The Seer Sees: Week 6 of the NFL
Hey, howdy hey, as Sheriff Woody would say. But has Sheriff Woody ever fashioned a tidy 55.6% winning percentage on his NFL picks against the spread? If he had, instead of playing second banana to Buzz Lightyear, he'd be hitting all the parties with a babe on each arm (Barbie and Raggedy Ann, most likely). That's how it is when you're a player in the heady world of NFL prognostication. Check this little tidbit from Ralph Wiley's recent column on Rush Limbaugh, (a good read) taken from his discussion of Rush's talents as a prognosticator:
The first week, right out of the box, to prove himself, and establish his presence with authority, Rush picked a road dog (that's prognosticator-speak for road underdog-The Seer), the Patriots to beat the Bills in Buffalo. The Bills won 31-0. The next week, Rush picked the Patriots to beat the Eagles in Philly. This time, New England won. So far, Rush is batting .500, (the pro analyst will bat .550 -- .750 in crunch-time -- and there's the difference)...
Well, OK: So the Seer has only been above that "pro analyst" benchmark of .550 for a week now, and yes, batting .750 during the playoffs will be a chore, but dammit, this is the closest we can get to good press from the mainstream liberal media!
But let's move on, remembering of course that the goal is still the hallowed mark of 58%. Hallowed for reasons that aren't clear to the Seer, when in reality 55% would float just about anybody's boat. But we don't play it that way here at the Pipe. When those other chumps only give you 55% success, we want to give you 58. It's a part of our credo, our mission statement, our raison d'etre: To Be 3% Better Than Those Other Chumps.
Speaking of our good friends, the French, I'd like to share a little anecdote with you about my son Linus. I'm teaching him about football with the aid of the PlayStation2 and John Madden's digitized persona. It's really quite the educational tool. He knows about linebackers, first downs (shaky, at best, but he knows the term), he knows to say "Down, set, HIKE!" before anything can happen. Football is a complicated game, really. It ain't soccer or baseball, you know?
Anyway, I always ask him what team he wants to be. Typically, he's the Vikings, but he has shown a disturbing tendency of late to cry out that he wants to be the Dragons. He does this forcefully. "The Dragons?", I say. "There isn't a team called the Dragons." Oh, but there is. Madden has the NFL Europe teams, which means we have the Barcelona Dragons available to us. I must have the only kid in the U.S. who wants to be an NFL Europe team.
On with the picks!
Giants @ Patriots, Patriots by 3
We'll just admit this--The Seer frequently confuses the Giants, Bills and Patriots for the same team. It's sort of like the Kevin Bacon Phenomenon, only with Bill Parcells, Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy and the team colors. (In fact, Parcells and Bacon are linked, and this site will tell you how!) Parcells coached the Giants. Then he coached the Patriots. Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy played for the Patriots. Now they play for the Bills. Bill Belichick used to be a coach for Parcells with the Giants, now he coaches the Patriots. The Giants and Bills met in a Super Bowl. All three teams use the Red, White and Blue color motif, and for good measure, all three teams are from the same region. And don't even get me started on Antowain Smith. It's not that the Seer can't keep them straight, because he can. It's just that sometimes he has to sit down and do a flow chart or consult a color wheel or tarot cards, or read Parcell's biography to keep it all straight.
And when they play each other (which happens at least twice a year), it gets even worse. But, after the proper consultations, we have clarified exactly who is playing who. New England is still missing some key people on defense, but they hung a big 38 points on a good Tennessee defense last week, and Bill Belichick is still a master schemer. The Seer has a feeling this is going to be a close game, though.
The Seer Sees: The Giants beat the spread
Buccanneers @ Redskins, Redskins by 3
No way. No fuckin' way. Look, the Seer knows the Bucs looked bad that last three minutes, and we know they just played a rough Monday game and have a short practice week, and we know they just lost Mike Alstott. This Bucs team is vulnerable, and now the injuries are starting to pile up. But this spread just ain't right. We're going with the "cornered animal" theory here.
The Seer Sees: Buccaneers beat the spread
Raiders @ Browns, Browns by 2.5
Oh, the indignity. But that's what having an average team age of 54 and coming off a loss to the Bears will do for your lines. The Seer sees no reason to invest in Raiders stock these days. The Browns, on the other hand, have a few things working in their favor. The first is that they have properly recognized which quarterback they should be playing. The second is that this was a young playoff team last year, as opposed to an old one like the Raiders. The third is that the linebacking corps is gellin' (like a felon).
The Seer Sees: Browns cover
Panthers @ Colts, Colts by 5.5
Hot game, maybe even the game of the week. You'd have to be a drunk placekicker to not think Peyton Manning is the real deal right now. The great ones need games and moments that live on in story and legend, and Manning and the Colts (and the Bucs and the refs) gave ESPN Classic a solid three hours of new programming last Monday night. But last the Seer checked, the Panthers were undefeated, featured a nasty defense very similar to the Bucs D that shut Manning and Co. down for 3.5 quarters on Monday, and have a great runner in Stephen Davis. The Seer thinks this will be a great game that the Colts will win, but don't the Panthers deserve more respect than being 5.5 point dogs, especially with the Colts coming off a short week?
The Seer Sees: The Panthers beat the spread
Chiefs @ Packers, Packers by 2
The Seer will be personally attending this game (thanks to Friend of Pipeline Grant K.), and the Seer is pretty damn happy about it. The Packers have regained their winning form, and while the Chiefs are undefeated and feature the Greatest Kick Returner On Earth, their offense has been struggling badly. Despite childhood loyalties to the team from K.C., the Seer recognizes that they have been fortunate to win their last two games. Besides, can you imagine the peril the Seer might encounter if the locals were to find out that he picked the Chiefs? Although, the Seer will be with at least one yokel proudly wearing a Chiefs jersey, so it could be worse. This one's for you, Nate...
The Seer Sees: The Packers cover
Texans @ Titans, Titans by 10
Ah, the Bud Adams Revenge Bowl. For those that recall, the Titans were the Oilers. As it usually happens, the Oilers/Titans skipped Houston right before they got good, which you know was a dagger, a dagger!, in the hearts of Houston football fans everywhere. But while wins over the Cowboys (last year), Dolphins and Jags have been a bit of a salve on the open wounds of former Oiler fans, those wounds will be reopened at the hands of Steve McNair, the QB they should have been able to root for all this time. The Texans aren't terrible, but the Titans are coming off a loss and can't afford to Mess With Texas.
The Seer Sees: Titans cover
Dolphins @ Jaguars, Dolphins by 4
Byron Leftwhich gets his first start for the Jags, and the Mark Brunell Era is officially over in north Florida. Ah, the memories. Brunell, in his day, was a running, gunning fantasy machine who praised the Lord at every opportunity. Hopefully he's not delivering a preachy sermon to Leftwich each time he relays a play in on the helmet headset. Allow us to digress for a moment here, and wonder why all the players don't get to have headsets in their helmets. What would that hurt, really? They don't all have to hear plays being relayed in; they could listen to the announcers on TV, or they could listen to Outkast, or perhaps the McNeil-Lehrer Report.
In any event, this is an admission by the Jags that they are Starting Over, and we'll just have to see if Leftwich can stay healthy and be effective. The Dolphins have been playing very well, and the Seer expects that to continue.
The Seer Sees: Dolphins cover
Bears @ Saints, Saints by 5
Ugh. Has anyone else noticed that there have been a lot of bear maulings in the news lately? Well, maybe not maulings. But David Letterman had that bear problem in his Montana cabin, and a woman was mauled by a bear in Minnesota a few weeks ago, and of course that thing happened to the Raiders last week. Roy was mauled, and even though a tiger was doing the actual mauling, the Seer has it on good authority (Dick Cheney) that a bear was involved in the planning of that mauling, even though Czech authorities cannot confirm that account. (Speaking of the linked story above, I know it's a horrible thing and all, but what did this guy think, that Kodiak Island was his own personal petting zoo? Why can't people accept the majesty and beauty of dangerous animals without trying to prove they are some kind of Bear Whisperer? I know it's not right, but when I read about the bear actually sitting on the guy's remains, I just had this image of the bear, somewhere in his bear mind thinking, "Who did this guy think he was dealing with? This is OUR forest. Those 'Beware of Bear' signs apply to everybody, even you, bub.")
Unfortunately, I can't find any recent record of saint maulings.
Yippee. The Bears won a game last week. They still suck. The Saints suck, too, but they have much, much more talent. Didn't we just say last week we were done with picking the Saints? We didn't see the Bears on the schedule...
The Seer Sees: Saints cover
Eagles @ Dallas, pick 'em
Pick 'em? OK.
The Seer Sees: Eagles win, liberal media can't decide which black QB to nominate for Hall of Fame, decides to denounce both white coaches.
Bills @ Jets, Bills by 3
Well, that Buffalo hype has sure died down a bit, hasn't it? The Seer thinks this is a tough game, because the Bills will probably be without Eric Moulds. The Jets aren't awful, they just aren't good. I'm not yet sold on Buffalo being a team that can just walk in and dominate. The Jets are starting to see a bit of light at the end of the injury tunnel, with Chad Pennington practicing lightly. Since they are home, since they have to win sometime, and since the Bills haven't exactly been blowing people away...
The Seer Sees: Jets beat the spread
Steelers @ Broncos, Broncos by 6.5
What happened to the Steelers last week against the Browns? They can't run the ball, for one thing, an alarming development for a team that has featured such a blue-collar identity for so long. But now there is word that Jake Plummer is doubtful for the game. Beuerline is pretty good, though. This is a big spread, but...
The Seer Sees: Broncos cover
Ravens @ Cardinals, Ravens by 5.5
Well, Emmitt Smith is out for a long time, and perhaps forever, with a broken shoulder blade, an injury that the Seer can't remember happening before, and one which sounds damn painful. That's a really big spread for a road team that doesn't score many points, but we would expect Baltimore to just run like crazy, and we don't think the Cardinals can stop them.
The Seer Sees: Ravens cover
49ers @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 3.5
No clue. It's OK to admit that, right? Seattle got whacked last week by the Packers, while the 49ers were happy simply to not have a meltdown on the sidelines. Still, the 49ers have been bad on the road this year, and this Seattle team is real enough to bounce back and cover this spread.
The Seer Sees: Seahawks cover
Monday Night
Falcons @ Rams, Rams by 12
This is the problem with doing the schedules so far in advance, not that it can be avoided. This would have been a blast if Vick were healthy, but instead we get a delusional Doug Johnson, who spent his postgame conference last week talking about what a shame it was for the Falcons to lose to the Vikings, because the Falcons are the better team. Huh? Still, 12 points is a huge spread, and we haven't seen the Rams blowing anybody out except the Cardinals at home, and the Falcons have more talent than the Cardinals. An easy Rams win, but despite better judgement, the gut says...
The Seer Sees: Falcons beat the spread
There you have it. Have fun this weekend as you watch the leaves begin their descent to the ground.
12:55:24 PM 
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