On June 28, just a month from
now, Canada goes to the polls to elect a new government. The situation
is very volatile, with the 'sponsorship scandal' -- a scam uncovered by
the Auditor General that allowed a group of civil servants to defraud
the government of millions of dollars, that has been going on for years
under the noses of the asleep-at-the-wheel Liberals in power, is being
exploited by the opposition parties, who of course are implying there
was knowledge and complicity at the highest levels of Cabinet. The
impact has been greatest in Québec, where voters really only have two
choices, the Liberals or the separatist Bloc Québecois, and recent
polls suggest the fickle voters there could deliver 80% of Canada's
second most populous province's 75 seats to the separatists.
Current standings (see map above) are: Liberals 168 (of which 95 are
from Ontario and 37 from Québec), Conservative/Reform 73 (almost all
from Canada's four Western provinces), Bloc Québecois 33 (all from
Québec), New Democratic Party 14, Independent or Vacant 13.
Based on the latest opinion polls, projected
standings would be: Liberals 143, Conservative/Reform 85, Bloc
Québecois 60, NDP 20. A majority government will require 155 seats.
Minority governments have been, in my opinion, the best governments in
Canada's history, since they have required the support of the left-wing
NDP, which has used its leverage to force introduction of much of
Canada's socially progressive legislation. So ironically, the scandal,
by weakening the Liberals, could actually produce a more liberal,
progressive government.
The Conservative/Reform party, which recently merged two right-wing
parties, is under the leadership of Stephen Harper, a (in my opinion)
dangerous arch-right-wing ideologue who once advocated Western
separatism, wants to dismantle much of the federal government and shift
power to the provinces, and likes US-style privatization, two-tier
social services and tax cuts for the rich. Like the previous Mulroney
Conservatives, this bunch of nutcakes is ready to strike a devil's
bargain with the lefty Québec separatists, who they loathe, but who
share their desire to devolve power to the provinces. It is frightening
to think that these two anti-federalist regional parties (the
Conservative/Reform in Western Canada and the Bloc in Québec) could get
within striking distance of electoral power in a month, even though
they would, combined, have less than 40% of the votes.
Because Canada, like the US, has the antiquated and unfair "first past
the post" electoral system (rather than proportional representation
like much of Europe), this could lead to a great deal of "strategic
voting" in this election. A hugely unpopular, right-wing, misnamed
"Liberal" government in British Columbia, which has 34 seats up for
grabs, has galvanized angry opposition in that province around the NDP,
which could see its 2 seats in that province jump to 20 or more, with a
mere 10% shift in popular vote -- showing the absurdity of this system.
If Ontario, which has only 4 Conservative MPs now, is sufficiently
appalled by the parochialism and extreme right-wing views of the new
Reform-dominated Conservatives (and the horrible memories of Mulroney,
who is actively campaigning for Harper) to hold their noses and
re-elect almost entirely Liberals, we could end up with a totally
fractured vote: Almost all Liberals in Ontario, almost all Bloc in
Québec, almost all NDP in BC and Manitoba, and almost all Conservatives
in Alberta and Saskatchewan. The net result would still be a
Liberal-NDP coalition government, but would leave much of the country
virtually unrepresented in the Cabinet.
Because the Canadian television networks have again conspired
(outrageously) to exclude the Green Party from the Leadership Debates,
even though the Greens have about 5% of the popular vote and (unlike
the Bloc) run candidates in every riding, the Greens will again be
unable to get enough media attention (and hence public credibility) to
elect a single MP. By contrast, if we had proportional representation
in Canada, based on the latest opinion polls, the Greens would get 15
seats, the NDP would get 48, and the Liberals would get only 108 (the
Conservative/Reform Party would get 78 and the Bloc only 45; other
small parties would get the remaining 14 seats). This would give the
Liberals and NDP combined only a one-seat majority, and they would
probably need to include the Green Party in the coalition to provide
some room for error. I would be so proud to live in a country with a
Green Party Minister of the Environment!
Alas, this is not to be. Instead, we'll be forced to vote strategically
for the less offensive candidate (i.e. one of two in most ridings) who
has a chance to be elected. In my exurban Ontario riding, those
candidates are two right-wing small-town conservatives (the not-really
Liberal has distributed anti-gay campaign literature, and the
Conservative is a hard-core 'family values' nut). Tweedledum and
Tweedledee. The Green Party candidate, Ted Alexander, is a great guy,
with more smarts, ideas and business acumen than the two big-party
peanut-brains combined, but he doesn't have a prayer of winning.
Hobson's Choice again. *Sigh*.
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