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	June 3, 2003

THE SLOGOSPHERE'S BEST KEPT SECRET If you haven't already, add Monster Limo Weblog to your daily reading list. Bright, concise, informative, and funny political summaries, every day. Today I especially liked these two excerpts: ... Can it be that our administration is too incompetent to plant WMD in Iraq? There are 30+ US companies doing business in Iran despite trade sanctions in place since 1980. The companies' excuse? They say they are "in full compliance with US trade laws," despite being, you know, not. Scott Peterson should try this "Jedi mind trick defense" instead of that Satanic cults stuff. 10:51:20 PM  trackback []  comment []

A QUIZ: IS YOUR COUNTRY WAR-PRONE? I have long been interested in the causes of civil and international wars, and studied in university the high correlation between population density per arable acre, population growth rate, and the frequency and intensity of wars. Recently, I read approximately fifteen papers on the Internet, mostly by university professors or graduate students, analyzing various predictors of civil or international warfare. The twenty-three predictors they cite are listed in no particular order (more frequently cited factors are asterisked) in the following table: Predictive Factor Common in developed countries? (A) Common in under- developed countries? (B) Predictor of war or civil unrest? (C) Present in your country today? (D) 1. Strong nationalist sentiment sometimes yes yes 2. High rich/poor economic disparity* no sometimes yes 3. Fear of critical resource shortages sometimes yes yes 4. Economic growth slowing or negative sometimes yes yes 5. High population density/arable sq.mi. sometimes sometimes yes 6. High population growth rate no yes yes 7. Feeling of political disenfranchisement no yes yes 8. Crumbling or non-existent public    infrastructure: health, schools,transport no yes yes 9. Lingering bitterness or resentment    from a 'defeated' or suppressed group no sometimes yes 10. Regional power bases with different     interests than central government's* no yes yes 11. Financially or politically weak     central government* no sometimes yes 12. Recent loss of personal freedom or     property, or climate of fear no sometimes yes 13. High envy of others' possessions no yes yes 14. State terror: coercion or threats of     violence against certain groups* no sometimes yes 15. High number of weapons per capita sometimes sometimes yes 16. High number of incarcerated citizens sometimes sometimes yes 17. Government lacks legitimacy no yes yes 18. Unstable economy or currency no yes yes 19. Strong local personal hatreds* no yes yes 20. Insurrection or war has a reasonable     chance of succeeding sometimes sometimes yes 21. High political polarization no yes yes 22. Lack of church-state separation no sometimes yes 23. Growing or chronic unemployment no yes yes What was most interesting to me was how factors felt locally, in every home and town and family, outweigh centrally fomented factors. War-mongering governments and insurgencies, even with captive media, apparently cannot sustain war support in the absence of these local factors. It would seem from these predictors that the only things keeping many under-developed countries from constant warfare is strong totalitarian central control à la Tito (i.e. 'no' for factor eleven) and/or ensuring that everyone in the country is equally poor (i.e. 'no' for factor two). If so, it doesn't bode well for democracy in Iraq or Afghanistan. It would also seem that the US currently has an alarming number of the predictors of war or violent civil unrest, with a profile that looks more like that of an under-developed country than a developed one. I don't know what to ascribe this to. Is it the lack of the sobering lesson of two world wars that Europe learned first hand in the last century? The enduring US legacy of frontier and civil war violence? The every-man-for-himself pioneer spirit? The impact of zealous and simplistic religious evangelism? An introspective education system that doesn't adequately teach global history, geography, and cultural diversity, and the need for egalitarianism and tolerance? Most of the academic studies that produced these predictors were focused on third world conflicts. We can only hope that their findings don't translate to stabler, more affluent states. 10:38:36 AM  trackback []  comment []

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