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	December 12, 2003

ONE BILLION AMERICANS? The Center for Immigration Studies, a "non-profit immigration think tank which seeks fewer immigrants but a warmer welcome for those admitted", takes issue with the "forced optimism" of the Census Bureau's latest projections of US population. They point out that the Census Bureau's 'middle series' (a waffle term for 'most likely') projections of 404 million by 2050 and 571 million by 2100 rose by nearly 100 million and 300 million respectively from the projections made in the early '90s because they simply failed to account for the rise in immigration and the higher fertility of immigrants. In 1989 the Bureau actually projected US population to peak in 2040 at 290 million people (that level has been reached already) and decline thereafter! Perhaps that's why they're now hedging their bets with a 'highest series' projection of 553 million by 2050 and 1.182 billion by 2100 (a quadrupling of 2000's 275 million). The CIS says that huge margin for error may be needed, because the middle figures assume that fertility of all ethnic and social groups will move quickly to the 2.1 replacement level. These projections fly in the face of the burgeoning proportion of Hispanic and Asian immigrants (doubling as a percentage of the population every thirty years), who evidence shows retain their high fertility rates for generations even when they move to America or other 'assimilating' cultures. This multiplier effect (more immigrants, each having more children) could easily prove the latest Census Bureau projections as unrealistically low as they were in the 1990s. The Census Bureau assumes immigration levels will be steady or decline slightly despite explosive populations in Latin American and Asia, and relentless efforts from people in those continents to move to America. The Census Bureau ignores the uncounted illegal immigrant population, most of which comes from -- guess where, and also assumes there will be no new illegal immigration amnesties, which tend to spike immigration even higher. And with the Baby Boom generation nearing retirement and needing working-age people to balance the social service cost burden, demographer David Simcox predicts there may be a demand for even more immigrants to achieve that balance, leading to a perpetual, jerky population growth treadmill he calls 'Ponzi's Revenge'. Even without Ponzi's Revenge, the combination of these immigration factors could make the Census Bureau's 'highest series' closer to the truth than the 'middle series'. Imagine it -- one billion Americans, in metropolitan areas with an average of six times their current population and (unless drastic Smart Growth changes are implemented) sprawling across ten times the area they currently occupy. Arable land left for farming reduced by 80-90% (better hope the new Americans are vegetarians or very rich). Maybe now you can see why I believe population control is so vital to our world's survival. 10:35:53 AM  trackback []  comment []

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