Macedonian President Dead in Plane Crash

A plane carrying President Boris Trajkovski and eight others crashed this morning during bad weather in the mountains east of Dubrovnik, Croatia -- same area where US Commerce Secretary Ron Brown died in April, 1996.

Trajkovski, 47, was a moderate who helped stop civil war from tearing apart Macedonia in 2001. He studied theology in the US and was an ordained Methodist pastor -- unusual in a country with a predominantly Orthodox and Muslim population.

His plane went down in heavy fog and rain while he was on his way to an investment conference in Mostar.

7:00:38 AM   |   

America Lags Behind Balkans

Serbia has had and continues to have problems galore. But it's achieved one thing yet to occur here in the United States: for about a year, the country had a female head of state. Ironic, since the Balkans aren't famous for progress made on the women's equality front.

It's true that Natasa Micic was only acting president, and got her job when political intrigue and arcane election laws combined to produce an unusual outcome. But still...

5:31:30 PM   |   

Croatia, a small country in the Balkans, would like to join the EU, but has repeatedly been told that it must first extradite a retired general, number three on the UN war crimes tribunal's most wanted list. Sounds like a reasonable demand...

...except Le Monde is reporting that the suspected ethnic cleanser, Ante Gotovina, is probably no longer in Croatia. Instead, the ex-general may be enjoying a pleasant retirement in the south of France, an EU member state, where he has political, military and underworld contacts dating back to his stint in the French Foreign Legion.

Maybe he should visit The Hague.

11:47:30 AM   |   

Srebrenica War Criminal Sentenced

The UN war crimes tribunal sentenced Momir Nikolic Tuesday to 27 years in prison for his role in the Srebrenica massacre, in which more than 7,000 Bosnian Muslims were systematically slaughtered.  The sentence was stiffer than the one prosecutors had sought. Presiding Judge Liu Daqun said even the 27-year sentence does not adequately reflect "the totality of the criminal conduct for which [Nikolic] was convicted."

The 48-year-old former schoolteacher was assistant security and intelligence commander for the Bratunac Brigade, which encircled the UN-declared Srebrenica "safe haven" in July 1995. After its fall, Muslim men and boys were separated from women and bused to a nearby farm, where they were shot. The incident was Europe's worst single atrocity since World War II.

As part of a deal with the prosecution, Nikolic pleaded guilty to one count of crimes against humanity (other charges, including genocide, were dropped). He also gave testimony linking the Srebrenica massacre to the Bosnian Serb political and military leadership, including fugitives Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic.

7:11:01 AM   |   

Politically Charged Census

Macedonia's state statistical office has released the first final results of the 2002 census (preliminary figures came out in January 2003). According to the Macedonian Information Agency, they show the country's total population to be 2,022,547. Out of this number,  1,297,981 (64.18%) are Macedonian Slavs, while 509,083 (25.17%) are ethnic Albanians.

Ethnic Turks account for 3.85% (77,959); 2.66% of the population (53,879) are Roma; while 1.78% (17,018) are Serbs. Macedonia is also home to Bosniaks (0.84%), Vlachs (0.48%) and other minorities (totalling 1.04%).

The census has been a political hot potato. Under terms of the Ohrid peace accord, which halted the slide into civil war, the breakdown of the country's ethnic composition will influence how political representation and government services are divvied up among the Macedonian majority and the various minorities -- especially the largest one, the Albanians. An overview can be found here.

It will determine which (and how many) communities are officially bilingual; the amount of broadcasting time given to minority languages; and the number of schools that offer instruction in more than one language, among other issues.

Needless to say, people have had many reasons to want to skew the numbers. Estimates (stingy to wildly hyperbolic) of the country's Albanian population have ranged from 19 percent to 30 and even 40 percent, depending on who is doing the estimating.

11:17:02 AM   |   

Balkan Backlash

As The Economist notes in a recent overview, nationalists have made a comeback in three out of the six former Yugoslav republics (Bosnia, Serbia and now Croatia). 

While domestic problems (economic woes, corruption, infighting among the democratic reformers) are the main culprits, the magazine raises the question of whether the West is doing its own part to undermine reform  -- by pushing too hard for goverments to extradite war crimes indictees.

In many cases, these indictees are regarded at home as war heroes. The demands for extradition put the respective governments in a tight, maybe impossible, position. Until they co-operate fully with the UN tribunal, the way forward is blocked. But meeting the demands threatens to tip the delicate political balance in countries that already have too much to deal with.

Pressure from the West may have played a role in the assassination last March of Serbia's prime minister, Zoran Djindjic. More recently, the UN handed down indictments against four Serb generals at a time when the reformist government was struggling to avoid a collapse.

And in Croatia, international pressure to extradite two veterans of the country's independence war (one, a retired general in his 80s, finally resolved his extradition case by dying) created difficulties for the Western-leaning government of former Prime Minister Ivica Racan. The Economist concludes:

In the long term, completing the trials of those accused of war crimes should help the Balkans heal its wounds. But in the short term, they may be hindering progress towards normality by making it harder to win support for measures to ensure lasting peace and greater prosperity.

Not an easy issue to untangle, for sure. The UN court would sabotage its own legitimacy if it didn't attempt to try all war criminals. But the apparent preoccupation with rounding up indictees, whatever the political consequences, feeds suspicions that the West is more interested in demonstrations of moral superiority than in helping the former Yugoslav countries progress. It invites charges of arrogance. And it may perpetuate a relationship of dependency, setting the stage for future tensions and conflicts which could jeopardize these nations' ability to self-govern.

11:50:14 PM   |   

Fertilizer Used in Istanbul Bombings; Al-Qaeda Link Confirmed

According to Turkish police, suicide bombers carried out the attacks in Istanbul with a fertilizer/fuel oil mix, similar to that used in the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995. The explosives were placed in the beds of pickup trucks driven by the attackers.

Police have also said that a key ally of Osama bin Laden orchestrated the attacks, which were then carried out by Turkish nationals. Due to an official media blackout the ally has not been named, but it's reportedly Abu Mussab Al-Zarkawi.

According to the Daily Telegraph, the suicide bombers were among 4,000 Turkish militants who fought in Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan and received training at Al Qaeda camps. Meanwhile, Turkish Justice Minister Cemil Cicek alleged that there were "pro-Chechens" among those who aided the bombers. Istanbul has a large population of Chechen exiles.

Official death toll from the four Istanbul bombings now stands at 61, with 712 wounded.

9:33:42 AM   |   

More Terrorism Jitters

The UN mission in Kosovo has boosted security in the capital, Pristina, though it is denying that the move is related to information about a possible terrorist threat. Beta news agency reported yesterday that UNMIK had received an anonymous message threatening that one of its facilities would be attacked in the next 72 hours. A TV station in Kosovo claims that KFOR troops have arrested a suspect found in possession of  "a large quantity of explosives."

Another reason for the increase in security: Kosovo Albanians are celebrating Flag Day today.

The US Embassy in Sofia is also taking precautions, including restrictions on pedestrian traffic around the building.

7:18:22 AM   |