Friday, October 13, 2006

Mike On Ice Friend of Pipeline Mike Lara has his english-version blog up and running detailing his adventures in search of the weddell seal in Antarctica.  Absolutely worth a read, just for the spectacular photographs alone. Linus and I are following Mike's travels, and after reading tonight Linus posted his first-ever blog comment.  I think the day may not be far off when I have to consider that he may know how to find and read Pipeline.  Hell, the way things are these days, it may not be long before he has his own blog.  10:21:22 PM    Say what?[]

Andrew Sullivan on the GOP and Gays I caught Andrew Sullivan on Colbert last night.  (I think it was Colbert, or perhaps Daily Show.  The night was kind of a blur.)  I think Sullivan deserves grief for his initial stance on the Bush administration and Iraq, but he was intellectually honest enough to publicly declare himself to have been a fool for supporting them, and I thought he was outstanding in his appearance last night. His position is that the GOP is approaching a watershed moment in their public position on homosexuals.  The GOP, especially in desperate times, has always relied on a certain amount of homophobia to mobilize their base.  But the Foley scandal has helped illuminate what was previously not well-known, the fact that homosexuals have long been a prominent part of GOP offices on Capital Hill.  They are trusted staffers, confidents, advisors, etc.  Sullivan's argument is that the GOP can no longer continue the public charade of treating homosexuals as second class citizens while in private treating them like, you know, actual people.  He believes they will have to make a choice, now that the party's real view of homosexuals has been thrust in the face of the evangelical base: They will either have to go through a public purge of these people to satisfy the base, or they will have to abandon the rhetoric and policy of marginalization.  Or, I suppose they could just continue to live the lie.  But they won't be winning office that way anymore, not with their old formula of riling the base by gay-bashing.  That may be the lasting legacy of the Mark Foley saga.   7:22:29 PM    Say what?[]

Optimism TPM recently posted about ominous poll results for the GOP.  Specifically, the GOP is only generating support with about 50% of "white frequent churchgoers".  That demographic has to come in heavily in support of the GOP in order for the party to offsent poor performance in other demographics.  Basically, if they're only getting 50% of those people, change is a-comin', and fast. Certainly, the picture in individual races will vary, and there is still over three weeks till election day.  But the writing is on the wall. And frankly, I think the polls don't really tell the whole story.  I believe the polls overstate the amount of GOP support, and here's why: Nobody likes to admit they are wrong.  In particular, nobody likes to admit they formerly supported, or even worse, enabled, a group of people who are so demonstrably responsible for so many important failures that will impact history. It's a basic human instinct to stick to your guns, even in the face of evidence suggesting you should do the opposite.  And when history starts to show that your choice had severe ramifications, and the people who perceive themselves to have been right in the first place are willing to throw it back in your face aggressively, as is the case in our partisan culture today, people are even less inclined to publicly declare a mea culpa. I think this applies even to the nameless, faceless pollster on the other end of the line.  People don't want to admit they've changed their mind about such important issues, even to a stranger, especially if they know that stranger is collecting data to be published.  One TPM reader addresses this issue in part in this post, and argues that the Mark Foley scandal gives former GOP supporters an opportunity to change course while also saving face.  I think it's a persuasive argument.  I think it's very likely the poll numbers, already such a disaster across the board for the GOP, actually overstate GOP support.  Perhaps it's only overstated by a small amount, but my intuition tells me it's there.  It's hard for people to admit to others that they were wrong, even to an anonymous pollster.  But put that person in a private polling booth, with just themselves to account for, and the results may change.  It's just human nature. 6:38:49 PM    Say what?[]

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