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	April 12, 2003

LIBERTY BEFORE DEMOCRACY Several experts on the Middle East have stated that they don't believe Iraq is ready for democracy. On Charlie Rose last night, Fareed Zakaria, editor of Newsweek and author of a new book on the subject called The Future of Freedom , argued that it is more important that Iraqis be granted rights and freedoms than democratic institutions. Highlights: Democracy takes a long time to gain traction, to become part of a people's culture. The necessary foundations for democracy are personal freedoms , the rule of law, and separation of church and state. Without these foundations, there is no example in history of a successful democracy.  Democracy in any region needs a successful model nearby to succeed. Japan was the model for the successful democratization of many Far Eastern country. By contrast, the only Eastern European countries that have built successful and stable democracies are those that share close cultural and historical links with Western European democracies (contrast Hungary with Ukraine, for example). So the principle of establishing a regional working model of democracy in Iraq is fine. But doing so will take generations and huge investment, will constitute the largest foreign policy project since World War II, and will expose those in charge to the ongoing risk of nationalist attacks and anti-democratic rebellion. Zakaria and Rose both raised doubts about whether the U.S. is prepared to invest the time and capital, and take the risks, necessary to make it happen in Iraq. Given their post-war neglect of Afghanistan, that scepticism is understandable. Oil seems to be a curse against democracy. States with huge natural resources to draw on often lack the motivation to make democracy work. Most oil-rich countries are essentially inefficient feudal oligarchies. Finland's exports exceed the total of all Arab countries combined. The U.S. has now become diplomatically the new Soviet Union: Both states achieved compliance through fear, rather than through diplomacy, negotiation, consensus-building and generosity. We all know how well this approach worked for the Soviets. 1:28:58 PM  trackback []  comment []

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