Doug Hennessee: The Game Pipeline

Mon, 17 Nov 2003 15:43:57 GMT

The Seer Goes Blind

Ouch. That burning sensation in the Seer's rectum is the direct result of a horrific 6-9 Sunday that brings the overall record to 79-61, good for a 56.4% success rate against the spread. It was bound to happen sooner or later; we hadn't even had a week under .500 yet. Our biggest regret is picking the Vikings to cover a 4.5 point spread against the Raiders. Sure, the Raiders were 2-7, and sure, they were starting Rick Mirer, and sure, they were missing their top halfback, and yes, they were also missing two starters on the defensive line.

The Vikings never had a chance. The Seer, having seen the three previous Viking outings, should have known better. And that Cardinal pick really worked out, too.

What a disaster. This isn't going to help the "Real Money" cause with Mrs. Seer, and frankly, the Seer questions that cause himself.

Fri, 14 Nov 2003 22:02:48 GMT

The Seer Sees: Week 11 of the NFL

Sorry for the late posting. We were so sated with our 73-52 mark, good for a 58.4% success rate against the spread, that we nearly forgot to do the picks this week.

Rush job? Nah. The Seer Sees enough to prophesize the following:

Texans @ Bills, Bills by 7

Come on. Houston's better than that, and Buffalo isn't. Seven is too much. Is the Seer not seeing something?

The Seer Sees: Texans beat the spread

Redskins @ Panthers, Panthers by 6

Big statement game from the Panthers last week, and this could be a letdown, but you know Stephen Davis is going to try to get back at his old team for non-tendering him. Plus, you go that Panther pass rush against the no-check down offense of the Fun & Gun (Hereby renamed the Smack & Sack). This line should be bigger.

The Seer Sees: Panthers cover

Rams @ Bears, Rams by 6

Favored by 6 on the road, the Rams are. Why is the Seer talking like Yoda? The Rams haven't covered for two weeks now. We just don't think the Bears have the talent to stay with the Rams.

The Seer Sees: Rams cover

Chiefs @ Bengals, Chiefs by 6

The Seer has a friend, a Chiefs fan, who claimed that he didn't care if the Chiefs went undefeated. The Seer immediately called Bullshit on that. The Bengals aren't pushovers, and don't you just get the feeling KC is due for a scare? Maybe not a loss, but a scare? The Seer does.

And let the record reflect that as a childhood Chiefs fan, the Seer is very much rooting for the Chiefs to go as far as they can. We're not a Chiefs hater. We just think undefeated seasons have some real rough patches along the way.

The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread

Cardinals @ Browns, Browns by 6

The Cardinals on the road. You know what that means, right? But Williams Green is out for four weeks, meaning the Browns have virtually no running game, meaning this is a tougher call than we would like it to be. But Bill Simmons always says, "Never take the Cards on the road." Sure, but have you seen Simmons' record in NFL picks this year? Sorry, SportsGuy. The Seer knows a better way.

The Seer Sees: Cardinals beat the spread

Ravens @ Dolphins, Dolphins by 5.5

Another screwy line. Why are people all over the Dolphins right now? Oh, it's because the Ravens can only run the ball, and the Dolphins have great LBs.

The Seer Sees: Dolphins cover

Falcons @ Saints, Saints by 8.5

Don't mess with the Falcons! Coming off a big win in New York, this is the respect they get? They get the emotional boost from last week's win, plus the light at the end of the tunnel that is Michael Vick's recovery. Simmon's thoughts on the Saints sticks with us here, unlike the Cardinal Rule.

The Seer Sees: Falcons cover

Giants @ Eagles, Eagles by 3.5

Tough, tough game to call. The Eagles just didn't look all that great to me against the Pack last Monday, plus they are on a short week. The Giants are missing Jeremy Shockey, but it's not like he was scoring any TDs anyway, right? After last week's game, they'll come to play.

The Seer Sees: Giants beat the spread

Jaguars @ Titans, Titans by 10

Big spreads scare me. Jags just beat the Colts last week by minimizing mistakes. 10 is a big spread. We'll regret this, but...

The Seer Sees: Jaguars beat the spread

Chargers @ Broncos, Broncos by 8

Doug Flutie ain't no 8 point dog. We're going heavy on the road teams this week. Maybe too heavy.

The Seer Sees: Chargers beat the spread

Jets @ Colts, Colts by 6

I hear the Colts will be without Marcus Pollard and Marvin Harrison this week. The Jets should continue to jell.

The Seer Sees: Jets beat the spread

Vikings @ Raiders, Vikings by 4.5

Didn't anybody see the Vikings' last three games? The Raiders will counter with Rick Mirer, who could have the game of his life. But this madness has to stop sometime, no? No?

The Seer Sees: Vikings cover

Lions @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 10.5

Big spread. But the Lions chew, and they are on the road after a win. They are complacent, and thinking ahead to Turkey Day.

The Seer Sees: Seahawks cover

Packers @ Buccaneers, Buccaneers by 4

Tough call. The Bucs haven't shown us they are an elite team at this point in the year. But we keep believing, like suckers.

The Seer Sees: Buccaneers cover

Cowboys @ Patriots, Patriots by 4

Coaching matchup of the year, in this one. Two great, resourceful teams. Sort of like Master and Commander, only with more gay overtones.

The Seer Sees: Patriots cover

Monday Night

Steelers @ 49ers, 49ers by 4

Steelers start the climb back, only to be thwarted by TO in OT. How's that for a call?

The Seer Sees: 49ers cover

Fri, 07 Nov 2003 17:18:28 GMT

Randy Moss Roasts Another Defender

The Seer Sees: Week 10

We move down backside of the NFL schedule with the Seer sporting a tidy 65-46 record, good for a 58.6% success rate against the spread. But what does that mean in money terms? Well, let's say the Seer was betting $30 per game. Since we're currently 19 games over .500, the math on the winnings works like this: 19 x 30 ='s $570. But of course, we have to take the vig out of that (the vig being the house's take on all bets, win or lose, and the real way they make their cash). I don't know what the exact vig would be, but we'll call it 7%. Once we take that away from our overall wagered amount, we end up ahead by about $530. Now, we must stress, we have never, and probably will never bet on an NFL game, or any other type of game. It's all just for fun, though if the Seer can end the year above 60%, well, all bets are off, as they say. (Personally, I don't think being up $530 would be worth the stress of having to actually care how these games come out, though if I were betting $30,000 per game, I would be up $53,000...)

Before we go on, a housekeeping item--The Seer has changed line sources. We now use the USAToday, and we'll just go with the first book listed, which is World Wide TeleSports, located in Antigua and Barbuda. The Seer visited their operation this week, and they not only know the NFL, but they make a mean pina colada. So props to my peeps in the islands, and here we go.

Buccaneers @ Panthers, Bucs by 3

Ooh, the Panthers can't like that. No respect! They beat the Bucs in Tampa, and now they are home dogs to a team that's staring up at them from the standings? But there is trouble in Carolina. Stephen Davis is wearing down, and it could be that the offense is just too vanilla to stay ahead of the schemes of the defensive coordinators they face in the second half of the season. But Tampa's O-line is banged up, and the Panthers got that nasty pass rush. And Tampa's defense is banged up, still. And they still can't run the ball very well. It's Tampa's season on the line, more or less. The Seer still thinks they are a great team beset with injuries. Greatness needs to step up.

The Seer Sees: Bucs cover

Texans @ Bengals, Bengals by 5.5

Hmm. The Bengals lost a tough one to the Cardinals last week. The Texans, meanwhile, beat the Panthers. This line seems a bit on the large side to the Seer. The Bengals are better, but they aren't blowing people out.

The Seer Sees: Texans beat the spread

Bears @ Lions, Lions by 2

Say what? The Lions are favored? We know they are at home, and we know it's the Bears and all, but the Bears at least have shown something since Chris Chandler took over at QB. All the Lions have done is beat the Raiders. Big deal. Maybe Mariucci's starting to work his magic? You know it will happen sooner or later, but where's the talent?

The Seer Sees: The Bears beat the spread

Colts @ Jaguars, Colts by 6

The Jags sure do suck. Suck bad. The Colts are good, but they'll lay an egg every once in awhile. It's a big line, and Jacksonville has been getting worked pretty regularly. We originally had this the other way, but the Seer sees a letdown possibility for the Colts here. If Leftwich can cut his turnovers down, this can be a close game. We'll probably regret this one, but...

The Seer Sees: The Jags beat the spread

Browns @ Chiefs, Chiefs by 9.5

That's a big spread against a decent team like the Browns. But the Chiefs are coming off the bye, and well, they're just really damn good. Arrowhead is tough on any team, and Browns' RB William Green is suspended for a DUI this game. Chiefs keep rollin'...

The Seer Sees: The Chiefs cover

Falcons @ Giants, Giants by 10.5

Yikes. How bad do you have to be to be a 10.5 dog to the Giants? Answer: As bad as the Falcons.

The Seer Sees: The Giants cover

Cardinals @ Steelers, Steelers by 7

Big line for a mediocre Steelers team, against a Cardinals team that has beaten the Niners, Packers and Bengals. But all of those wins were at home, not a tough, cold place like Heinz Field. And the Steelers aren't out of their race yet, meaning that this could be where their season jump-starts.

The Seer Sees: Steelers cover

Dolphins @ Titans, Titans by 5

The Dolphins' O-line is banged up, and that's a bad thing with Brian Griese at QB and the Titans on the other side of the ball. That's enough for the Seer.

The Seer Sees: Titans cover

Seahawks @ Redskins, Seahawks by 3

Who knows what to make of the Redskins these days? There is major turmoil surrounding Steve Spurrier and his offensive scheme, and those aren't things that can be fixed from week-to-week. But for whatever reason, we just have a feeling about this game...

The Seer Sees: Redskins beat the spread

Vikings @ Chargers, Vikings by 5.5

This game scares the Seer to death. The Vikings can't stop the run. The Chargers have LaDainian Tomlinson. An unstoppable force meets a very moveable object.

The Seer Sees: Chargers beat the spread

Bills @ Dallas, Dallas by 4

Hey, it's a rematch of those two lousy Superbowls! Someday, perhaps I will tell you the story of how I saw that first Dallas/Buffalo Superbowl, in the midst of a wild party of drunk and scary strangers in Columbia, MO. But today is not that day. Dallas's coach is better than Buffalo's coach. A lot better.

The Seer Sees: Dallas covers

Jets @ Raiders, Jets by 3

The ultimate indignity. Super Bowl last year, now a home dog to a Jets team with a losing record. And the Raiders have more than earned it. They really are this bad, and the Jets are a team on the rise now that Curtis Martin is playing well and Chad Pennington is back. But this is still the Raiders, and there is still talent on this team, and it is still the Black Hole. The Raiders are playing for pride at this point. Do they have pride?

The Seer Sees: Raiders beat the spread

Ravens @ Rams, Rams by 7

The Rams just got ambushed in Frisco last week, plain and simple. They'll bounce back, and Marshall Faulk's in the fold, to boot. The Rams are smart enough to not run at Ray Lewis all game long, aren't they?

The Seer Sees: Rams cover

Eagles @ Packers, Packers by 4.5

Yawn. Favre on Monday night in Lambeau. McNabb is hurt again. Packers are back in the race, big time.

The Seer Sees: Packers cover

Mon, 03 Nov 2003 16:21:20 GMT

The Seer Sees Mediocrity

Well, the Seer wasn't going to go 10-4 every week, was he? Is that what you expected? Still, we have yet to finish beneath .500 in any week (a major, major feat), and this week was no exception: The Seer currently stands at 7-6 for Week 9, bringing the overall record to a still-outstanding 64-46, good for a 58.2% success rate against the spread.

We like the Patriots to beat a 2 point spread in Denver tonight.

Fri, 31 Oct 2003 18:44:49 GMT

The Pipeline NBA Primer

Man, is it NBA season already? It only seems like it was four months ago that we were all sitting back and not watching the Spurs beat the Nets. Well, it’s that time again, and if you ask me, this is the most intriguing NBA season in at least two years. I mean, look at the story lines…

Kobe

It pretty much stands to reason when one of THE stars of the league is actively facing life in prison at worst, and severely tarnishing a budding legend at best, that it’s going to be the story of the year. But there’s always more than one angle when you’re talking about the Lakers. Kobe and Shaq have already begun their season-long spat, and all of this overshadows what was supposed to be one of the big stories this year: Gary Payton and Karl Malone joining the Lake Show to make them the greatest assemblage of talent since the ’92 Dream Team. Even that issue has issues: Will they share the ball? How will the personalities mesh? Personally, I find the Lakers to be a difficult team to like, even though I generally enjoy Shaq and I have always loved Gary Payton. I can’t stand Malone. I detest him and truly believe him to be a dirty player who is overrated. And Kobe’s just an ass. Yeah, I’ve seen him do some amazing things, and physically at times I do think he belongs in Jordan’s realm of greatness. But he’s just such a knob about so many other parts of the game. His shot selection is horrible. He’ll take the one or two games a week that he just can’t miss and base his shot selection for the next five games on that, and shoot something like 35%. That means that five out of seven games, he’s just a guy stealing shots from other guys while trying to be some highlight reel. And his bad shots are BAD shots, gunning from 25 with tons of time on the clock and guys standing around the perimeter waiting to get the ball in the offense. Kobe, by his very nature and the nature of the game, is at odds with each other teammate’s game at any given time. How can that be greatness?

LeBron

Remember when the focus was all on LeBron, and people were talking about how it was so wrong that a high school kid should get so much scrutiny and/or adulation? Haven’t heard much about that since Kobe hit Vail, have we? As sad as the Kobe thing is on so many levels, it’s probably one of the best things that could have happened to LeBron. Can you imagine the feeding frenzy the media would have been having with his horrific preseason shooting if the media wasn’t all looking toward central Colorado and LA? A lot of the basketball fans I talk to are really split on LeBron. Some people I know have severe animus toward him, such that in the middle of his senior year in high school these people were already predicting a career of ruin and unmet expectations. Some of this was based on reading the tea leaves of LeBron’s televised high school games, while some was based on, for lack of a better word, karma. I guess my feeling is, how can you not want the guy to succeed? I mean, there aren’t many special players in any sport, players that evoke a certain visceral joy in a wide range of people who may see them play.

Michael Who?

How do we know that it’s really time for Michael to move on? Because, unlike the last six times he retired, nobody is batting an eye this time around. The guard has been changed, and a new #23 in red has emerged, not to mention the stories above, not to mention Yao, not to mention the Amazing West’s Top Five of the Lakers, Mavericks, Spurs, Wolves and Kings.

The New Style

There are several teams with new looks. As in, the threads they wear. I haven’t seen them all, yet, but I’ve seen several I like. Cleveland did their new uniforms right. They could have gone garish, but instead they went retro with a classic deep red and gold, with a nice logo. I made fun of Houston’s logo back when they unveiled it, but the actual uniforms are an understated red and silver (think Ohio State). I think they only acquired Jim Jackson so he could relive his Buckeye glory years in the new duds. Denver’s UCLA/Carolina fusion of gold and light blue is as sharp as sharp is. Phoenix played last night in a nifty orange number with a muted gray trim. I think they wore an all-orange uni a few times last year, but the gray trim seemed new. Orlando has simplified their look, and Toronto sported an all-red look the other night. The thing I’m seeing is that more teams are wearing the color uniform at home this year, forcing the road team to wear the white, sort of how the NFL does things.

The Seer Peeks In

It’s too early for a full-on prognostication, but here are the Seer’s early thoughts on how the races shape up…

The West is the most gaudy collection of talented teams I have ever seen, in any sporting division. They’re like a PlayStation tournament that you put together with all the classic teams. I rank them like this:

Lakers

Wolves

Mavericks

Spurs

Kings

Rockets

Suns

Grizzlies

Yeah, that’s right. I think the Grizz have a chance to get to the playoffs this year, especially now that Elton Brand is out for up to six weeks for the Clippers. In truth, I could see spots 2 through 4 going any which way, but I think the Lakers are the prohibitive favorite (barring health and/or legal setbacks), and I think the Kings are the solid fifth choice with Webber’s continued injuries. The thing is, the Rockets and Suns might be better than the best team in the East. Hell, Portland might be better than the best team in the East.

As for the East, they suck again. All of them. They all suck. We said the same thing last year, and received defensive emails from Celtic fans and whatnot, but as you can imagine, we didn’t any more of that nonsense once the snow hit the ground. Still, somebody’s gotta win that Conference, right? I see the top eight like this:

New Jersey

Detroit

Indiana

Philadelphia

New Orleans

Boston

Orlando

Cleveland

Hey now! Did the Seer just call the Cavs a playoff team? Yes, he did. Maybe Washington sneaks in there, or maybe Toronto is better than I think. But does it really matter? Remember, they all suck. The only teams with upside on the list above are Detroit, Indiana and Cleveland. All the others, don’t we pretty much know what we are getting? In all seriousness, Jersey is a very solid team, but can they really be a great team? I don’t see it. What I’m looking at is Larry Brown’s impact in Detroit, the impact of NOT having Isiah Thomas on the sidelines in Pacerland, and the general improvement of the Cavaliers around LeBron as their leader. Sure, you could point to Glenn Robinson’s arrival in Philly, or Antoine Walker’s departure from Boston as being major sea changes, but what would be the point? The teams still aren’t good enough to aspire to anything except get beaten by Detroit or Jersey in the Conference Finals. Why I even bother talking about the East is a mystery; I only do it as a backhanded slap to my Buck Fan friends, so they can see their team get nary a mention.

The Four McHales

And now, I present to you the rawest of the raw materials for the first-ever trophy to be awarded to the winner of the Rock & Roll Dogs Fantasy Basketball League—The Four McHales. Why Four McHales? Well, the answers are many. What other NBA GM has their own bobblehead doll? What other bobblehead doll could I find in the $1 shopping cart at my local Rainbow Foods? Previously, our league had no trophy, only a blanket license to proceed to make an Insufferable Gloating Ass (actuall wording in the rules) of themselves to other owners for the following year. But it became painfully clear that too many non-winners were availing themselves of this privilege, and so The Travelling Trophy Of The Four McHales is being created deep in the recesses of my workshop for presentation to the winner of our league each year. The completed design will feature the Four McHales, mounted to a hand-made platform (pedestal, if you will) made of the finest oak, sanded and tung oiled by me personally, with the careful attention to detail and quality one might expect from a European Master. When asked if they felt it was right that yours truly has never won the RRD title, after a slight nudge to the side all four McHales vigorously shook their head in amazement and wonder. When asked if this was to be the year of my ultimate glory, after a slight tap to the top of the head, all McHales nodded in staunch agreement.

You can’t argue with Kevin McHale, Hall of Famer and GM of the Timberwolves. You just can’t. To argue with four of him would just be madness.

Thu, 30 Oct 2003 17:56:41 GMT

The Seer Sees: Week 9 of the NFL

The Seer is rolling with a 57-40 record, good for a 58.8% winning percentage against the spread. What will Week 9 bring?

Giants @ Jets, Giants by 1.5

The Jets are getting better each week, while the Giants may have saved their season last week against the Vikings. The Giants were an offensive dynamo outside the Red Zone last week, but Kerry Collins played like a stiff down by the endzones. This will be a very close game between two teams fighting to stay in the race. The loser's in bad shape in the playoff race.

The Seer Sees: Giants cover

Jaguars @ Ravens, Ravens by 6.5

Byron Leftwich has struggled with throwing too many interceptions this season, and the Jags are currently looking like a team that will have a top three pick in the draft next year. Baltimore hasn't been great this year, but as rookie QB Kyle Boller continues to grow, they could be a dangerous team come playoff time. Still, this is a large spread for a team that features primarily a running offense, and if the Ravens were ever going to look past a game, it would be this one.

The Seer Sees: Jaguars beat the spread

Raiders @ Lions, Raiders by 2.5

What a scintillating matchup this is! The Raiders start to learn whether Marques Tuiasosopop is the QB of the future, while both teams continue to understand that whatever the future holds, it's probably not going to be all that pleasant in the short-term.

The Seer Sees: Raiders cover

Chargers @ Bears, Bears by 2.5

We didn't think we would see the Bears favored against any opponent not from Detroit this season, but here we are. It's a shame that LaDainian Tomlinson's talent is being wasted on the Chargers of 2003, but still, is this team really this bad? Is doesn't seem like they should be, but given the record, and given that they are coming off a short practice week while they still worry about the homefires...

The Seer Sees: Bears cover (!)

Colts @ Dolphins, Dolphins by 3

Griese's in at QB. We don't think it matters. The Dolphins are a fine team, but this spread is too big.

The Seer Sees: Colts beat the spread

Saints @ Buccaneers, Bucs by 8

Can someone, anyone, explain why this spread is so outrageously large? The Saints have been a bad, underachieving unit all year long, but the Bucs aren't exactly at full strength. The lines have been undervaluing the Bucs all year long, but this line's too far the other direction.

The Seer Sees: Saints beat the spread

Redskins @ Cowboys, Cowboys by 4

Ooh, another big spread. The Redskins are in freefall, and the Cowboys are licking their wounds after coming up short in Tampa last week. We like Parcells to outcoach Spurrier.

The Seer Sees: Cowboys cover

Panthers @ Texans, Panthers by 5.5

This is a tough one. The Texans are playing with Tony Banks at QB, and haven't been too bad at home as they ride Domanick Davis's recent hot streak. Still, the Panthers should be able to physically beat up on the outmanned Texans, big spread and all...

The Seer Sees: Panthers cover

Bengals @ Cardinals, Bengals by 3

Bengals favored on the road? Must be in Arizona. But hey, the Cardinals have home wins over the 49ers and Packers this year, so it's not like this is a bye. Jeff Blake gets to play against his old team, while the Bengals try to keep their forward momentum. The Seer thinks the Bengals are a decent team, and that the Cardinals are not a decent team. But the Bengals are still young and on the road, and this could be a bit of a letdown for them.

The Seer Sees: Cardinals beat the spread

Steelers @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 4.5

The Seer is not used to seeing such a mediocre Steelers squad. Not much feeling about this game, other than that the Steelers' secondary has been awful this year, and that's probably not going to change on this day. Still, the Steelers seem better than this, and the season is slipping away fast. They are desperate...

The Seer Sees: Steelers beat the spread

Eagles @ Falcons, Eagles by 4

Two teams the Seer has little regard for in their current states. Call us when Michael Vick returns.

The Seer Sees: The Eagles cover

Rams @ 49ers, Rams by 2.5

Tough call. The Rams are hot, and Marshall Faulk returns at least in limited duty. The 49ers are coming off of a tough and demoralizing loss in Arizona. This Rams team is for real.

The Seer Sees: Rams cover

Packers @ Vikings, Vikings by 4

Favre in a dome with a broken thumb. The Vikings, with their attention focused after a lackluster effort, will work hard to reestablish the run with Michael Bennett's return. The Packers just don't have the players...

The Seer Sees: Vikings cover

Monday Night

Patriots @ Broncos, Broncos by 2

Really? With Danny Kanell and without 2 of their top linebackers? Sorry, that's not what it says here...

The Seer Sees: Patriots beat the spread

Thu, 23 Oct 2003 18:18:57 GMT

The Seer Sees: Week 8 of the NFL

Well, here we are, almost halfway through and sporting a deity-like 49-34 record against the spread, good for 59.0%. The goal, of course, was 58%, and although some are pushing the Seer to admit that he undersold his prodigious prognositication powers, we here at the Pipeline know it's a long season, and that one week's 10-4 can just as easily be a 4-10 if the breaks work the other way.

But there are doubters. Some have asked where the Seer gets his lines. He gets them here. Why Bobby Babowski? We don't know. We liked the name, because it screamed "football" and "mafia". Frankly, we think Bobby Babowski doesn't really exist, and is just a front name for an amalgamation of nerdy John Clayton lookalikes holed up in front of a computer.

If you go to that site, you'll see there's a lot of play in the various outlets' lines at any given time. Sometimes, they are all of like mind, as they are currently on the over/under for the Seahawks/Bengals tilt. Everybody seems to agree, as of Thursday morning, that the over-under for that game is 42 points. That is subject to change, of course, depending on how much action the book is getting on one side or the other.

Speaking of action, let's get to it...

Browns @ Patriots, Patriots by 5

Sheesh, will the Brown's QB Controversey ever end? Why don't they just put Brian Sipe in and forget about it? At some point, you've got to pick a guy and ride him, even through the bad stretches. This QB shuffle is just a diasaster for a coach, because if the team loses there is no way he can ever deflect the blame elsewhere. If Butch Davis goes with Couch too long and they lose, Davis is the goat. Same if he goes with Holcomb and they lose. If he shuffles them and they lose, Davis is still the goat. The only way to solve it is to deal one of them. At least that way if they lose, there's only one QB for the fans to fixate on for being the loser. Davis would still get some heat for keeping the wrong guy, but he would at least have something returning in the trade to point to for next year. This way they have nothing but false choices to make.

As for this game, it's a big spread, but Cleveland is so up and down against medicore competition that it's hard to know what you are going to get in any given week. The Patriots, on the other hand, have been consistently good now for a few weeks despite injuries, a testament to Bill Belichick's coaching. They're still banged up, though, which makes this one a tougher call than the Seer thought it would be.

The Seer Sees: Patriots Cover

Broncos @ Ravens, Pick 'em

Interesting. Bobby Babowski has this as an even game, Heritage, ABC Island and Olympic all have the Ravens favored by 1.5, and Sportbet has the Broncos favored by 1.5. You typically only see that kind of variation in games like this, where the Broncos will have Danny Kanell at QB as the third injury option. Kanell looked good in rallying the Broncos against the Vikings, but the pass blocking sure did suck. The Ravens stop the run very well, and it would seem that's the main thing Denver needs to do in this game. Overall, we were impressed with Denver last week. They swarm the ball on defense with good team speed, and Clinton Portis is a stud. Given a week to work with Kanell, we like Shanahan's chances to pull out what is nearly a must-win on the road if they are going to keep pace with the Chiefs.

The Seer Sees: Broncos win

Rams @ Steelers, Steelers by 1

An odd spread, at first glance, given the directions each team has been headed. But the Steelers are coming off a bye, and have made several changes in the O-line and at RB, where they intend to restart the Bus, Jerome Bettis. Look, there's a reason the guy wasn't getting snaps in the first place, right? Seems like a desperate move by a desperate team to me. The Rams, meanwhile, have reinvented themselves as a tough team that can light it up, all while Marshall Faulk and Kurt Warner watch from the side. Give credit to Mike Martz for keeping extra blockers in to protect, and with Bulger's great release and arm, this team is a serious problem. It just doesn't look like Cowher's Steelers have it this year, but of course they started slow last year, too. If it's going to happen, it needs to happen right now.

The Seer Sees: Rams beat the spread

Seahawks @ Bengals, Seahawks by 3

Interesting game. Corey Dillon returns home to Seattle after popping off in the lockerrom about not getting enough carries. Say what? Corey, behind Eddie George, you have averaged more carries in the last three years than any other back. What's more, what are you talking about when you say that you "can't compete if the other guys are getting 30 carries a game, and you are only getting 14?" Can't compete? Dude, your team has something going for the first time in your tenure in the NFL. Your team is competing, and you can either be a part of that, or you can be a divisive presence in the lockerroom. If it's all about you competing in salarly, or for rushing titles, then the Seer is sure Mo Lewis will be happy to move you for primo picks in the offseason, cause your performance on the field is starting to slip, anyway. Herschell Walker, anyone?

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been slipping of late, too. They haven't covered at home the last two weeks, and they didn't cover on the road against the Packers the week before that. We like the Bengals to keep it going...

The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread

Lions @ Bears, Bears by 3

The Suck Bowl. These teams suck. But there are levels of suckitude, and the Bears have managed to suck less than the Lions. Given that Charles Rogers is still hurt, and given that Chris Chandler is the QB now in Chicago, we like the Bears to keep sucking less, and the Lions to keep sucking more.

The Seer Sees: Bears cover

Giants @ Vikings, Vikings by 7

Yeesh. Seven? Man. It's hard, watching a team every week and growing attached. The Seer Sees the Vikings winning this game, no question. But seven? Got a feeling about this one...

The Seer Sees: Giants beat the spread

Titans @ Jaguars, Titans by 4

The Seer doesn't understand this one at all. The Jags are very bad. The Titans are very good. The Jags have a rookie QB, and a black one at that! The Titans have a great QB, and a black one at that! Isn't it obvious what the result here is going to be? As a wannabe member of the Liberal Media, the Seer Sees this one as a lock...

The Seer Sees: Titans cover

Cowboys @ Buccaneers, Bucs by 6

Why didn't anyone tell us we have been misspelling Buccaneers all year long? My, how the Cowboys have arrived. We noted last week how they haven't played anybody, and while they still haven't played anybody, dispatching the Lions in such convincing fashion shows they haven't let a big early record go to their heads. The Bucs are all beat up, missing Brian Kelly, John Lynch, Mike Alstott and a few other key people. This just feels like one of those moments when the natural order starts to assert itself a little bit, and that natural order still sees the 'Boys as a year away, and the Bucs as a desperate bunch hungry for a win at home. Tough call, but...

The Seer Sees: Buccaneers cover

Panthers @ Saints, Saints by 1

Well, that Panthers bandwagon lightened up a bit, didn't it? This line is just as much a product of the Saints getting healthy on defense again, and the fact that they played the Panthers very tough the first time around. They can get back in the race with a win this week, and everything seems to be going their way. Which is exactly why...

The Seer Sees: Panthers beat the spread

49ers @ Cardinals, 49ers by 7

The 49ers seem to be back. There's no question they'll win. But will they cover?

The Seer Sees: 49ers cover

Jets @ Eagles, Eagles by 3

Ah, the return of the Saviour, Brad Pennington. The Jets have managed to tread water in his absence with a 2-4 record, after being left for dead at 0-4. And really, if you look at who they've played, and the scores of the games, it seems clear the Jets may not have been quite as bad as everyone thought they were. Philly, on the other hand, is just weird and confusing. These teams have played a lot of the same opponents, with confusing results. McNabb's thumb is still hurt, and given that the Jets have to be feeling better about themselves and their immediate future with their QB healed up...

The Seer Sees: Jets beat the spread

Texans @ Colts, Colts by 12

Yep. Texans have talent, especially now that Domanick Davis has taken over as the feature back. They are going to be dangerous next year. Hell, they're dangerous this year, as the Dolphins and lowly Jags can tell you. But the Colts is the Colts...

The Seer Sees: Colts cover

Bills @ Chiefs, Chiefs by 7

They are predicting rain in KC. That probably hurts the Bills more than the Chiefs, but it also probaby works to suppress scores. Still, KC at home, on a Sunday night, after yet another week of subpar offense? The Seer likes their chances to bust out. The Bills needed last week's win in a big way. The Chiefs are going to drop a game here soon, and it won't be this one, but the Seer sees this game like this: If it's rainy, the scores will be low. If it's not, Bledsoe will probably be able to keep the Bills close.

The Seer Sees: Bills beat the spread

Monday Night

Dolphins @ Chargers, Dolphins by 3.5

Junior Seau returns. The Dolphins don't run away from people on the scoreboard, and the Chargers have been better of late. Jay Fiedler hasn't been great, meaning that Marty Schottenheimer can focus the D on Ricky Williams. Plus, it's Monday Night, where great games just happen.

The Seer Sees: Chargers beat the spread

Tue, 21 Oct 2003 16:17:05 GMT

It's So Easy Being The Seer

No, stop it. Please, you're embarassing me. Aw, shucks. OK, I admit it. I'm really good at picking NFL games. The Seer now stands at an otherworldly 49-34 mark against the spread, good for a 59.0% winning percentage. I know, I know. "They" said it couldn't be done. "They" said I wouldn't stick with it.

"They" were all wrong. Yes, the Seer only won last night's Chiefs/Raiders game by a foot or so, but sometimes you have to be a little lucky in this business, too.

Lucky, like the Chiefs. Oh, there was much gnashing of teeth and flapping of jaws last week when the Seer dared to say the Vikings looked, to his eye, to be a better team than the Chiefs. But Chiefs fans surely can't be enthused about the way their anemic offense looked last night against a pathetic Raiders D. That makes two very tight finishes in a row, on the heels of two games where the offense had to be bailed out by the special teams.

Make no mistake, you take a win any way you can. Same with the Vikings, who, after burying the Broncos for three quarters Sunday, also softened up in the end to make the game more than a bit uncomfortable for their fans.

But this is all moot, isn't it? The Seer calls for a reapproachment between Viking and Chief fans. After all, they are the only undefeated teams in the league, and any objective observer would have to say that they are both very good, and have also been lucky when they've needed to be. Hey, you don't go undefeated in the NFL for any long stretch without luck, no matter how good you are.

Mon, 20 Oct 2003 17:04:32 GMT

Talent Glut

The Dallas Mavericks have traded for Antoine Walker from the Celtics. In total, they sent Raef LaFrentz, Jiri Welsch and Chris Mills to Boston for Walker and Tony Delk.

The Mavs now sport a lineup of Steve Nash, Michael Finley, Antawn Jamison, Antoine Walker and Dirk Nowitzki.

I think they're going to implode. Clearly, this is a move borne of a desire (desperation?) to keep up with the Lakers and the Wolves. It's not going to work. There is such a thing as too much talent in basketball. Actually, it's not so much an issue of too much talent; it's an issue of too many shooters. Finley's a fine all-around player, but this is a collection of guys who won't do the dirty work, and you need to do dirty work to survive in the NBA. Who defends? Who boards? Who doesn't immediately jack up a three on their first touch?

Dallas tried to just outgun everybody last year, and it failed miserably. This year, instead of changing a bankrupt philosophy (which they can't because they are tied to Dirk and Nash and Finley, and that's what they do), they instead tried to insert even more shooters.

Friend of Pipeline Mike B. likes to call Nelson a "gimmick coach", and I think he's right. This will be some gimmick. They'll win their share of games, and it was good to get a backup point for Nash in Delk, but this looks to me like a case of the Mavs helping the Celtics to unload one of their biggest problems.

Mon, 20 Oct 2003 16:11:43 GMT

The Seer Cannot Be Stopped!

Even the Seer didn't think it was going to be this easy, and yet, it really has been easy. A slick 9-4 performance yesterday puts the Seer at a high-water mark of 48-34, good for a heady 58.5% winning percentage against the spread.

The best part of all of this is that the proof is in the pudding, date-stamped and ready for scrutiny by the skeptics, not that there are any left.

We learned a few things yesterday. First, we learned that the Vikings' defense is a force to be reckoned with, providing big plays, a big pass rush, and a defensive stand when one was needed.

We learned that Denver's vaunted offensive line ain't all that.

We learned that the Cowboys are for real. Yeah, they still haven't played anybody, but their schedule's full of teams that aren't anybody. 5-1? The Seer sure didn't see that. And I know a certain Cowboys fan who didn't see it, either, but is surely enjoying the ride.

We learned that the Buccaneers are in trouble. Most of that trouble is injury-related, but it's trouble all the same. They have no running game at all now, and the defensive secondary is in a shambles, which removes some of the effectiveness of their pass rush.

We learned that the Giants' offense is in a real funk, and they might be running out of time to fix it.

We learned the Bengals aren't the doormats anymore.

And we learned that the ranks of the unbeaten are reduced to two: The Vikings and the Chiefs. The Chiefs defend their spotless record on the road against a desperate Oakland team tonight. I like the Chiefs to cover the four point margin and stay undefeated.

Circle your calendar, folks: December 20. That's the day the Chiefs come into the dome to play the Vikings. The Seer doesn't see either of these teams being undefeated by then, but it will still be one hell of a game.

Fri, 17 Oct 2003 16:24:39 GMT

Chicken Little

The only curse the Red Sox had to deal with last night was being cursed with an idiot for a manager. Grady Little stuck to his guns with his lineup, a move which proved to be fruitful once the Red Sox hitters came alive in Game 6. He stayed the course in Game 7, and why wouldn't he? He's got a great-hitting team, and there ain't a whole lot on the bench.

But staying with hitters isn't the same as staying with a fragile pitcher who already looks like he's got a sore arm, and who had thrown about 115 pitches last night. Pedro was done, plain and simple. He was throwing tailing fastballs that were tailing right over the heart of the plate. He might be able to get away with that when he's throwing 97 and has his other stuff working, but that wasn't the case last night. He was throwing in the low 90's, and though he was throwing his breaking ball a lot and for some strikes, it wasn't enough to keep guys off the fastball.

So Little has Alan Embree warmed up and ready to go, obviously for the lefty-lefty matchup with Hidecki Matsui. Embree is effective against both lefties and righties. Matsui was 2 for 5 off of Embree this season with a strikeout, meaning it was no sure thing that Embree would get Matsui out. Matsui, however, was 0 for 10 against Pedro. OK, so Grady lets Pedro pitch to Matsui. But this is faltering Pedro, tired Pedro, and Matsui had already seen him a couple times last night. I'd rather go with Embree in that situation, but 0 for 10 is 0 for 10. Little made the tough call.

Pedro gives up a hard shot down the line to Matsui. Little leaves a tiring Pedro in to face Jorge Posada, with runners on 2nd and 3rd, and the Yankees down by two with only one out. He chooses to pitch to Posada, rather than load them up. Posada is 9 for 47 in his career against Pedro, and 2 for 8 against Embree.

Why warm up Embree if you aren't going to bring him in at this point? Why look at those career numbers when you know good and well that most of those AB's were against a fresh and electric Pedro, and not the guy serving up fastball after fastball over the middle of the plate?In fairness, Posada's hit wasn't exactly a rocket. But it wasn't Posada's hit that sank the Sox. It was Matsui's hit, and Bernie Williams' hit before that. Williams is 2 for 14 in his career against Embree, and 12 for 60 against Pedro.

The lesson is the same. All of these Yankee hitters had poor lifetime records against Pedro, and not much better against Embree. Little needed to throw that out the window and look at the pitcher who was on the mound at that very moment. I saw a pitcher who was tired and was very hittable. Grady Little saw something else. Moments later, Red Sox nation saw the lead slip away, and that was all it took for a reprise of the superstitious talk of the Curse of the Bambino.

Thu, 16 Oct 2003 18:53:05 GMT

Daunte Culpepper Returns To Action Against The Broncos

The Seer Sees: Week 7 of the NFL

The Seer now stands at 39-30, good for a 56.5% winning percentage. Not only that, but the Seer is trending upward. One curious thing, though, about this exercise: It only works if the Seer picks all the games. While each week will present one or two games that are, in the view of the Seer, Locks, most games are really just an exercise in educated hunches. The Seer knows enough to know which team will beat or cover the spread about 55% of the time, but that's because the Seer is, above all else, a generalist. Ask the Seer, though, about any individual game, and you won't get anything resembling conviction about the choice of a winner. Does that make the Seer a fraud? Hard to say; if after Week 17 we're still touting a 56.5% success rate, we'll reevaluate this perhaps overly critical self-evaluation.

On to the picks...

Redskins @ Bills, Bills by 2.5

The Redskins have a ton of injuries to deal with this week, and they have stuggled to run the ball in recent weeks. But Buffalo is in a tailspin of their own, with a general failure on offense that will be even more pronounced if Eric Moulds can't play. Both of these teams are fading fast, and the loser of this game is in trouble in their division. Can the Bills be any worse after last week's loss to the Jets?

The Seer Sees: Bills cover

Eagles @ Giants, Giants by 3

Another game of mediocrity. McNabb is struggling, and so is the Giants' offense. The Seer thinks this one ends up close.

The Seer Sees: Eagles beat the spread

Cowboys @ Lions, Cowboys by 3

Are the 'Boys back in town? They sure seem to be, and we bet you'd have to go back a few years to find the last time they were favored by 3 on the road. But really, who has Dallas played? We know the Cardinals, Falcons and Jets all Capital "S" Suck. Wins over the Giants and Philly? Eh...decent wins, nothing to apologize for. On the other hand, get a load of Detroit's tough schedule: Denver, the Vikings, the Packers, the Niners. One of these teams is slightly better than their record, and one is not as good. Of course, the great news is that we get to watch these two teams play (not each other) on Thanksgiving. Great.

The Seer Sees: Lions beat the spread

Chargers @ Browns, Browns by 5.5

Well, the Browns sure have turned it around a bit, though you have to wonder about them, still. Yeah, beating Pittsburgh and the Raiders is nice, but it's not the feat it would have been, say, last year. The Chargers just can't get anything going, but they are coming off of a bye week and the Browns are thin on the offensive line. Schottenheimer's too good a coach to continue in this free fall. Besides, if Jamal Lewis can have a big day against the Browns on the ground, LaDainian Tomlinson can, too.

The Seer Sees: Chargers beat the spread

Ravens @ Bengals, Ravens by 3

The Bengals are starting to play a lot of teams tough. We like them at home to keep this game close.

The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread

Broncos @ Vikings, Vikings by 4

The game of the week, no question. For starters, Jake Plummer is out with a broken foot, which means the Vikings get to see Steve Beuerline. That change removes a large chunk of Denver's playbook, and the reduced QB mobility should help the Vikings' pass rush. Denver is a quality team, who could very easily be undefeated along with the Vikings, but for their loss to Dante Hall and the Chiefs. But this Vikings team is, in the estimation of the Seer, better than the Chiefs, who don't have the multiple downfield weapons that the Vikings feature. The Vikings' offensive line is also bigger than KC's. The real matchup to watch is Denver's talented receiving corps (Ashley Lelie, Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith) against the Vikings' no-name and no-nonsense secondary. This is the game they can make a name for themselves. It's a big spread, but the Vikings have the weapons (and the home field) to make it a reality.

The Seer Sees: Vikings cover

Titans @ Panthers, Panthers by 2

Ooh. Hot game. The Panthers are for real, though beating Indy probably removed any doubters from the pool. Does McNair's mobility neutralize Carolina's pass rush? The Seer thinks it will help, and when combined with a questionable Stephen Davis...

The Seer Sees: Titans cover

Saints @ Falcons, Saints by 2.5

People have been hard on the Saints, and for good reason. But when you look at their losses, they are to Seattle, Indy, Tennessee and Carolina. In other words, three teams we know are good, and one we think is good. The Falcons are making the very necessary switch at QB, giving Illinois alum Kurt Kittner his first NFL start. If Doug Johnson were going, this would be a no-brainer, but new QB's tend to spark things. Still, the Seer believes this Saints bunch isn't through yet, and has more overall talent. Famous last words, right?

The Seer Sees: The Saints cover

Patriots @ Dolphins, Dolphins by 6

Hey, now! That's a big line. Why? Well, Miami's defense is letting people score touchdowns. At all. They've allowed only four offensive TD's this year. The Patriots, on the other hand, are banged up, including Tom Brady, who just can't throw the ball downfield. The large line is a concern, because Miami could easily get a lead and just eat the clock up with Ricky Williams. Of course, if the Pats can't stop that, then it's not "eating clock" so much as it's "scoring a lot of points".

The Seer Sees: Dolphins cover

Packers @ Rams, Rams by 4.5

The first thing we need to know is that this game is in a Dome. Brett Favre is 11-19 in domes. The second thing we need to know is that Green Bay is 30th in the league in pass defense, and now must move forward without DE Joe Johnson. The third thing we need to know is that the Packers must still be reeling from last week's loss to the Chiefs. The only other thing we need to know is...

The Seer Sees: Rams cover

Jets @ Texans, Jets by 2.5

Yuck. Both teams have serious holes on defense due to injuries. The Jets have some momentum after last week's big win over the Bills, but the Texans are coming off a bye. Curtis Martin can't struggle forever, can he?

The Seer Sees: Texans beat the spread

Bears @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 10.5

Kordell Stewart is out, Chris Chandler is in. But he's immobile and playing in front of one of the worst O-lines in the league. Not only that, but Anthony Thomas might also be out. This could get ugly.

The Seer Sees: Seahawks cover

Buccaneers @ 49ers, Bucs by 3.5

Is it just us, or are the Bucs continually disrespected by the betting public? Of course, they are very thin in the secondary, and that will hurt them against the Niners. The Niners have three losses by one point. Maybe they aren't as bad as we thought? The Seer thinks the Bucs win this game, but...

The Seer Sees: Niners beat the spread

Monday Night

Chiefs @ Raiders, Chiefs by 4

Sorry, folks. This Chiefs team isn't as good as their record indicates, but the Raiders are moribund, and no rivalry can fix that.

The Seer Sees: Chiefs cover

Wed, 15 Oct 2003 18:30:02 GMT

Epilogue on "the fan"

Should this matter? There is a story in the Sun Times when indicates that the fan who went for the ball last night already had a game ball, thrown to him by Moises Alou earlier in the game! Yeah...that would matter to me if I was a Cubs fan. This guy already had a ball, and now he's going for another one?

Wed, 15 Oct 2003 16:35:27 GMT

Something Crazy Happened? Must Be The Postseason...

Is there some kind of law that says that every damn baseball game played in October has to have something crazy happen in it? Is FOX scripting these games? Truth is truly stranger than fiction, and last night's Cubs/Marlins game is a monumental testament to that fact.

We all know the backstory: The Cubs have a long history of futility and near-misses. They last played in the World Series in 1945, a series which they lost. The great Cub shortstop (and later first baseman) Ernie Banks hit over 500 home runs in the '50s and '60s, but never played in a post-season game. The 1969 Cubs tortured their fans (24 years removed from the post season even then) with an historic collapse that saw the Miracle Mets become fate's darlings instead of the Cubs. The 1984 Cubs were ahead of the Padres before Steve Garvey hit a home run off of Lee Smith to lead to a decisive fifth game. But why would the Cubs worry? They had Rick Sutcliffe on the mound, who had gone 16-1 after a mid-season deal to the Cubs that year. But then future St. Paul Saint Leon Durham booted a ball, and the Padres went on to get smashed by the dominant Detroit Tigers. 39 years since the last Series, and counting.

The Cubs made their way back into October ball in 1989 (loss to the Giants), and 1998 (lost to the Braves 3-0, I personally saw the Jim Riggleman blow out Wood's elbow on a cold October night in the final game of the series).

But 2003 was to be the year, 58 years after that lost trip to the Series. The Cubs had dominant pitching, Dusty Baker, and a lineup good enough to get the runs. What's more, after dispatching the hated Braves in the NLDS, the Cubs were going to get to feast on an underdog, the Florida Marlins. They came back to Wrigley yesterday with a 3-2 lead, and the best pitcher in the league on the mound in Mark Prior. Wrigley was amped. A huge crowd was forming on Waveland Avenue. Chicago was going to party like it hasn't partied since the Bulls and Bears were in their heyday.

But it was even beyond that. A persona was going to be changed. The Cubs were going to be loveable losers no more, and there would be no talk of collapses or curses or anything at all but the marvelous pitching of the Cubs and the long-suffering fans finally catching a glimpse of the joy they had seen other (perhaps even less-deserving) fans bask in.

Prior was cruising. The Cubs' 1-0 lead felt so much bigger than that. This was exactly how it was supposed to go. Just for giggles, the Cubs added two insurance runs, Wrigley went nuts, and I walked my dog in the cool October night. I knew it was safe to leave, you see, because the Marlins had brought Dontrelle Willis into the game. I love Willis, though he has struggled in the postseason. I left because that's the tell-tale move of post season desperation: to bring your star pitcher into the game in relief, when he would ordinarily never be pitching. It's like pulling the goalie in hockey--it almost never works, and the game is pretty much over at that point. After all, the Marlins would need a miracle to score three against Prior, the way he was cruising, and the Marlins were down to six outs now.

So, I walked my dog, I returned, I ambled down to the basement and wondered if the game was still on. I figured I might turn it on to see a wild Chicago lockerroom. After all, I had been gone about 45 minutes, and the way Prior was mowing them down...

I turned it on to see that the Marlins were leading 4-3. I then saw Mike Mordecai drive one into the gap to make the score 7-3, and eventually it was 8-3.

Naturally, I was stunned. How the hell had this happened? I heard the announcers talking about how the Marlins were an opportunistic bunch, and they took advantage of a big break. "Hmm," I thought to myself. "I wonder which Cub booted the ball. What a goat they are going to be."

And then, I saw what happened. Briefly, for those people who didn't see it: A fan reached over the railing and prevented Cubs LF Moises Alou from catching a foul ball that would have been out number 2 in the eighth inning. There was a runner on second, and the score was still 1-0 in favor of the Cubs. In other words...It was a pretty big non-out.

It shouldn't be possible for this much irony to exist. You wouldn't buy this story if somebody put it in a novel. You'd say, "No way. You can't write it that way. Nobody will believe it." In what kind of bizarro world does a Cub fan, a guy with a Cubs hat and headphones and great seats who has no question deemed this one of the great events of his life, to see the Cubs go to a series, personally help the Cubs achieve a new level of spooky cursedness? I mean, how raw is that? Cubs fans, those reservoirs of defeatism and false hope and cynicism, get within five outs of a trip to Heaven, only to see one of their own screw the team.

Now, it needs to be said, that poor guy didn't allow all eight runs to score. The Cubs walked guys, they booted balls, there were a lot of things that went wrong. It's not all on that one guy. But it's no coincidence at all that most of the bad things that happened to the Cubs happened after the foul ball out that wasn't. Prior walked Luis Castillo, the guy who got the fan-ordered reprieve. Think Prior wasn't rattled?

The fact is, a lot of the great events we remember in baseball history as deciding post season series' in fact didn't happen in the deciding games. Buckner's ground ball in '86? That was only in Game 6. The Red Sox could have come back and won Game 7, but of course they did not, and that probably had a little something to do with the shell shock leftover from Game 6. The Royals in 1985? Don Denkinger's blown call wasn't in Game 7, it was in Game 6. But once that call happened, the Cardinals were done. Kansas City rolled to an 11-0 win in Game 7.

You think the Cubs aren't thinking about that stuff? You think they've just put last night completely out of their heads?

I feel so bad for the fan. He just had a brain cramp, and he saw the ball, and he tried to catch the ball. That's it. But at the same time, you gotta be a little more savvy than that. I'd like to think most serious baseball fans would understand the situation, and give their own fielders a wide berth going for any ball. The worst part? The guy was listening to the game on headphones. He must have heard the radio call in real time with his own actions. Imagine the soundtrack the guy is hearing goes something like this:

Radio: "There's a foul ball. Alou is moving over. He's going to have a play, what a big out this would be...NO! I DON'T BELIEVE IT! Some idiot in a Cubs cap reached over and took the ball from Alou. You idiot! You idiot! The fans are pelting him with beer and menacing gestures. Oh, man. I wouldn't want to be that guy. He'll live with that the rest of his life!"

And imagine the poor fan, sitting there, drenched with beer (he was), and starting to get the very sinking feeling that not only have you potentially cost your team, but you might have a bit of a, um, security situation on your hands. And he sits there kicking himself, but he thinks, "Maybe it's no big deal. I'm sure Prior will get these last two outs, and the Cubs will keep the lead. Please get these last two outs, Mark Prior. Please, God, help the Cubs get out of this inning with no damage, because if they don't, I'm afraid that..."

Bam! Then the Marlins score not one, not two, but eight freaking runs.

I'm concerned about that guy's well-being, truly. But even if nobody ever lays a hand on him, he'll beat himself up, oh, for about, let's say...forever. Anybody who doubts that doesn't know what it's like to be a fan. Yeah, we know, it wasn't all his fault. It wasn't. But he won't feel that way, his family won't feel that way, his coworkers won't feel that way. I'm not saying it's right. I'm saying it's real.

The only way, and I mean the only way, that guy's life isn't altered in a very negative way, is if the Cubs come back and win tonight. In fact, it would help if they won the whole thing, because if they win tonight but lose in the World Series, there will be pitching rotation issues that could be a direct result of their loss last night. Again, not at all completely that guy's fault. But there would be a lot of people who still thought about that guy's role in it, and he surely would.

I've been rooting for the Marlins. I love that team. But how can you not like the Cubs? And I'd take either of those clubs over the increasingly loutish Red Sox and the always-hated Yankees. But rooting interests change fast, and now I have to admit that a part of me wants the Cubs to win tonight, just so that guy's life isn't ruined or endangered.

Either way, we have been provided with a substantial amount of new and interesting lore. Either the Cubs overcome this bizarre and in many ways tragicomic event to get to the World Series, thus making the achievement an even greater journey for the team and their fans, or they don't overcome it, and the Cubs fans' torture will now rival that of Red Sox fans in a very real and unique way.

Because you see, Boston fans can always curse Buckner, they can curse Dent, they can even curse Babe Ruth's curse, but they have never had reason to curse themselves, as Cubs fans now do.

Tue, 14 Oct 2003 15:29:36 GMT

Another Lesson Learned

The Rams were favored by 12 over the Falcons for a damn good reason. Why did I think Atlanta would cover that? I had seen Doug Johnson and the Falcons' excreble secondary against the Vikings two weeks ago, and they were beyond awful. Dan Reeves' team is in full meltdown, and I doubt that even Michael Vick will save their season (though he sure could have saved last night's MNF broadcast).

I hadn't had a chance to watch much of Marc Bulger or Lamar Gordon. Bulger's the real deal; that guy's got a live arm and the quickest release I've seen in a long time. It's like he's one of those football throwing machines they use in practice. And Gordon looked suspiciously like a young Marshall Faulk. Duly noted by the Seer, who is now 39-30, good for 56.5%. Baby steps.

Mon, 13 Oct 2003 22:16:26 GMT

No Sentimental Pick

People stop me on the street and ask: "What do you think about what happened in that Yankees/Red Sox game on Saturday?" Actually, people are starting to call it the Zimmer Game, though the "Karim Garcia" game might be more appropriate, given how many bizarre events he was involved in.

I'll tell you what I think: It's pretty damn hard to make the Yankees appear to be sympathetic choices, but Boston (well, two Boston players, really) have almost managed that.

First, Pedro. Even back when Pedro was a Montreal Expo, it was well-known that he would put a fastball in your teeth just for the hell of it. Look, I don't have a problem with pitching inside; it doesn't happen nearly enough these days. If I was a pitcher, I'd bust guys inside all damn day long. Anybody who plays whiffleball with me knows I bring the high hard one. But there's establishing the inside of the plate, and there's headhunting. There's rearing back and hitting a guy in his thigh or ribs, and there's throwing as hard as you can at his head, which is what Pedro did Saturday to Karim Garcia, and to a great many batters before him.

What's more, Pedro's beanings follow a distinct pattern, usually when he doesn't have his best stuff and he's been getting knocked around. So he gets pissed and throws at some guy's head. Hey, Pedro's not the only one, and the other guy on the mound Saturday, Roger Clemens, is certainly guilty of many of the same things. But what Pedro did is wrong. It's just wrong. Guys get hurt or killed that way, end of story. You can establish inside using pain in the ribs; no need for head trauma.

But then Pedro went a step further, and that's why I place total culpability on him (and Manny, but more on him in a moment). It's one thing to hit a guy up high. After all, maybe it was an accident. Nobody's going to buy that, but pitches slip sometimes. But you don't ever then point to the dugout and start telling guys that you are going to hit them in the head. You don't do that, and Pedro wouldn't dare do that if he ever had to put a bat in his hands. What kind of person threatens, actually taunts and brags, about hitting someone in the head with a 95 mph fastball? I think Pedro's one of the greatest pitchers of my lifetime, and I love to watch him pitch. But I can no longer consider myself a fan of his after his taunting of the Yankees. And it tells you everything you need to know about Pedro when his own teammates won't come to his defense in this matter.

Then, Roger Clemens threw a high pitch to Manny Ramirez, who acted as if it was a mere inches from his head. It wasn't. It wasn't even close. Listen, Manny, when your manager won't even back you in the postgame press conference, saying he didn't think the pitch was that close, you know you're in the wrong. I've seen Ramirez do this a few times against the Twins. He'll lean out over the plate and act like it's batting practice, and then a pitch will come in belt high and about an inch off the plate, and all of a sudden he's gesticulating to the mound, pointing with his bat, going nuts because a pitcher had the audacity to try to throw something over the inside corner. And this, after he stood and watched his HR in game 5 against Oakland for a full 15 seconds before moving on to first base. I have no time for Manny Ramirez. He may be a hitting savant, but he's a churlish prima donna who is going to find out for real one of these days what an actual message pitch looks and feels like.

Finally, Don Zimmer. Watching Pedro throw him to the ground, in the manner he did, was hard to watch. Is that all because of Zimmer's age? I'm not sure, really. I have heard that Pedro saw Zimmer yelling at him, then pointed to Zim and asked if "he wanted a piece of him", but I haven't seen that for myself. If that's true, and Zimmer's charge was even a bit provoked by a lowlife like Pedro, then I have even more sympathy for Zimmer than I do now. Yeah, I have sympathy for him. The guy's got a metal plate in his head as a result of one of the worst beanings in baseball history. You don't think he gets a little charged up after seeing Pedro go after Karim Garcia's head? Hell, why not go after him, Zim? The Yankees were too afraid of getting someone thrown out, and thus didn't take the proper action to dispense of Pedro, but Zim wasn't gonna hold back. I applaud him for that. I'm hearing a lot of people say Zim's too old and should retire, and I agree with all of that, but not because he got manhandled by Pedro. Lots of guys get their ass kicked in a fight on a baseball field. Did we demand Robin Ventura retire after Nolan Ryan's beatdown on him? No. Zimmer's just a guy who got worked in a fight, but at least he knew that this was something worth fighting for. Yeah, it was ulgy watching him start something he couldn't finish, and yeah, something really bad could have happened to him, but frankly I think he's catching a lot more flak and ridicule than he deserves.

He appeared stunned when he hit the ground. I wonder if he was stunned that he was the only one taking a stand against a guy who just tried to take a guy's head off, and was taunting the entire dugout that he was going to throw at their heads, too. Maybe you are too old, Zim. The era you played in would have known how to deal with that nonsense. These days all they want to do is stand on the field and talk tough like Manny and Pedro, and not have to get ejected and disciplined by Bob Watson.

I have to think that the ridicule Zim's receiving is because he's an old man who picked a fight he couldn't win. I'll bet if it was an Able-bodied Yankee, the talk would have rightly been about Pedro's no-class taunting about hitting guys in the head with a fastball. I didn't realize it until I thought about it today, but I have more respect for Don Zimmer as a result of his actions Saturday.

Mon, 13 Oct 2003 19:10:10 GMT

Renovated Lambeau Field On A Gorgeous October Sunday

Not Just Any Given Sunday

I had been looking forward to this Green Bay trip for weeks, both for the opportunity to see an NFL game in a place like Lambeau Field, and for the chance to spend some time with several friends. The weekend was a success in all respects. I didn't see an NFL record, but I sure saw one hell of a game.

For starters, Friends of Pipeline Brent S. and Brad T. piled into my Golf and hit the road on an overcast but warm October day. The leaves were in high color all across central Wisconsin, and it was a beautiful drive. Along the way we saw deer, turkeys, hawks and dairy farms. We rolled into Green Bay to meet up with Friend of Pipeline Grant K., who was to be our host for the weekend. Grant grew up in Green Bay, and so he's the Real McCoy when it comes to Packer Love. He's proud of the city, the team and the tradition, and was eager to have a few Chiefs and Vikings fans come and see what that world is all about. He showed it off well.

We spend Saturday seeing a few of the nightspots around town. In general, I expected more of a crazed, college-like atmosphere, but I found Green Bay to be pretty laid-back. No question, the game was the event of the weekend, but people were just reveling in the great fall weather as much as anything. After steaks, drinks, pool, foosball and wistful discussions about whether the brunette or redhead bartender was cuter, we retired for the evening and rested up for the big day to come.

By gametime, we were six: Me, Brent, Brad, Grant, and Friends of Pipeline Ian P., and Craig A. The only real drawback to the weekend was that our six seats were split up in three pairs around the stadium, and so we weren't all able to watch the game together, which would have been a blast considering that Brad and Brent had Chiefs jersies on, and Craig and Grant are True Believers in the Packers. But such is life...

Lambeau Field is a national treasure. There's no other way to say it. I never saw it before the renovation, and I know that there are many Packer faithful who, despite recognizing the need for the upgrade, still pine for the old-style charm of the corrugated metal outside of the old version. New Lambeau, however, is done just the right way. There are the modern amenities, wide concourses, an atrium to allow the many older Packer fans a respite from harsh temperatures and winds, restaurants, pro shops, all that. But once inside the bowl of the stadium, very few changes were made. There isn't a bad seat in the house. It just doesn't exist. There are no obstructed-view seats. It has an intimate feel to it; you couldn't have convinced me that there were 70,000 people there, but there were.

The Green Bay fans are, as a rule, very informed football fans. Hell, a lot of them have seen more games in person than I've probably seen on TV in my life. And I found them to be, on balance, fairly objective about their team. And the Packers merchandise! I've never seen so much gear in my life. I seriously wondered if every single person didn't receive a gift of Packers gear for all birthdays and seasonal holidays. It was just unreal. If I saw 100 people all day long without some Packers gear on, I'd be shocked.

After soaking up as much atmosphere (and a foot-long brat) as I could, I settled in to watch the game. I watched the game from two different vantage points-one behind an end zone which gave great views of the play formations, and the other in the first row right behind the Chiefs bench. The latter seats didn't afford much chance to see the action on the field, but the opportunity to see the players and coaches work at such close range was a real and rare treat.

There were two stories leading into the game: The Chiefs were 5-0, and Dante Hall had returned kicks for TD's in four straight games. The Hall story dominated the attention of the crowd before and during the game, and for good reason. Hall is a visceral player, much like Randy Moss, and that's what every crowd pays to see. There are so many good, fast players all over the field in any given NFL game. The player who can make all those other players miss, who can rise above the schemes and formations and actually do something special is rare. Dante Hall is such a player, and you could sense that every time the ball went his direction. He very nearly broke a punt return for a TD in the second quarter, with only a fine play by Packers punter Josh Bidwell keeping Hall from another amazing return. Hall had a decent game, but on this day the Chiefs were going to have to look elsewhere for a win. Oh, and don't buy for a second that Hall is 5'9". He's 5'7", tops. I know, because this is how close I was to him...

Dante Hall on the bike-Hey, even the hottest kick returner in the league has to stay warm...

The game started poorly for the Chiefs, as they punted after two very short possessions, while the Packers marched down the field twice for a 14-0 lead. Did you know that the Packers had won 56 straight home games when they had a double-digit lead? Think about that. Turns out they had two different double-digit leads yesterday; ordinarily that would be lights-out for a visiting team. But yesterday's game was anything but ordinary.

The Chiefs finally broke through on a touchdown pass from Trent Green to Tony Gonzalez, one of the great tight ends in football. Gonzalez was able to get behind his man, (and as you can see below, there was no safety help) and Green lofted the ball perfectly over his shoulder, a play that would be reprised in a huge KC drive later in the game.

Tony Gonzalez hauls one in to put the Chiefs on the board...

The Chiefs went on to tie the game at 14, but then the Pack steadily pulled away, until it was finally 31-14 going into the fourth quarter. It looked bleak for the team in red and the 5,000 or so of their vocal partisans in the crowd. The Packer faithful were in full throat, and their favorite son Brett Favre (and HB Ahman Green) were having great days.

With 7 minutes to go in the game, the Packers were driving and the Chiefs were down 31-21. The Chiefs needed something to happen.

And then, something happened.

Brett Favre threw a laser to Donald Driver on an out pattern. Maybe the ball was thrown too hard; maybe it was off target; maybe Driver just didn't make the catch. I couldn't tell from my vantage point what, exactly, happened, until I saw Chiefs DB Jerome Woods streaking down the sideline with the ball, all the way to the end zone.

Voila! It was 31-28, and this was a game. It became a contest of field goals and sustained drives for the rest of regulation, and the Chiefs rode Trent Green's short passing game (and the lack of a pass rush by the Packers) to set up a 31 yard FG by Morten Andersen to tie the game virtually as the clock expired.

The Packer faithful were a bit stunned, but at no loss for words or exhortations for their team. The OT started with KC winning the coin flip, and I dared to voice my desire: That seeing Dante Hall run back the OT kickoff to win the game would be the Greatest Thing I Ever Saw. Well, it didn't happen. But what did happen was really bizarre, anyway.

The Chiefs had neglected stud running back Priest Holmes nearly all game, because they were so far down for so much of the game. At one point in the fourth quarter, Holmes had 33 yards on 11 carries, and was no factor. The Chiefs, however, had started to work Holmes in at the end of the fourth quarter, but with the run and with short passes.

Then the Chiefs came out for their first drive of OT, starting on their own 29. What they did was remarkable, and was the beginning of an amazing end to a great game. They ran Priest Holmes nine consecutive times, moving from their own 29 to Green Bay's 31. You could see the Packer defense wearing down under the punishing KC line and the dedication to just keep hammering away with a relatively fresh Holmes in OT. Plus (and this is important later on), the Packers were missing DE Joe Johnson and CB Mike McKenzie due to injuries. T

he Packer fans got real quiet as KC pounded their way to a 3rd and 3, already within range of a 48 yard field goal for Morten Andersen. Andersen is perhaps the best kicker in NFL history, and in his younger days had as much kicking range as anyone around. You could almost call 50 yards routine for him. But these days, a 48 yard kick, while makeable, would be far from a sure thing, and a miss would leave the Packers great field position to go the other way, with only a FG necessary to win the game.

The Chiefs wanted, first and foremost, to get a first down. Would they choose to run Holmes for a 10th consecutive time? He was surely getting tired, but the Green Bay defense hadn't yet shown they could stop him. The Chiefs opted instead for a pass out in the flat, to Dante Hall. Trent Green took the snap, dropped back under pressure, and floated a ball to the receiver he was locked in on the whole play, only to see Packers safety Darren Sharper swoop in with nothing but green field in front of him to seal the win with an interception...But the ball hit Sharper in both hands, then hit the ground. That was the moment the Packers needed, and by all rights should have been the end of the game. But what Jerome Woods could do with his hands, Darren Sharper could not, and the Chiefs lived to attempt Morten Andersen's 48 yarder.

The crowd hushed. They knew Andersen's history. They knew they were in trouble. How could they lose this game? How could they lose not just one, but two double-digit leads after winning 56 straight at home when they had that big lead? The snap came, and then the crowd erupted in jubilation: the Packers' Cletidus Hunt blocked Andersen's kick, and though it looked good off of Morten's foot, Hunt's game-saving play made sure it never had a chance.

OK. Think about that sequence for a moment. Chiefs kick FG to tie game at end of regulation. Next play: Packers have chance for one more kick return to end it, but it goes nowhere and the clock turns to OT. Next Play: Kickoff to Dante Hall. Breaths are held, but Dante can't break it. Next nine plays: Priest Holmes punishes the Packers to quiet the crowd and get the Chiefs to FG range. Next play: Trent Green nearly throws the ball to Darren Sharper, who just can't grab the gift interception to end the game. Next play: Andersen's FG is blocked. 65,000 people exhale and are ecstatic; 5,000 people are dumbfounded and are terrified that Brett Favre is going to get the football in OT.

But it never happened. Next play: Favre hands off to Ahman Green, who adds to his 120 yards with a quick burst up the sideline, with room to run and perhaps 35 yards needed to get into FG range to win the game. But Jerome Woods appears again, and his hit from behind forces Green to cough up the ball, and the Chiefs recover the ball. Favre never got his chance. The crowd went from silent to ecstatic to Dead Silent after Green's fumble.

Next play: Trent Green sees wideout Eddie Kennison (who had done nothing so far in the game) is covered by Packers backup Bhawoh Jue, who's playing only because of Mike McKenzie's back spasms. Green hits Kennison in stride, and he takes it to the house. The Chiefs storm the field. The crowd is stunned. The game is over, a 40-34 Chiefs win. The Packers hadn't given up 40 points at home in over 20 years, but on this day, the day I sat in the sun and basked in all that is Lambeau Field, they did.

Brad, Brent and I said our goodbyes to Ian, Craig and Grant after the game, and we headed back to the Twin Cities. It was one hell of a game, and one hell of an experience. We all agreed that the Packers and their fans have something special. It's hard to accept that sometimes, living in the Cities, because you meet a lot of Packers fans (and Vikings fans, too) who get so caught up in the "border war" aspect of the whole Minnesota/Wisonsin rivalry. But there's no way any fan of any team could sit in a place like Lambeau, bask in their history and the small-town connection with the big team, and not seriously be impressed and even a bit envious of what they have there.

It will be tough when Favre retires, and the team will have some down years, but the shrine and the Passion will always be there for that town, and that's a great thing.

Many thanks to Grant for making the weekend possible. It was a great way to catch up with friends, and it was a reminder to me why the NFL is such a great league to follow.

Epilogue: As we rode home in the car, we listened to the Packers post-game shows. They were generally upbeat, so much so in fact that you wouldn't ever know that they had lost. But things turned quite negative on the broadcast after Packers backup CB Bhawoh Jue was interviewed. Jue had been burned on the winning TD by Eddie Kennison, and also had the coverage on a critical 67 yard Tony Gonzalez gain in the fourth quarter. I thought Jue was pretty up front about the fact that he simply got beat by Kennison. Hey, it happens to the best, right. Unfortunately, Jue also went the ill-advised route of choosing to say that the Packers had plenty of chances at other points in the game, and so it wasn't really all his fault. (And hey, Ahman Green did fumble it away...)

Well, when the radio hosts heard Jue's claim about the other parts of the game not being his fault, they opened up on him after the interview was over. They referenced the Budweiser commercial running now, where the star player who fumbled three times claims a loss is not his fault. (It goes kind of like this: "Hey, somebody on my team could have fallen on those balls, couldn't they? I can't do everything.") One of the hosts then said: "No, Bhawoh, those six touchdowns you gave up didn't lose the game at all," and then called what Jue said "a steaming pantload."

Sheesh. Guess it's easier to hang a loss on that guy than it is your stud halfback. So, Brent and I drop Brad off at home, and we finish up the evening with a game of Madden on the PS2. We're playing a game where we are both on the same team that I have created, and at one point we complete a fantastic pass that just roasts the cornerback on the other team. We zoom in on the instant replay to see the catch up close, and to see which corner we just burned.

And there he was again: Bhawoh Jue. It just wasn' his day...

Parting Shot-The Bradley Center isn't the only place in Wisonsin to see the lifeless Bucks...

Fri, 10 Oct 2003 18:51:44 GMT

Passion and Connection

As I mentioned earlier this week, I will attending the Packers/Chiefs game at Lambeau Field this weekend. I am lucky to have a friend with access to the tickets, and given the group of people who will be attending, it promises to be one hell of a time. I have to be careful not to talk it up too much, because Jane is staying home with the kids this weekend, and, well, you know how that goes. Let's just say I owe Jane big, and she is already making plans with her friend Marsha for a full day of spa treatments, beefy masseurs, broadway-style shows, and drinks. Hell, even after that, I'll still owe her big.

But the truth is, no matter how hard I try, I can't hide my excitement about the trip. A large part of that is just the experience of being in a place like Green Bay for a Packer game. As a sports fan, there are just some things that endure and have a meaning which transcends the game itself. The Knicks at Madison Square Garden; Yankee Stadium during the post-season; a great Final Four. You can tell when a moment or place is special when the players themselves talk about it, and players frequently comment on what a special feeling it is to play at a place like Lambeau. Look, I'm pretty much a Vikings fan these days, and I grew up a Chiefs fan, so that tells you plenty about my rooting interests this Sunday. But I'm also someone who is a True Believer in the greatness of Brett Favre, and I fully understand that what I'll be seeing this weekend is about more than the game, or even Brett Favre.

What I'll be seeing is Passion. Seeing Passion is a rare thing. Green Bay fans have Passion for their history and team. In part, probably because of their great and historic past, and in part probably because there may not be a lot of other things for them to put their Passion into on Fall Sundays. (And also, in no small measure, because the people actually own the team, as my Packer fan friends Grant and Nate are fond of reminding me...)

I write about sports a lot. Sometimes I feel guilty about it, the whole "It's just sports" attitude. It's not like the Timberwolves are going to cure cancer, you know? But if sports are so damn unimportant, why are there so many people whose collective memories are connected through sporting events or rooting interests in teams? Are sports not "real"? What is "real"? The election? Don't tell a Gore voter from 2000. The media? Please. Your 401k? Not after Enron.

Hunger is real. Cold weather is real. Love is real. Passion is real. Does it matter so much what the Passion is for?

Maybe it's all just a game, but if I follow the game, and you follow the game, then suddenly it's about more than the game. It's about a connection we share. That connection could be about anything, really, but how are you and I going to know that we share an affinity for, say, whittling if we don't somehow connect about something else first? For many people, arguably too many people, that chance for connection comes from sports. Maybe the sports is all we'll ever have in common, and sometimes that's enough, but sooner or later we'll get to know enough about each other to branch out into the other "real" parts of our lives.

These guys I'm going to see the Packer game with? Some I've known for years, some I've only met recently through fantasy basketball. And yet, through events like this, I'm getting to know them in other ways, too. We're connecting. Maybe we should have found other ways to connect, and in some cases we did, but I'm a believer that you take your connections however you can get them. Whatever brings you closer together is a good thing.

I write about sports because I think it's real, as real as just about anything else that takes place outside the walls of my house. And even if the games themselves aren't as "real" as some of the higher-minded among us would like them to be, the connections they foster certainly are. And that's really why I'm so fired up about this weekend: I get to spend 36 or so hours with some people I really enjoy spending time with. That it's in one of the legendarily fun football enviornments in the country is great, but I'd be just as excited if we were going for a day of spa treatments, beefy masseurs, broadway-style shows and drinks.

Now, as for the game itself, I will make a prediction: I will witness an NFL record this weekend. I say this because I'm lucky that way: I have only attended two NFL games in my life, but I have witnessed three NFL records in those two games. I saw the Chiefs play the Chargers in the mid-80s, and two records were set in that game. One, we knew would be set: Lionel "Little Train" James set the all-purpose yardage mark in a season with a punt return in that game. I'm pretty sure that record has since been broken by someone like Brian Mitchell, but I can't really confirm that. The second record that day was the big one: Stephone Paige set the all-time NFL record for receiving yards in a game, with 308. That's a ton o' yards, folks. He caught like 8 passes for 308 (maybe 302?), and had four touchdowns. I mean, he was just catching bombs all day long. That record has since been broken by Willie "Flipper" Anderson of the Rams, and maybe someone has even broken it since then. But that's a pretty significant record to see broken, and it made for one hell of a fun game.

The statistical oddity of that game was that the Chiefs started Bill Kenney at QB, and he threw for over 250 yards before he got hurt. So, in came Todd Blackledge, who smartly kept throwing the ball to Paige, and Blackledge also piled up over 250 yards passing. That may have been a record, to have two QB's throw for over 250 yards for the same team in one game, but I'm not sure. It was one hell of a shootout, though, and I don't even remember which team won.

The other record was more pedestrian, as the Chiefs and James Wilder-era Buccaneers combined for 104 passes each. The irony is that it was a rather low-scoring affair. I'm sure they set a record for incomplete passes, too, now that I think about it.

So, with that backdrop, and a guy like Dante Hall ready to extend his record for consecutive games with a return TD on any given kickoff or punt, I like my chances to see an NFL record this weekend.

Have a great weekend, everybody, and drive safe if you're on the road.

Thu, 09 Oct 2003 18:55:24 GMT

The Seer Sees: Week 6 of the NFL

Hey, howdy hey, as Sheriff Woody would say. But has Sheriff Woody ever fashioned a tidy 55.6% winning percentage on his NFL picks against the spread? If he had, instead of playing second banana to Buzz Lightyear, he'd be hitting all the parties with a babe on each arm (Barbie and Raggedy Ann, most likely). That's how it is when you're a player in the heady world of NFL prognostication. Check this little tidbit from Ralph Wiley's recent column on Rush Limbaugh, (a good read) taken from his discussion of Rush's talents as a prognosticator:

The first week, right out of the box, to prove himself, and establish his presence with authority, Rush picked a road dog (that's prognosticator-speak for road underdog-The Seer), the Patriots to beat the Bills in Buffalo. The Bills won 31-0. The next week, Rush picked the Patriots to beat the Eagles in Philly. This time, New England won. So far, Rush is batting .500, (the pro analyst will bat .550 -- .750 in crunch-time -- and there's the difference)...

Well, OK: So the Seer has only been above that "pro analyst" benchmark of .550 for a week now, and yes, batting .750 during the playoffs will be a chore, but dammit, this is the closest we can get to good press from the mainstream liberal media!

But let's move on, remembering of course that the goal is still the hallowed mark of 58%. Hallowed for reasons that aren't clear to the Seer, when in reality 55% would float just about anybody's boat. But we don't play it that way here at the Pipe. When those other chumps only give you 55% success, we want to give you 58. It's a part of our credo, our mission statement, our raison d'etre: To Be 3% Better Than Those Other Chumps.

Speaking of our good friends, the French, I'd like to share a little anecdote with you about my son Linus. I'm teaching him about football with the aid of the PlayStation2 and John Madden's digitized persona. It's really quite the educational tool. He knows about linebackers, first downs (shaky, at best, but he knows the term), he knows to say "Down, set, HIKE!" before anything can happen. Football is a complicated game, really. It ain't soccer or baseball, you know?

Anyway, I always ask him what team he wants to be. Typically, he's the Vikings, but he has shown a disturbing tendency of late to cry out that he wants to be the Dragons. He does this forcefully. "The Dragons?", I say. "There isn't a team called the Dragons." Oh, but there is. Madden has the NFL Europe teams, which means we have the Barcelona Dragons available to us. I must have the only kid in the U.S. who wants to be an NFL Europe team.

On with the picks!

Giants @ Patriots, Patriots by 3

We'll just admit this--The Seer frequently confuses the Giants, Bills and Patriots for the same team. It's sort of like the Kevin Bacon Phenomenon, only with Bill Parcells, Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy and the team colors. (In fact, Parcells and Bacon are linked, and this site will tell you how!) Parcells coached the Giants. Then he coached the Patriots. Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy played for the Patriots. Now they play for the Bills. Bill Belichick used to be a coach for Parcells with the Giants, now he coaches the Patriots. The Giants and Bills met in a Super Bowl. All three teams use the Red, White and Blue color motif, and for good measure, all three teams are from the same region. And don't even get me started on Antowain Smith. It's not that the Seer can't keep them straight, because he can. It's just that sometimes he has to sit down and do a flow chart or consult a color wheel or tarot cards, or read Parcell's biography to keep it all straight.

And when they play each other (which happens at least twice a year), it gets even worse. But, after the proper consultations, we have clarified exactly who is playing who. New England is still missing some key people on defense, but they hung a big 38 points on a good Tennessee defense last week, and Bill Belichick is still a master schemer. The Seer has a feeling this is going to be a close game, though.

The Seer Sees: The Giants beat the spread

Buccanneers @ Redskins, Redskins by 3

No way. No fuckin' way. Look, the Seer knows the Bucs looked bad that last three minutes, and we know they just played a rough Monday game and have a short practice week, and we know they just lost Mike Alstott. This Bucs team is vulnerable, and now the injuries are starting to pile up. But this spread just ain't right. We're going with the "cornered animal" theory here.

The Seer Sees: Buccaneers beat the spread

Raiders @ Browns, Browns by 2.5

Oh, the indignity. But that's what having an average team age of 54 and coming off a loss to the Bears will do for your lines. The Seer sees no reason to invest in Raiders stock these days. The Browns, on the other hand, have a few things working in their favor. The first is that they have properly recognized which quarterback they should be playing. The second is that this was a young playoff team last year, as opposed to an old one like the Raiders. The third is that the linebacking corps is gellin' (like a felon).

The Seer Sees: Browns cover

Panthers @ Colts, Colts by 5.5

Hot game, maybe even the game of the week. You'd have to be a drunk placekicker to not think Peyton Manning is the real deal right now. The great ones need games and moments that live on in story and legend, and Manning and the Colts (and the Bucs and the refs) gave ESPN Classic a solid three hours of new programming last Monday night. But last the Seer checked, the Panthers were undefeated, featured a nasty defense very similar to the Bucs D that shut Manning and Co. down for 3.5 quarters on Monday, and have a great runner in Stephen Davis. The Seer thinks this will be a great game that the Colts will win, but don't the Panthers deserve more respect than being 5.5 point dogs, especially with the Colts coming off a short week?

The Seer Sees: The Panthers beat the spread

Chiefs @ Packers, Packers by 2

The Seer will be personally attending this game (thanks to Friend of Pipeline Grant K.), and the Seer is pretty damn happy about it. The Packers have regained their winning form, and while the Chiefs are undefeated and feature the Greatest Kick Returner On Earth, their offense has been struggling badly. Despite childhood loyalties to the team from K.C., the Seer recognizes that they have been fortunate to win their last two games. Besides, can you imagine the peril the Seer might encounter if the locals were to find out that he picked the Chiefs? Although, the Seer will be with at least one yokel proudly wearing a Chiefs jersey, so it could be worse. This one's for you, Nate...

The Seer Sees: The Packers cover

Texans @ Titans, Titans by 10

Ah, the Bud Adams Revenge Bowl. For those that recall, the Titans were the Oilers. As it usually happens, the Oilers/Titans skipped Houston right before they got good, which you know was a dagger, a dagger!, in the hearts of Houston football fans everywhere. But while wins over the Cowboys (last year), Dolphins and Jags have been a bit of a salve on the open wounds of former Oiler fans, those wounds will be reopened at the hands of Steve McNair, the QB they should have been able to root for all this time. The Texans aren't terrible, but the Titans are coming off a loss and can't afford to Mess With Texas.

The Seer Sees: Titans cover

Dolphins @ Jaguars, Dolphins by 4

Byron Leftwhich gets his first start for the Jags, and the Mark Brunell Era is officially over in north Florida. Ah, the memories. Brunell, in his day, was a running, gunning fantasy machine who praised the Lord at every opportunity. Hopefully he's not delivering a preachy sermon to Leftwich each time he relays a play in on the helmet headset. Allow us to digress for a moment here, and wonder why all the players don't get to have headsets in their helmets. What would that hurt, really? They don't all have to hear plays being relayed in; they could listen to the announcers on TV, or they could listen to Outkast, or perhaps the McNeil-Lehrer Report.

In any event, this is an admission by the Jags that they are Starting Over, and we'll just have to see if Leftwich can stay healthy and be effective. The Dolphins have been playing very well, and the Seer expects that to continue.

The Seer Sees: Dolphins cover

Bears @ Saints, Saints by 5

Ugh. Has anyone else noticed that there have been a lot of bear maulings in the news lately? Well, maybe not maulings. But David Letterman had that bear problem in his Montana cabin, and a woman was mauled by a bear in Minnesota a few weeks ago, and of course that thing happened to the Raiders last week. Roy was mauled, and even though a tiger was doing the actual mauling, the Seer has it on good authority (Dick Cheney) that a bear was involved in the planning of that mauling, even though Czech authorities cannot confirm that account. (Speaking of the linked story above, I know it's a horrible thing and all, but what did this guy think, that Kodiak Island was his own personal petting zoo? Why can't people accept the majesty and beauty of dangerous animals without trying to prove they are some kind of Bear Whisperer? I know it's not right, but when I read about the bear actually sitting on the guy's remains, I just had this image of the bear, somewhere in his bear mind thinking, "Who did this guy think he was dealing with? This is OUR forest. Those 'Beware of Bear' signs apply to everybody, even you, bub.")

Unfortunately, I can't find any recent record of saint maulings.

Yippee. The Bears won a game last week. They still suck. The Saints suck, too, but they have much, much more talent. Didn't we just say last week we were done with picking the Saints? We didn't see the Bears on the schedule...

The Seer Sees: Saints cover

Eagles @ Dallas, pick 'em

Pick 'em? OK.

The Seer Sees: Eagles win, liberal media can't decide which black QB to nominate for Hall of Fame, decides to denounce both white coaches.

Bills @ Jets, Bills by 3

Well, that Buffalo hype has sure died down a bit, hasn't it? The Seer thinks this is a tough game, because the Bills will probably be without Eric Moulds. The Jets aren't awful, they just aren't good. I'm not yet sold on Buffalo being a team that can just walk in and dominate. The Jets are starting to see a bit of light at the end of the injury tunnel, with Chad Pennington practicing lightly. Since they are home, since they have to win sometime, and since the Bills haven't exactly been blowing people away...

The Seer Sees: Jets beat the spread

Steelers @ Broncos, Broncos by 6.5

What happened to the Steelers last week against the Browns? They can't run the ball, for one thing, an alarming development for a team that has featured such a blue-collar identity for so long. But now there is word that Jake Plummer is doubtful for the game. Beuerline is pretty good, though. This is a big spread, but...

The Seer Sees: Broncos cover

Ravens @ Cardinals, Ravens by 5.5

Well, Emmitt Smith is out for a long time, and perhaps forever, with a broken shoulder blade, an injury that the Seer can't remember happening before, and one which sounds damn painful. That's a really big spread for a road team that doesn't score many points, but we would expect Baltimore to just run like crazy, and we don't think the Cardinals can stop them.

The Seer Sees: Ravens cover

49ers @ Seahawks, Seahawks by 3.5

No clue. It's OK to admit that, right? Seattle got whacked last week by the Packers, while the 49ers were happy simply to not have a meltdown on the sidelines. Still, the 49ers have been bad on the road this year, and this Seattle team is real enough to bounce back and cover this spread.

The Seer Sees: Seahawks cover

Monday Night

Falcons @ Rams, Rams by 12

This is the problem with doing the schedules so far in advance, not that it can be avoided. This would have been a blast if Vick were healthy, but instead we get a delusional Doug Johnson, who spent his postgame conference last week talking about what a shame it was for the Falcons to lose to the Vikings, because the Falcons are the better team. Huh? Still, 12 points is a huge spread, and we haven't seen the Rams blowing anybody out except the Cardinals at home, and the Falcons have more talent than the Cardinals. An easy Rams win, but despite better judgement, the gut says...

The Seer Sees: Falcons beat the spread

There you have it. Have fun this weekend as you watch the leaves begin their descent to the ground.

Tue, 07 Oct 2003 15:31:13 GMT

Stupid Seer

I missed one of the great comebacks on all of football history a few years ago. The Jets were down by something like 35 points, and it was a Monday night game, and it was late, and why the hell should I stay up to watch a blowout, anyway?

That's pretty much how I felt last night when I saw that the Buccaneers were up 28-7 over the Colts. We all know the Colts can score, but the Bucs, with their great D and a huge lead? Fugettaboutit. I mentally began tallying a column on why the Bucs are, in fact, still the best team around, seeing as how their only loss was to a very good Carolina team, and it was a game that by all rights they should have won.

That column will never see the light of day. Maybe I should write about the Colts instead? For the record, the Seer predicted that the Colts would beat the 4.5 point spread, and so now the Seer stands at 31-24, good for a 56.4% clip. Suddenly, 58% seems downright attainable. I need an 800 number!

But at least I missed the game for good reason, to watch the Oakland A's fold for a 9th consecutive game when they had a chance to advance in the postseason with a win. I personally have attended two of those games. I belong to a Twins message board that has an ongoing debate about the merits of Billy Beane's philosophies regarding plate discipline. I think Beane's ideas are smart and necessary, and really they aren't even Beane's ideas so much as Earl Weaver's ideas.

But there are a few people on the board who like to point at Oakland's lack of postseason success as an invalidation of Beane's methods. These people will also somehow claim that the "old school" or "small ball" approach taken by the Twins is proven to be superior, because after all, the Twins beat the A's last year.

Well, whatever. I don't see Oakland's losses as anything more than a run of bad performance, bad luck, and well...bad luck. Sometimes you lose the big games. That's how it is. Billy Beane's philosophy sure didn't have anything to do with Derek Lowe throwing two nasty pitches to strike out Adam Melhuse and Terrence Long last night.

Now I'm in the position of having to root for the Red Sox to beat the Yankees, which is easy enough to do. In the NL, I would normall root for the Cubs, given who is left, but this Marlins team has caught my fancy, and I'll be hoping to watch Dontrelle Willis in Fenway Park in the World Series.

Thu, 02 Oct 2003 19:03:50 GMT

Welcome to the NFL, Jake Plummer

The Seer Sees: Week 5 of the NFL

Ah, Week 5. Week 5 is when the truly elite and the truly awful teams start to seperate themselves from the pack.

The Seer enters play this week with a record of 22-19 vs. the spread, good for a 53.7% success rate. While this is a respectable record, it won't be paying any mortgages anytime soon, and is well short of the hallowed 58% goal that the Seer has committed to. But it is early, and as Robert Plant once said, yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run, there's still time to change the road you're on. When you play that backwards, Plant can actually be heard saying, "Jake Plummer's going to get his head handed to him in Arrowhead this weekend. Praise the Seer!"

Titans @ Patriots, Titans by 2

The Patriots remain a team beset with injuries on defense, and the Titans are a very physical team. I'm not sure the Pats have the talent to overcome the lack of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball at this point. The Titans, they just keep rolling along. They lost to Indy in Indy, but knowing what we seem to know about the Colts these days, maybe that's not the black mark I thought it was. I like Belichick's chances to scheme the D to shut down Eddie George, but how do you plan for McNair?

The Seer Sees: Titans cover

Bengals @ Bills, Bills by 8

Now, wait a minute-the Bengals finally break through last week, on the road, no less. The Bills, on the other hand, get outplayed two weeks in a row against Philly and Miami. And yet, the Bills get an eight point spread? If Ricky Williams can run wild on Buffalo, so can Corey Dillon. This spread makes no sense to the Seer.

The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread

Dolphins @ Giants, Giants by 1

You know...why not just make this a pick 'em? The Seer doesn't have a good read on the Gents yet. Played sloppy against the Rams, lost a game they shouldn't have to the Cowboys, and lost a game they shouldn't have to the Skins. The Dolphins, despite their mystery appearance in the opener against an improved Texans team, have been rolling behind Ricky Williams. For reasons the Seer does not understand...

The Seer Sees: Dolphins beat the spread

Seahawks @ Packers, Packers by 2.5

Ugh. This is a tough one. The Packers appeared to have put the ugliness of the Arizona desert behind them, but then again, they were playing a Bears squad with only one talented player, and that guy spent the entire week before the game inside a Hilton luxury suite. How good are the Seahawks, really? The beat the Saints, but now we know that ain't no great shakes. They beat the Cardinals, but everybody but the Packers can do that. They beat the Rams, but so what? But guess what? The Packers ain't what they used to be, either. More than that, the Packers just played Monday night, and the Seahawks had a full two weeks to prepare for this game and rest. And you don't think Mike Holmgren would give any special emphasis to going into Lambeau, do you?

The Seer Sees: The Seahawks beat the spread

Raiders @ Bears, Raiders by 4

They are trying to tempt us, aren't they? They know we see the pathetic, aging Raiders, and we know they are on the edge of a great abyss. They barely beat the Chargers and Bengals, and they lost to the Titans and Broncos. This ain't the same team they were last year, not even close. They know we know that. And yet, we know how awful Chicago is. Just terrible, and coming off a short week, to boot. It's a sucker bet if the Seer ever saw one. But the Seer ain't no sucker.

The Seer Sees: Raiders cover

Saints @ Panthers, Panthers by 6.5

Looks like the Panthers are starting to get their props from the betting public (and the Saints theirs, too). The Seer still cannot believe that the Saints are this bad. But with a lot of defensive starters still ailing, how do they stop Stephen Davis? Still, the Seer doesn't see the Panthers running up huge points on anybody, and the Saints still have Deuce, if they'll use him. The Saints won't win, but this is a big spread for a ball control offense.

The Seer Sees: Saints beat the spread

Vikings @ Falcons, Vikings by 4.5

This is easy money, people. The Falcons stink, and the Vikings are for real. Easy as that. The Vikings O-line will roll all day long, and it doesn't matter if it's the backup QB or RB in the game. Falcons CB Tyrone Williams is out this week, not that Randy Moss wasn't going to incinerate him anyway. But now the backup gets to take a crack at the Freak. TJ Duckett will pile up some yards on the ground for Atlanta, but only until the Falcons fall so far behind they have to throw. Believe it.

The Seer Sees: Vikings cover

Broncos @ Chiefs, Chiefs by 4

Game of the week, maybe game of the season so far. Jake Plummer's been in the NFL for a few years now; he's even been to the playoffs once. But nothing in Plummer's career will match what it will be like playing in Arrowhead this Sunday. If Plummer can step up, the Seer will certainly take notice. But Denver, despite a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball, just doesn't have what it takes to stop this Chiefs team. But there is the matter of that spread...Four points is a large number against a 4-0 team, and these games tend to be close, down to the wire affairs. The Seer is confused by the possibilities, clouded by childhood loyalties. The Chiefs win the game, but...

The Seer Sees: Broncos beat the spread

Cardinals @ Dallas, Dallas by 7.5

Emmitt Smith's awkward homecoming. The Seer hates to see careers end this way, you know? Not that Smith (or Jordan, or Clemens, or Willie Mays, or whoever) doesn't have the right to keep playing for any team that will have him. It's totally his right. But it's just hard to see a guy who was such a tank for so long don a different jersey, by definition a shadow of his former self (otherwise his old team would still want him). The Seer roots for Emmitt Smith, despite years of hating the Cowboys. Emmitt was class. Emmitt went back and got his degree. Emmitt wasn't flash, he was all grit and getting in his own licks before he got brought down. The Seer hopes he scores a TD in Big D. The fans want that, too. You know they do. You always root for your boys, or your 'Boys, but when true heroes come back to Irving, you salute them no matter which sorry team they've cast their lot with.

Also, let it be known that the Seer is expressing a little bit of a social concern here, that this corner of the media is placing a lot of hopes onto the shoulders of Cowboys linebacker Dat Nguyen, who is, to the knowledge of the Seer, one of the only, if not the only, player of predominantly Asian descent in the NFL. The media so desperately wants to have an Asian success in the NFL these days, and the Seer just wants to be sure that Mr. Nguyen receives his just praise, which is, of course, to be the league MVP.

As for the game, don't you think 7.5 is a big spread for the Cowboys against anyone?

[CONVULSION!]

Uh...excuse me...the Seer blacked out there for a moment. We were just getting ready to pick the Cardinals, a testament to Emmitt's pure desire to put on a show in his former stomping ground, when a visage appeared before the Seer, right on the computer monitor. It was the Seer, looking back at the Seer, with words from the past: "We learned that, just as Bill Simmons counseled in his own column, picking the Cardinals on the road is a bad, bad idea." And then, the visage of the Seer lifted, and a new apparition appeared. It was Bill Simmons himself. He pointed at me, and said: "You will see Jimmy Fallon get through an "SNL" skit without cracking up before you see me taking the Cards on the road this season." And then, a third apparition: The Seer's mother and father, driving north on I-35 at this very moment, talking about John Ritter, Robert Palmer, and which riverboat casino they most enjoy, but then stopping their conversation mid-sentence to declare in unison monotone voices as they look straight ahead, "The Cardinals cannot cover on the road."

Creepy, and prescient.

The Seer Sees: Cowboys cover

Chargers @ Jaguars, Chargers by 3

Sheesh. Two 0-4 teams, but the road team gets the favorable spread. The Seer doesn't want to make this more complicated than it needs to be. The Chargers have one badass player in LaDainian Tomlinson. The Jags have none, and a rookie QB to boot. Both lost heartbreakers last week, but one lost to a bad team, and one lost to a team that went to the Super Bowl last year. 'Nuff said.

The Seer Sees: Chargers cover

Redskins @ Eagles, Eagles by 4

Guess the Eagles are back, at least in the minds of the betting public. Seems like a big spread to the Seer, considering that the 'Skins are getting it done. The Seer so badly wants to see the Black QB triumph, though. A real quandry.

The Seer Sees: Redskins beat the spread

Lions @ 49ers, 49ers by 7

Good luck on this one. The 49ers looked completely lost last week, and their secondary spontaneously combusted whenever Randy Moss was within five feet of them. Charles Rogers, hello! The Lions played the Broncos tough last week, and the Seer thinks they are a team that is on the rise. Does Mariucci get smug or sad when he sees what assclown Dennis Erickson has done with this team? Still, the 49ers can only go up after last week's ugly debacle, right? Right?

The Seer Sees: 49ers cover

Browns @ Steelers, Steelers by 7

Browns have shown the Seer nothing so far. Tim Couch is in, and that's a good thing. But where's the rest of the talent? They can't score, and that's usually a problem in the NFL.

Speaking of scoring in the NFL, is anyone watching Playmakers on ESPN? Yeah, there are some corny parts, and they try to cover Every Single Issue Known To Sports, but I have to say that I enjoy the show quite a bit. Last week's show was about how NFL players have their choice of choice women, all day, and all of the night. (Best Pickup Line? "It's 2:30. You wanna go?") But this week, it seems that one player has something to hide. He's <gasp> GAY! The show can't resist some really corny lines associated with any subplot, and each central player has a bit of a running dialogue voice-over where they talk about their Issue, whether it's getting old, having a drug problem, inadvertently paralyzing a guy, or the fact that "football is deception, but sooner or later everybody finds out what play you're running." (Hint: That's the internal dialogue of the closeted gay player.) But then you get some painful and unintentionally funny moments of dialogue like this: The team is practicing a play-action fake, and none of them can do it because they are all dragging because they were nailing supermodels the night before (or taking them to ER and dumping them off after an OD). Only the gay receiver seems to be on the ball, causing the coach to say, "Can't anybody but [closeted gay player] run a fake on this team?" Huh, huh. How ironic! The gay guy is the only one who can run the deception play! Why not just make him a tight end? Still, the show is original and unique, and there are some pretty good storylines going on. I'm not saying it's great, yet, but I think it had potential. Really, I'm just talking it up because it has some black guys in it, and as a self-styled member of the media, I really want them to do well.

Anyway...

The Seer Sees: Steelers cover

Monday Night

Colts @ Buccaneers, Buccaneers by 4.5

Another hot, hot game. And a tough one. Where are the Seer's parents on this one? Man, coach reunions abound this week, don't they? If Peyton Manning can put up another huge night against the Bucs, then he's the man. I guess the Seer's feeling is, we know the Colts can score, and now they can defend a little bit, too. We know the Bucs can defend, but can they score? The Seer has always been huge on the Bucs, but this Colts team seems more balanced. That's what you get for watching a team beat up on the sad sack Saints. Either way, tight game, and should be a great one.

The Seer Sees: Colts cover

That's it, folks. The Seer is out tomorrow for a long weekend spent with family, football, and the Twins as they take out the Yankees. Enjoy the best time of the year.

Wed, 01 Oct 2003 21:21:06 GMT

Football analysis is so much better with race-baiting, don't you think?

Rush Limbaugh Is Gutless, and So Is ESPN

As most football fans know, Rush Limbaugh now spends his Sundays doing commentary on ESPN's pregame show. Limbaugh is obviously well-known for his conservative ideology and willingness to tweak liberals and liberal thought at every opportunity. Limbaugh is also, by most accounts, a learned football observer.

Thus, ESPN hired Limbaugh to provide commentary for them this year, with the obvious goal of increasing ratings. ESPN is not to be faulted for that motive; it's what TV and radio are all about. But ESPN spun Limbaugh's hiring as a football-motivated hiring, and downplayed his pseudo-political primary career, saying that he was there as a football voice.

Bullshit. Limbaugh ain't on that show breaking down the zone blitz. His first appearances have focused on issues like minority hiring, issues that have clear social (and political) import. Do you think people are going to tune in to hear Rush Limbaugh talk football? Hell, no. They want Rush to know football, but they want to hear him apply his controversial bent to football. Otherwise, what's the point? It's like having Dennis Miller come in, but not be funny.

Limbaugh's "football" analysis this weekend? That Donovan McNabb was overrated because he is a black QB. Limbaugh's original quote:

"I think what we've had here is a little social concern in the NFL. The media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well," Limbaugh said. "There is a little hope invested in McNabb, and he got a lot of credit for the performance of this team that he didn't deserve. The defense carried this team."

Let's deconstruct that. The first line, about "a little social concern" in the NFL, is interesting. First of all, the NFL is and should be very conscious of social concerns, given the hiring record for coaches. Why shouldn't a huge industry like the NFL be subject to social concerns (unless, of course, it involves gays in the lockerroom, where everybody in the NFL just pretends that has never, and will never happen). Moreover, that first line is the clue that this is not just Limbaugh as football commentator; it blurs the line completely between Limbaugh as sports analyst and Limbaugh as political analyst. Understand, I don't really have a problem with that; but please, ESPN-don't insult my intelligence by saying that Limbaugh is strictly doing football commentary, because he's not. This is social commentary from the biggest ideologue (with a huge audience of his own that is probably now tuning to ESPN) in the country.

The comments from ESPN's Executive Vice President, Mark Shapiro, are telling:

"This is not a politically motivated comment. This is a sports and media argument," Shapiro was quoted as saying in a USA Today column published Wednesday. "Rush was arguing McNabb is essentially overrated and that his success is more in part [due] to the team assembled around him.

"We brought Rush in for no-holds-barred opinion. Early on, he has delivered," Shapiro told USA Today.

Really? Hmm. Yes, Rush is arguing those things. No problem there. McNabb might, in fact, be overrated, which I'll talk about below. The issue is Rush's absurd explanation for why he is overrated. Nice spin, but no dice. And that last statement about Rush delivering isn't really about his opinions. It's about the ratings bump he has delivered to ESPN. Hey, that bump ain't coming from Michael Irvin.

But it's the second sentence that is the real laugher. Oh, it's the media who wants a black QB to do well, huh? Rush, do you think this is 1978? Where have you been? Do the names Doug Williams, Steve McNair, Daunte Culpepper, Aaron Brooks, Michael Vick, Jeff Blake, Kordell Stewart or Randall Cunningham mean anything to you, Rush? In that group, you'll find Super Bowl champions, MVPs, numerous Pro Bowlers and All Pros and Hall of Famers to be. And none of that even gets to Donovan McNabb, a former MVP in his own right.

Gee, Rush, it seems to me that there have been plenty of great black QB's in the 14 years since Flavor Flav busted out his Doug Williams rhyme: Yo, we gettin' ready to watch the Super Bowl, we got a black quarterback so step back.

So, are you saying that all of those QB's were a product of the media, Rush? No, of course you aren't going out on that limb, because those QB's weren't 0-2 before you're little speech, right Rush? The implication that the media has this dying need for a successful black QB really doesn't seem to hold much water, given how many great black QB's there are in the league today.

And why, if the liberal media is so thirsty for a great black QB, did Kordell Stewart not win universal praise during his time at the helm of the Steelers, when they went to the SuperBowl? Oh, sure, Kordell had plenty of critics, still does, despite his dogged and unrepentant continued blackness. But maybe that had something to do with the fact that Kordell couldn't recognize a defense even if he was standing in the defensive huddle.

Finally, let's just examine Limbaugh's claim, that McNabb got too much credit anyway, when it was the defense that carried the team. Hey, memo to Rush: The QB's on winning teams always get more credit than they may deserve, whether they are as black as Donovan McNabb or as white as Terry Bradshaw. Was Philly a great defensive team? Of course. How many defensive players win the MVP? Very few. (Of course, it's worth noting that they were all BLACK!) McNabb made the Eagles an offensive force when they had very few offensive weapons. Am I saying he was the definitive MVP? No. I couldn't tell you who was. But I can tell you that Donovan McNabb (and Michael Vick, and Chad Pennington, and soon, Patrick Ramsey) are all overrated somewhat because they are young and exciting QB's on successful teams. Ain't got nothing to do with color, Rush, and you know it.

Naturally, Rush isn't backing down from the statement. I got no beef with that, because he said what he said, and it was calculated, probably not just by Rush but perhaps even by ESPN. They need the controversy, right? That's why he's there, right? Donovan McNabb wondered why Michael Irvin, Tom Jackson, Steve Young, Chris Berman or anyone else on the set didn't challenge Rush. It could have been because they were shocked. It might even have been because they agreed with him (though they all had the good sense to not say it on air). But it might also be because they were told that Rush was going to do his bit, and there wasn't going to be debate on it. In fact, according to this story, USAToday said that ESPN "chose not to have Irvin, Young or Jackson comment on the story." Hmm. They can't comment directly about it, but ESPN can run stories on the whole brouhaha on their site. Keep the message out there, drive the ratings, but don't villify the new cash cow, right?

In fact, instead of backing down from the statement, check out what Rush had to say about the furor:

"All this has become the tempest that it is because I must have been right about something," Limbaugh said. "If I wasn't right, there wouldn't be this cacophony of outrage that has sprung up in the sports writer community."

Ah, of course, Rush. Where there's smoke, there's fire, right? (Never mind all the smoke floating around about Wilsongate, though, which you have called a "non-story" in your other career...) Yes, it is certainly true that there are times when people will respond most vociferously when they have been confronted with the truth. But there are also times when a jackass says something racially-motivated for the sake of ratings which is false, and people feel the need to point out what a stupid statement it is. Using Rush's logic, if Rush said, "I think Howard Dean is a homo who would like to get pegged by John Edwards", there would naturally be an outcry. But that very outcry would prove that Rush must have been right! Ergo, if Rush says something that nobody responds to, then it must have been false. But since everything Rush says will get a reaction, he must always be right!

The worst part of all of this is that it shows how truly gutless Limbaugh is. McNabb started 0-2. You think any of this would have been said if he was 2-0? Where's the liberal media love for the 4-0 Daunte Culpepper, Rush? Where's that at?

But it goes beyond kicking a player while he's down. Part of the territory. But this is just old-fashioned race-baiting, especially when viewed in the context of his other "analysis" of the NFL's atrocious hiring practices when it comes to black coaches.

This is the same garbage he spouts off on his shows. What next? A spirited campaign to get women out of the lockerrooms again? An Al Campanis-style declaration that blacks "don't have the necessities" to take on leadership positions like QB or Head Coach?

I thought it was about the games. I thought it was about celebrating athletic achievement in a variety of sports and contests, regardless of what society wanted the participants to look and act and sound like. I thought ESPN was immune. I guess being the World Wide Leader In Sports was enough, a worthy title. Now the quest is different, to be the World Wide Leader In Ratings. Stupid me. It's always about the demographics, isn't it?

I thought ESPN was better than this.

Mon, 29 Sep 2003 20:04:04 GMT

The Seer Sees: .500

Know this: NFL Sunday Ticket is a beautiful thing. Friend of Pipeline Chris Z. has the Ticket, and he's not afraid to use it. The Ticket is the foundation for the Ideal Sunday, which seems to go like this at the Z Household: Wake up, put on sweat suit, sit down, tell son and his friends to walk dogs, watch games, go to bed. All the Seer needs to make that a reality is the NFL Season Ticket, another dog, and some friends for Son of Seer. We all have to have something to strive for, don't we?

The NFL is perfect, for this reason: It's a short season. Everything gets crammed into 16 games, meaning that each individual game is literally 10 times more important than a baseball game, given baseball's 162-game schedule. NFL games are five times more important than NBA games. And the playoffs? Forget about a best-of series. One game. Winner moves on. Loser goes home. That's why there is so much hype over the NFL, and because the season is short, the hype can be sustained, unlike March during the NBA season, which is awful for even a die-hard hoops fan.

The Ticket allowed the Seer to witness the last few minutes of an entertaining Jaguars/Texans contest, as well as large parts of every other early game. It was one helluva lot of fun.

For the week, not counting tonight's gimmie, the Seer finished 5-5. Given the lack of good vibrations the Seer felt going in, we consider this a supreme victory. What did we learn?

We learned that, just as Bill Simmons counseled in his own column, picking the Cardinals on the road is a bad, bad idea. They are inconsistent and bad, which means that they'll get huge lines all year, and beat the spread more than they should. The Cardinals are gambling death this year, I feel it. The Rams? They had guys step in and perform, but how good are they against a real team? Another hard to figure team.

The Seer Saw: Cardinals beating the 10.5 spread

The Seer Was: Wrong!

We learned that the Vikings are Damn Good. Call it a statement game, call it a game against an overrated and imploding 49ers team, call it whatever you want, but they manhandled the 49ers in a way that is hard to just write off if you're a Niners player or fan. The Vikings did this without their starting QB or HB. They have Atlanta next week. 5-0? This game wasn't on the board at the time we picked, which is good. We would have been wrong.

We learned that Tennessee is just solid. They own Pittsburgh now. McNair just makes big plays, over and over again. Was the loss at Indy just a bad game? Hard to say, but this team looks tough now.

The Seer Saw: Titans beating the 3 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Redskins might just be for real, but it's hard to say. The Patriots were awfully banged-up defensively, and this game still went right down to the wire. Still, the Skins are finding ways to win.

The Seer Saw: Patriots beating the 1.5 spread

The Seer Was: Wrong!

The Texans and Jags played a great game, or at least a great finish. Personally, I think the Texans going for it at the end was dumb. You've got a rookie QB on the road, wouldn't OT seem to favor you substantially? Still, a big call, and a smart play. Where was the linebacker for the Jags to guard against that dive?

The Seer Saw: Texans beating the 3 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Eagles finally got sharp QB play, and now that Bills bandwagon is slowing a bit, huh? HUGE win for Philly. Saved the season. Buffalo was hurt by Travis Henry's absence, and with both Henry and Willis McGahee possibly available later in the year, this is going to be an interesting Bills team to watch.

The Seer Saw: Bills covering the 3 point spread

The Seer Was: Wrong!

The Bengals finally broke through, and the Browns still can't score much. This Browns team is stinky. How much import can their win over the 49ers have, now that we have seen what an abyss that team is in?

The Seer Saw: The Bengals beating the 5.5 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Chiefs and Ravens played a tight defensive game that was broken open when mighty-mite Dante Hall ran a kick back with about 5:00 to go in the game. In a defensive game like that, that late in the game, you knew that was the ballgame. What a force Hall is. A hot kick returner is one of the more exciting things in sports, if you ask the Seer. And Dante is...I don't even have to say it, do I?

The Seer Saw: The Chiefs covering the 3 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Raiders struggled mightily until the end, when they finally topped the Chargers on an OT field goal. The Raiders still look old to me, and they are winning some games over lame teams (Bengals, Chargers) by a whisker, while getting waxed (Broncos) and beaten up (Titans) by good teams in their losses. For an aging team, that's not a good sign.

The Seer Saw: Raiders covering the 6.5 point spread

The Seer Was: Wrong!

The Jets have hit Rock Bottom, and Tuna beats yet another former team with his up-and-coming Cowboys. This wasn't even a game, really. Frankly, you have to wonder: Was Chad Pennington so good that he would have turned all this around? I don't think so. This Jets team is bereft of talent, and Herm Edwards is looking like a lost coach these days.

The Seer Saw: Cowboys beating the 3 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Panthers smacked around the Atlanta Falcons, 23-3. Seriously, here's another example of a team that has its hopes pinned on one player. And Michael Vick is a very good player, potentially a great player. But after seeing the Vikings take the field with Gus Frerotte, and then wipe up the 49ers, you have a little less sympathy for the plights of teams like the Jets and Falcons, who just don't seem to have enough talent across the board. Carolina's D continues to look scary...

The Seer Saw: Panthers cover the 6 point spread

The Seer Was: Right!

The Lions gave Denver a strong fight before finally falling 20-16. There is speculation that the Broncos were looking ahead to next week's mega-match against the Chiefs, and that seems plausible enough. But the Seer still doesn't trust Jake Plummer.

The Seer Saw: Broncos covering the 13 point spread

The Seer Was: Wrong!

And, finally, the Colts humiliated the Saints at home. The Saints were missing five starters on D, but it didn't matter. The Colts just lambasted them, and the Saints offense was far more inept than it had any right to be. Bill Simmons was right: Stay away from the Saints. And the Colts? God, they looked good. Maybe too good. I have no idea what that means. It was like a Minnesota Golden Gophers non-conference game. Total Rout. Now the Colts have beaten up on Tennessee and the Saints, two decent to good teams, and they ground out wins against the Jags and Browns. I'm starting to believe.

The Seer Saw: The Saints beating the 1.5 point spread

The Seer Was: Very Wrong!

There you have it, 5-5 on Sunday, and a game to go tonight. Hope you had a nice weekend.

Fri, 26 Sep 2003 21:32:49 GMT

It's On!

Oh, so now Bill Simmons wants to start his own weekly football picks column too? OK, sure, I wish I'd made the joke about the Raiders aging in dog years. I admit that.

The scary part? We differ on only two games. He feels strongly that betting on the Cardinals on the road is a bad idea, and the Seer sure can't argue with him. But we took the Cards because something's smelly in St. Louis, and it's a big number.

And Simmons has given up hope completely on the Saints, also probably an infinitely wise move that the Seer just hasn't come around on yet.

Other than those picks, and better material in his column, we are in lockstep. I always knew we would end up working together, sort of.

Also, I'm glad to see that Byron Leftwich is starting for the Jags in Houston. In which quarter will Byron break his ankle? I say...third.

Thu, 25 Sep 2003 18:43:38 GMT

Will the real Donovan McNabb please step up?

The Seer Sees: Week 4 of the NFL

This is a trouble week, the kind of week that should only see hardcore gamblers and lunatics laying down wagers on more than a couple games. Why? Injuries and road favorites. Injuries come in three flavors in the NFL. Flavor One is when you know a guy is out, and you know enough about his backup to know whether he is good or bad. You can deal with a Flavor One injury, because what you need as a wagerer is certainty, or at least a close approximation of the illusion of certainty.

Flavor Two injuries are where you know a guy is going to be out, but you don't know a damn thing about how his replacement is going to play, or how the rest of the injured player's team is going to adjust their scheme. There's uncertainty there. Uncertainty bad.

Flavor Three injuries are the worst, though. We'll call it the Edgerrin James Flavor this week, because James is, as of today, 50-50 this weekend. What the Hell? Now you don't know whether to evaluate the Colts with or without James, and you don't know if Dominick Rhodes, his backup, is going to play, either. Of course, it's no coincidence that the Saints don't know, either. The Seer only has to pick the games; the Saints have to come up with a gameplan without knowning who they'll play against.

The list of injuries this week is a long one, but that's just par for the course as the NFL wears on. Still, in a week where Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Clinton Portis, Marshall Faulk, Edge James, the entire Patriots defense, David Boston and a few others are likely to be reduced or removed from game action this week, it makes for a tougher slate to pick against.

And then there are the road favorites. More or less, line dogma says that being the home team is worth 3 points. So if you have two teams that are a pick 'em at a neutral site, the team that is home is going to be a 3 point favorite. But the reality is, winning on the road ain't easy in the NFL, and covering spreads sometimes just doesn't happen the way it should. You know more or less that at least two road favorites aren't going to cover. Last week, for example...Well, now that I look at it, only one road favorite failed to cover last week, and that was the Packers. God, that means all the road favorites are due to tank this week!

Well, the reality is that I haven't come up with a hard and fast rule on road favorites, and I'm not so into this that I'm going to go out and do research beyond what my own picks and head and gut tell me, because I fear that would be crossing a line of enthusiasm and perceived knowlege that might actually lead me to want to try to persuade Jane to let me lay money down on these games, and that's no good for anybody at all.

At least until I start hitting my 58% goal. Then she'll be begging me to put the money down.

And now that I look at the lines, I notice that there aren't even that many road favorites this week. I got that notion from a panicked Packers fan who was talking incoherently to me on the phone at 2:00 AM about the heat in Arizona during the Cardinals game, and then something about road games and the Lambeau Leap and bratwursts being better than cheddarwursts, and I don't even remember all of what this poor shellshocked chap had to say. It turns out he was wrong, dead wrong, about the number of scary road favorites this week, though he turned out to be a sage voice of reason on the shortcomings of the cheddarwurst.

Let's jump right in, shall we?

Week 4

Patriots @ Redskins, Redskins by 1.5

The Patriots are a troubling lot. Their Week 1 massacre at the hands of the Bills is still working to keep their lines skewed, and now they have lost Roosevelt Colvin and run-stopping DT Ted (State of) Washington, as well as a couple of key LB's. Injuries are really hurting that D. But Bill Belichick is a master of preparation, and you have to think that he might have some tricks up his sleeve for Rookie QB Patrick R. The Skins are due for a slight stop to their momentum.

The Seer Sees: Patriots beat the spread

Chiefs @ Ravens, Chiefs by 3

Well, this is a scary road favorite. The only decent offensive team the Ravens have played is the Steelers, and the Chiefs are a far sight better than that team, as they proved in Week 2. Priest Holmes is out to show the Ravens that they may have made a mistake in not keeping him around, when they chose to go with Jamal Lewis instead. Two great backs, but only one great offense. The Seer is very wary of this game, but one of these teams seems to be a lot better than the other...

The Seer Sees: Chiefs cover

Eagles @ Bills, Bills by 3

I think this is the critical game of the week. It's a tough one to pick. McNabb and co. have looked clueless in their first two weeks, and I have to think the two weeks off may have been as much of a detriment as a benefit. Still, McNabb is better than he has shown, and the Seer expects Philly to come out with some simple formations to get his confidence back. The Bills were just brutalized by Ricky Williams last Sunday night, but the Eagles don't have that kind of RB. The Eagles are missing some key people in the secondary, though, and Bledsoe and co. are itching to get back on the field after sitting on the sidelines most of last week.

The Seer Sees: Bills cover

Titans @ Steelers, Steelers by 3

Another tough one. These are always great games. The Titans came up big against the Saints last week, but laid an egg against Indy the week before. Tough to know which team will show up. Still, the Seer expects this to be a very close game, Closer than 3, though?

The Seer Sees: Titans beat the spread

Bengals @ Browns, Browns by 5.5

In a week of tough picks, this one looks like a breather. The Bengals are an improving lot, and the Seer can only guess that people are heartened by the Browns' last drive against the 49ers last week, and figure that will carry over. The Browns should be better than they are, but the Bengals are getting better. 5.5 seems big against a Browns team that has struggled to put up points all season long.

The Seer Sees: Bengals beat the spread

49ers @ Vikings, off the board

This game isn't even on the board, because of all the injuries. Since the Seer is a slave to the board, we won't pick this game, either. Gut feeling? The Seer doesn't think the Vikings go 4-0.

Falcons @ Panthers, Panthers by 6

This just in: The Panthers are for real. They have a bad-ass defensive line and a workhorse RB in Stephen Davis, and a smart defensive-minded coach in John Fox. Fox's offense is a bit too vanilla for my tastes, but when you have mediocre QB's and a stud RB, that's probably smart. The Falcons are sinking fast, with only a victory over green Dallas to crow about. The Redskins loss at home, after being up 17-0, was a killer. QB Doug Johnson is immobile, and the Panthers' D may further immobilize him.

The Seer Sees: Panthers cover

Cardinals @ Rams, Rams by 10.5

Hmm. OK. So the Cardinals did win a game last week. Maybe they aren't quite as bad as everyone thought. The Rams? Well, Marshall Faulk is gone, and there is talk that they might go conservative this week and run the ball. Who knows? It's a big spread. Sometimes, when a team finally breaks through and wins a game, they gain a sense of purpose that can fuel overall improvement. Then again, sometimes teams only win one game a year. The Rams haven't shown the Seer enough to think that a 10.5 point spread is automatic, and Jeff Blake is getting major yards through the air.

The Seer Sees: Cardinals beat the spread

Jaguars @ Texans, Jaguars by 3

How bad are the Jags, when they are only favored by 3 against the Texans? Of course, one of these teams is winless, and it ain't the Texans. The Houston crowd will be loud, though, and the Seer has a hunch this will be a close game.

The Seer Sees: Texans beat the spread

Chargers @ Raiders, Raiders by 6.5

The Chargers have been an abomination this season, and now they have injury problems on the O-line, and a possible team-ordered suspension against the over-inflated David Boston. The Raiders, on the other hand, look soooo old. The passing game isn't working like it used to, as the receivers can't get seperation, and the defenses have adjusted to the short passing attack. There is talk from Raider camp that they might revamp the offense and go with more of a pounding, running attack. We'll see. I think the Raiders bounce back big-time this week, as they rally behind returned Super Bowl AWOL psychotic freak Barrett Robbins. Meanwhile, LaDainian Tomlinson is the new Corey Dillon in the NFL, a waste of a premier running back on a terrible team.

The Seer Sees: Raiders cover

Cowboys @ Jets, Jets by 3

ESPN's John Clayton, the Seer's favorite NFL reporter because he's such a poindexter that we imagine him getting stuffed into lockers all across the league, had a great line about this game, saying that Cowboys coach Bill Parcells might win more games in the Meadowlands this year than the Jets do. The Seer can't help but feel for the Jets, who have fallen from the glory days of early NFL upset darlings and 80's era dance bad to having their wagon so completely abandoned after Chad Pennington's injury. "But what about this game?", you say with $500 big ones burning a hole in the breast pocket of your smoking jacket. The Cowboys aren't pretty. But they are getting better. Parcells wins again.

The Seer Sees: Cowboys beat the spread

Lions @ Broncos, Broncos by 13

Geez, that's a big spread. The Seer has seen the Lions play. The Seer has seen the Broncos play.

The Seer Sees: Broncos cover

Colts @ Saints, Colts by 1.5

Ah, now this is the scary road favorite. Scary because of Edge James and Dominick Rhodes' playing statuses. Scary because the Saints are an enigma, but seem to be a slightly better enigma at home. If the Saints would just run the ball with Deuce McAllister, things will be just fine. Can you do that for the Seer?

The Seer Sees: Saints beat the spread

Monday Night

Packers @ Bears, Packers by 4

Yeah, like a new $500 million, uglified Soldier Field can come down and play the offensive line for the Bears. Loss to the Cardinals or not, this line is a joke. It's Brett Favre, it's Monday Night, and it's against the Bears. Easy, easy money. The Seer is emptying his bank account as this goes to press.

The Seer Sees: Packers cover

There you have it. The Seer sees this week with the clarity of a mariner caught off the Newfoundland coast in the midst of a dense and persistent fog. This is a Tough Week. Only the Packers and Panthers picks seem trustworthy. Some weeks you make your breaks. Some weeks you just go broke. The Seer has a bad feeling about this one.