Some fun with blog numbers today. The chart above is as close an approximation as I can derive for Shirky's Power Curve for the entire blogosphere. I developed it as follows:
- I used the number of inbound blogs of Technorati's Top 100 (from the latest Beta compilation).
- I extrapolated this to the Top 500 by overlaying the data for the number of inbound blogs for the blogs ranked #101 to #500 on BlogStreet,
another tool that ranks blogs based on number of inbound blogs.
BlogStreet tracks a smaller number of blogs (about 150,000) than
Technorati (which tracks about 1.5 million), and the number of inbound
blogs on their report is generally between 35% (for the most popular
blogs) and 85% of the number reported for the same blogs on Technorati.
- I then extrapolated the extremely long tail using the best
fit power equation for the Top 500. These extrapolations produced an
expected value for the #150,000 ranked blog of 9 inbound blogs, and for
the #1,000,000 ranked blog of 3 inbound blogs. Since there are many
blogs that have zero inbound blogs, this result was clearly implausible
- So I went back and cut off the Top 10, and then the Top 50
blogs, and refit the Power Curve for the remainder. This produced a
much more logical projection that about 200,000 blogs have one or more
inbound blogs, and the top 17,000 blogs have ten or more inbound blogs.
This seems plausible to me, but if any one has any contrary data I'd be
pleased to incorporate it and refit the curves accordingly.
- The formula for this closest fit of the Power Curve is as follows: Forecast number of inbound blogs = 30,000 / (rank 0.8).
- The fact that this formula does not apply to the Top 50 is,
I think, interesting. The formula would forecast that the #1 blog would
have 30,000 inbound blogs (none has anywhere near that) and the #20
ranked blog would have 2700 inbound blogs (per Technorati that blog has
only 1900). From #50 on, the formula produces forecasts amazingly close
to the actuals. The fact that the curve is (despite all appearances)
slightenly flattened at the top end might indicate that there's a
practical limit to how much of an audience any blogger can satisfy,
given all the choice out there.
- Even if you have no hope of ever making the Top 100, you
can use the charts above to estimate your popularity rank in the
blogosphere. If you have a mere 5 inbound blogs, you're probably in the
top 40,000 blogs. Ten puts you in the top 17,000, twenty puts you in
the top 7,000 (the top 0.5%), fifty puts you in the top 2,400, one
hundred almost gets you into the top 1,000, and two hundred almost gets
you into the top 400. If you have more inbound blogs than that, you can
use BlogStreet to check out your ranking, and if you have eight hundred
you know you're already in the A-list Top 100.
There are of course other measures of popularity besides the number of
people that blogroll you. You can track the number of people that
subscribe to your RSS feed using Dave Winer's Share Your OPML
site. The Top 10 all have at least 220 subscribers, and the Top 100 all
have at least 72. Expect these cutoff numbers to rise quickly as more
people register. As for the mug's game of rating blog by hitcounts,
good luck trying to figure out what they mean. From what I've seen as
many of 90% of the eyeballs that hit your site (notably most of those
from Google and other search engines) actually don't stay around long
enough to read anything. If you believe SiteMeter,
A-listers get between 1,500 (Alas a Blog), through 6,000 (TBogg) to
15,000 (Eschaton) to 200,000 (Kos) hits per day. Some spikes as high as
two million hits per day have
been achieved by A-listers for brief periods. At Salon Blogs, average
hits per day are about 7 times the number of inbound blogs, so if this
ratio applies to the whole blogosphere, a Top 100 A-lister should be
getting about 6,000 hits per day, a Top 1000 B-lister should be getting
750 hits per day, and a Top 10,000 C-lister should be getting 100-150
hits per day.
And for those that like big numbers, the aggregate number of inbound
blogs for the entire blogosphere works out to about 1.3 million, if the
curve above is correct. That would equate to about 10 million hits per
day. SiteMeter suggests the average hit keeps eyeballs for 1.5 minutes,
which equates to, say, 750,000 blog readers per day spending an average
of 20 minutes reading blogs. That's less than the paid circulation of
some big newspapers, and less than 1% of the aggregate time Americans
alone spend watching TV news each day. Kinda makes you humble.
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