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  May 14, 2004


intelligence failure
"The system is broken" -- that's how a company captain in Baghdad, interviewed recently by Seymour Hersh, explained the grossly inadequate, seriously underskilled and undertrained US military and freelance contractors, struggling with incompetent and ambiguous management from both the military chain of command and the dimwitted military intelligence forces. A retired military commander went further, calling it 'a huge leadership failure'. About eight months ago I laid out two scenarios -- fast exit and slow edit -- for the US to extricate itself militarily from Iraq. Exactly what I said would happen in that article has happened. This wasn't rocket science or brilliant analysis -- anyone with a modicum of intelligence and basic familiarity with the lessons of history could see exactly what was coming, and that the only alternative to a fast, awkward and bloody exit was a slow, excruciating and more bloody exit. It doesn't take military acumen or ageless wisdom to know that you can't keep peacefully what you take by force, and that a country whose peoples hugely distrust each other and distrust even more the motivations of an outside invading army, isn't going to magically evolve into a constitutionally liberal state and a functioning peaceful democracy overnight. Even in elementary school American children learn that constitutional liberalism is a delicate and continuous balancing act between rights and responsibilities, between personal freedoms and the need for a strong central authority for 'law, order and good government'. They also learn that democracy is a slow and difficult process, that occurs when (and only when) the people of a country are ready for it, and that democracy's health depends on the perpetual subordination of government and corporate power to the will of an informed and vigilent citizenry.

What are we to make, then, of a government, and its military intelligence advisors, whose every action demonstrates blind and irrational ideological fanaticism and a collosal misunderstanding of history, of culture, of human nature? The 'intelligence failures' are massive and obvious:
  • failure to understand the cause of widespread Arab sympathy for Bin Ladin despite, or perhaps even because of, his bold and despicable act on 9/11
  • failure to prevent or at least mitigate 9/11 when the opportunities to do so were legion
  • failure to capture Bin Ladin or Mullah Omar, despite the spending of billions of dollars
  • failure to capture or assassinate Saddam Hussein without spending billions of dollars, utterly destroying a country's infrastructure and costing thousands of innocent lives in the process
  • failure to understand that an unprovoked and unilateral attack on Iraq would drastically worsen security for Americans
  • failure to understand that people and nations cannot be bullied into supporting an unconscionable war
  • failure to appreciate that, having attacked Iraq, the only program that would save any remnant of American reputation and hope for a post-Saddam Iraq would involve the immediate spending of hundreds of billions more dollars in humanitarian aid and funds given to Iraqis to rebuild their infrastructure, the selection of the best possible interim all-Iraqi government, and a quick and complete exit by the military
  • failure to understand that the only intelligent domestic response to 9/11 was to find out and inform American citizens why it happened, and why it wasn't prevented, to take and inform Americans about modest, reasonable, unobtrusive steps to improve security intelligence, and explain that in a free and open country there is no reasonable way to prevent such incidents from occurring occasionally, and that we all need to work to create a better world in which there is no motivation for terrorism
And what, in the face of an America rendered massively less secure by every action of the Bush Regime, are we to make of an American electorate, nearly half of whom, despite these collosal failures (and even worse mismanagement of the domestic economy) continues to believe these incompetent extremists are the best ones for America for another four years?

In Wednesday's Guardian, and in The Nation, Jon Schell, Noam Chomsky, Howard Zinn and William Polk offer advice on how America can now extricate itself militarily, quickly, from Iraq. Jon Schell warns about John Kerry's insistance that the US "must not retreat in disarray and leave behind a society deep in strife and dominated by radicals". Schell says, as I did eight months ago, that this is exactly what the US must do, that despite the probability that inter-faction civil war in Iraq (that is only on hold until the "common enemy" is driven out) will likely continue for years, perhaps decades, and could well lead to the balkanization of the country into Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish republics, the only sensible course is to pull out the military immediately and send in humanitarian agencies to deal with the country's horrendous health crisis and work side-by-side with Iraqis to start rebuilding its devastated infrastructure. Will this humanitarian and infrastructure work be delayed by civil war? Probably, but until Iraqis have sorted out their own political future, this work cannot even reasonably begin.

Howard Zinn agrees, saying "The prospect, if the occupation continues, whether by the US or by an international force (as John Kerry seems to be proposing) is of continued suffering and death for both Iraqis and Americans...The truth is, no one knows what will happen if the US withdraws. We face a choice between the certainty of mayhem if we stay and the uncertainty of what will follow if we leave." Zinn wants the UN involved quickly in negotiating the peace between the factions as well as keeping it. I think that's a bit idealistic, but it's worth trying. Meanwhile the latest poll of Iraqis shows 82% are opposed to continued US and UK military presence in Iraq, and that was before the prisoner atrocities scandal.

We have been told to expect to hear much more -- and much worse -- about atrocities committed against Iraqi (and Afghani) prisoners by the American military under the command of US Military Intelligence -- prison rape of women and young boys, and desecration of dead Iraqi bodies, among other things. While US military and political attention is distracted by these activities, the next humanitarian crisis is brewing. In Sudan, the Arabic government has accelerated its genocide of non-Arabic tribes in the West of the country, even as peace negotiations in the civil war with Southern tribes continues. The lesson of ignoring such problems was made crystal clear in Rwanda, where a decade ago a genocidal bloodbath carried out mainly with machetes killed nearly a million people. Eugene at Demagogue has details on the latest developments in Sudan and links to the Human Rights Watch site  on this catastrophe. Why are we not hearing from the intelligence community, and the Bush Administration, about this? Or is the slaughter of thousands of people by insane dictators only an issue when the country is rich in oil?

And if all that wasn't enough, Bush now wants another $53 billion dollars allotted for an anti-ballistic missile system against North Korea that expert American scientists says simply doesn't work.  "All indications are that it would not work, and the administration's statements that it will be highly effective are irresponsible nonsense," said a spokesman for the scientists, discussing their 70 page technical analysis of the proposal. Much of the money for the fatally flawed program will go to Boeing, which developed the system.

In my recent readings, I've come across some alarming editorials from non-mainstream radical groups at both ends of the political spectrum -- ultra-conservative libertarians, and anarchists and eco-radicals, urging their members to vote for George Bush in November precisely because he represents everything they loathe. Their argument is that four more years of his extremism and colossal bungling will cause such an overwhelming revulsion against government, and against corporatism, by 2008 that the winning candidate in that year, and in many elections that follow, will have to be strongly libertarian, pro-environment and anti-corporatist to have any chance of being elected. Pretzel logic. But in a world where political and military actions seem to defy all human reason and intelligence, that kind of logic seems to be in vogue.

9:19:48 AM  trackback []  comment []


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