That’s just what Ahhnuld would like you to believe… he can’t win with ideas, so he has to win with the “inevitability” argument --- you know, if it’s raining you might as well relax and enjoy it…
But the race may NOT be over, since the latest poll is based on a lowball estimate of voter turnout (the GOP always does better under low turnout conditions). So this “poll”—based on depressed turnout estimates--by depicting the race as over, may actually lead to depressed turnout! Talk about the tail wagging the dog…
The following is from Californians Against the Costly Recall:
Many of you have called and inquired about the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP poll and the status of the anti-recall effort.
THE CNN POLL IS AN ABERRATION.
I have attached a memo from our pollsters, Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates, explaining the current polls.
Additionally, Sunday's Matier and Ross column in the San Francisco Chronicle, has a detailed discussion of a half-dozen polls released in the past four or five days, all of which have the YES on the recall below 55%, which is consistent with our own polling (see below).
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2003/09/28/BA193375.DTL
TO: Californians Against the Costly Recall
FROM: Paul Maslin and Ben Tulchin
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates
DATE: September 29, 2003
RE: Poll Results
A lot has been made about the recent CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP poll that was just released showing the recall and Arnold Schwarzenegger both winning by wide margins. It is fair to say that this poll is an exception to what every other poll on the recall, both public and private and Democratic and Republican, has been finding recently.
Our own internal tracking polls show the margin of the recall in single digits, with the "Yes" vote barely at 50% (51%, to be precise). Furthermore, we have seen the no vote increase over the past week as Democrats and union members have been coming home. These data hold true even for interviews conducted after last Wednesday's debate between the candidates and for the most likely voters, which the CNN poll claimed they used as their universe.
On the second part of the recall, our internal tracking polling shows Arnold with a single-digit lead over Cruz Bustamante. This dynamic has been consistent over the past couple of weeks and is similar to what other reputable private polls have been finding.
Furthermore, sources have informed us that other private polling conducted on the behalf of independent, Democratic, and Republican interests all confirm what our own polling shows. Therefore, based on the litany of evidence, the CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP is clearly an exception to what other polls that have interviewed thousands of voters statewide are finding.
8:36:19 PM
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