The Lines
During the last NBA season, myself and a number of other people spent about two months of the NBA season examining the game odds, making picks, and tracking progress. This was not done for gambling purposes (at least for my part); rather, it was an attempt to learn as much as possible about the NBA game itself, and the ups and downs that teams can go through. I can't speak for everybody who participated, but I learned quite a bit.
One thing I learned was that the people who set the lines know exactly what they are doing. These people are good. Though I wasn't ever wagering on the games, the entire concept of the line is based on wager probabilities, so I will discuss it in that context. For the most part, our working assumption was that one needed to get to about 53% to break even, assuming all wagers were the same. I ended up around 59% for the over 200 games I picked, but a curious trend started to appear. I would pick one or two or three "sure things" each day, games I really felt solid about my pick. I was around 53% for those. What does that tell me? That I was probably lucky more than anything.
Again, this is not a wagering exercise. The lines do not represent the predicted margins of victory for the games. They represent the point at which roughly even money will be laid down by the betting public. Any astute follower of the NBA will start to see that some teams are grossly favored or largely ignored by the betting public. The fact that you can recognize this has no bearing on the adjustment of the lines, provided that the public bias remains. Translation? Relatively easy money, figuratively speaking.
Let's check those lines... Line
Chicago (Away 2-27) @
Cleveland (Home 7-18) 2.5
Miami (Away 7-20) @
New Jersey (Home 23-3) 14
Atlanta (Away 4-21) @
Dallas (Home 22-4) 12.5
Milwaukee (Away 11-12) @
Sacramento (Home 20-5) 8
Houston (Away 8-15) @ OFF
Los Angeles Lakers (Home 16-10)
New Orleans (Away 9-17) @
Orlando (Home 15-11) 3.5
Indiana (Away 13-13) @ 4
Memphis (Home 11-15)
Denver (Away 3-24) @
San Antonio (Home 19-4) 14.5
Boston (Away 13-14) @
Golden State (Home 15-11) 2.5
OK, interesting lineup. From the top...
How bad is Cleveland that they are only favored by 2.5 at home against a Chicago team that's 2-27 on the road? Not that bad. Cleveland covers.
Jersey by 14? Miami's real, real bad. But 14 is a big spread. Lots of garbage time in this one, and that's not good for big spreads. I take Miami.
Same deal with Atlanta and Dallas, except Dallas has the bench to keep pouring it on. Plus, they see San Antonio breathing down their necks. They pour it on tonight, Dallas covers.
Sacramento comes off a tough loss to San Antonio. Milwaukee wants to play that run and gun style. Milwaukee covers.
Houston/Lakers is off the board, most likely because of Shaq's injury.
I wasn't impressed with New Orleans when they played the Wolves a week ago, but they didn't have PJ Brown at the time. Still, I'll take Orlando.
Memphis got a nice win against Milwaukee last week, and they aren't too bad at home. I think they cover.
San Antonio big over Denver? Big spread...but San Antonio keeps rolling. They cover.
Boston's surprisingly decent on the road. Golden State will play to Pierce and Walker's game. Boston covers.
Tune in tomorrow to see how we did.
2:56:22 PM 
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