Thursday, May 08, 2003

Complacency On SARS   The SARS epidemic seems to be going through several phases of public attention. First, we had the 'total mystery' phase. Then we had the 'yippee, we know what it is' phase. We're still in the next one, which one might call 'we don't know what the hell to do about it if you get it, apart from lock you up' phase. Quarantines are all very fine for containment, and seem to have worked in Vietnam, Canada, and here in the US. But we do urgently need to develop either a vaccine -- which will take two or three years, even at breakneck pace -- or find some more effective therapies. On a scale of one to ten, this is a real threat. SARS's mortality rates greatly outstrip the 'flu epidemic of 1918-19, and make it a bigger menace to public health than malaria, TB or AIDS, combined. It'll kill >50% of older people, maybe 14-15% overall. But all I see are WHO and other officials congratulating themselves on what can only be called scant progress. Clearly, the epidemic is much worse in China than the dishonest government admits, and now it's out in the provinces, where health care is primitive, it's going to get much worse.  11:39:07 AM    comment []

Time To Wake Up & Smell The Plutonium   The New York Times leads off today with a big piece on concerns about Iran's nuclear program, which by definition can't be 'peaceful.' But aren't we missing something here? What about the North Koreans, a known gangster state, which is bristling with hostility? A quick rewind: first these guys decided that the 'ceasefire is over'. Then they started making threats about what they might do. An 'unofficial spokesman' claims it has over 100 nukes, maybe even 300, targeted on the US, rather then the one or two the CIA believes. Do we really believe that is possible? Well, perhaps someone in the administration does, because we're not doing very much about them, are we? At the 'summit' in Beijing a couple of weeks ago, one of the NK generals apparently said to the US delegate: "Yes, we have nuclear weapons. What are you going to do about it?" How could the NK's gang have gotten so many? Not by making them, for sure. Were they a 'gift' from someone? Or sold by the Russian mafiyosi? Failing to treat NK as a threat is a big mistake. What they do and don't have in the long of missiles or nukes right now is not as important as what they might get up to, given their attitude. Turning attention to Iran is all well and good, but the #1 problem on the nuke front is NK. Even the Clinton administration -- a gang of losers -- had the sense to warn them it would take out the facilities, before it cravenly caved in and signed a foolish aid treaty with these war monkeys. In military terms, NK is a pushover, a one-week wonder. Who cares how big the army is? Just more meat targets in hi-tech warfare. What we do seem to be lacking is proper intelligence from inside the country about exactly what they're up to on the nuclear front. Time to find out! 11:29:24 AM    comment []

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