report for camp, and perhaps for the drafts.
During this dormant time, all thoughts of the league disappear from your mind. You might or might not keep up with transactions over the off-season; there's always time to get caught up before your draft, right?
And then a moment arrives. It's the same way every year, every keeper league. It is the moment when you first look at your roster after the many months off. I'm always surprised when I revisit the teams. Did I really make that trade thinking this was a guy I was going to keep? And I was sure I traded that guy...or was it that I wanted to trade him but couldn't? Sometimes the surprises are pleasant, but usually not. They typically aren't "Hindenberg" bad; it's usually more like, What the fuck am I supposed to do with this?
What looked good at the end of last season often doesn't look quite so good going into this season. Sometimes it's due to a playing time issue or injury, but in my case it's usually about the salaries. It just never seems like I give myself players that are priced indisputably below market value, and that's really what you're looking for when you reacqaint yourself with your roster. Of course, those are the types of players everybody else is trying to obtain because they are so rare, so what most people end up with are players who are either slightly above, below, or at market value.
It's hard when you look at the team and see guys that are priced at market value, because market value is difficult to figure out. That's the whole trick to fantasy leagues that use an auction format and keepers: What are guys worth, and what would it take to get a guy on the upcoming market if he was available? That's it. You figure that out and make the appropriate decisions, and you'll win a lot of money and/or accolades.
Tonight I looked at my basketball roster for the first time since May. My reaction was, What the fuck am I supposed to do with this? Now, before I move on and list my guys, I should say that if I ever wanted to say anything bad about any of the women who read Pipeline, this would be the perfect time to do it. I've had at least five different women tell me they immediately or shortly thereafter stop reading whenever Pipeline is about sports, doubly true if it's fantasy sports, so I strongly doubt any of them are along for the ride at this point, and you, sir, might even be wondering why you are still here. But let the record reflect that I think all the women who read Pipeline are swell, even if they are stupid-ass bitches for being ignorant about fantasy sports.
These are the current players on my roster that have any chance of coming back this year. 13 player roster, 8 starters, we count the standard 8 categories, $260 salary cap.
Chris Kaman $6
Dwight Howard $46
Ray Allen $64
Gilbert Arenas $52
Brad Miller $29
If I kept them all, that would leave me $63 for 8 players, which is only acceptable if you've got a rock-solid five guys, and that's not the case in my mind.
Kaman's a keeper at $6. He's solid in the big man categories, shoots a high percentage, and is young so he should continue to get better.
Arenas is a keeper at $52. No-brainer.
Then it gets tough.
Dwight Howard was my rookie from last year, which means I get to keep him this year without the usual $5 (or 10%) raise for players in the second year of a contract. I don't think he'll be worth $46 this year, or go for that amount in the auction if available, but he could very well be worth and cost $51 the season after next. Do I potentially overpay for him this year to underpay for him next year? I don't think I do. The problem is, I have a bit of a bias towards Dwight Howard because I'm the only team to own him in our league so far, and I think the guy's going to be very, very good. It will probably come down to what I think he would fetch in the open market. If I thought he would go for $40, I'd probably keep him, but I'm not even sure of that at this point. But damn, the dude rebounds, blocks shots, and shoots a huge percentage. Big man skills are hard to find, and this dude's not even 20 yet, or just barely. I'll be having this conversation with myself from now till October 28th, when we have to turn in our rosters.
Ray Allen at $64? Traditionally, yes. He's worth that due to crazy 3's, lots of points, enough assists, steals and FTs to lend a hand. But Ray Ray has had some injuries in the last couple years, and he's over 30 now, and last year was his contract year, meaning he just got paid in full. I think $64 is probably right about what he would go for on the market, give or take $5. Plus, Seattle has had a coaching change. New coach Bob Weiss says he intends to maintain the breakneck pace the Sonics had last season, and most people say he was the main X and O guy for Nate McMillan the last few years anyway, so maybe that's not an issue. I guess my view on Allen is that three factors above, especially his age, give me reason to believe the chances of him not earning his $64, perhaps by a dramatic margin, are much better than his chances to greatly exceed his $64 value. I think maybe I should see if someone wants to deal for Ray Allen.
Brad Miller at $29? Got to keep him, right? He does too many things well, plays for an up-tempo team, and is a bargain at that price. That's not to say I think he would go for much more in the draft; Miller's one of those guys who get consistently undervalued because he started with a reputation as a stiff, and he doesn't do much to make the highlight reel. But I think a $29 Brad Miller would suit any team in my league, and this year it will be me.
Well, then. After having talked through that a bit (thanks for being there for me while I sort it out) it seems to me like I might be leaning toward a keeper list of Kaman, Howard, Arenas and Miller. That would give me $127 for 9 players in the auction. I'm liking $14.1 per player a whole lot better than $7.9 per player.
I wonder what I can get for Ray Allen?
1:07:32 AM 
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