Last night the funny and inspiring Steve Raker sent a group of us a message that said simply: Can you feel it?
Inside the message were just four words: It's the tipping point...
Steve was referring to yesterday's Ipsos/AP poll showing
Kerry ahead 50-46%. I think he's right in his perception that the
advantage has tipped. I'm also beginning to think that the pollsters
have completely misunderstood the very small 'undecided' vote: The 92%
of people who are not undecided are merely saying they've made up their minds for now who to vote for, not
that they won't change their minds between now and election day. A
significant majority of Americans describe themselves as moderates, and
they are flexing their political muscle. John Kerry's campaign made a
shrewd (or cynical, if you're cynical) choice to position their
candidate as more moderate than Bush, and it's working. I believe what
we are seeing in the polls is a large number of people saying: OK,
now I know a bit more about him, I trust this Kerry guy not to do
anything crazy and embarrass America. At the same time, I'm not happy
with what's going on in Iraq. So in terms of foreign policy it's now a
toss-up, and I'm really
unhappy about what's happening here in America, so maybe I'll vote for
Kerry. The Republican Congress will keep him in check anyway.
This is not the polarized thinking we outside the US so often hear
about. It's very pragmatic, considered, middle-of-the-road thinking.
It's even, perhaps, an expression of annoyance at being taken for
granted. A quiet little rebellion by God-fearing, church-going,
moderate conservative Americans against the frothing neocons that keep
telling them, in wacko mailings and fear-mongering sermons: Of course
you're going to vote for Bush in November, but can't you campaign for
him, too, and talk to your friends and persuade them, and by the way we
need you to give us some more money...
In terms of foreign policy, and policy on health care, I don't see a
lot of difference in positions between Kerry and Bush. What I do see is
a great difference in approach
between the two candidates and their machines. While they both reserve
the right to make unilateral decisions to protect American interests,
for Bush this is a preferred course of action, while for Kerry it's a
last resort. The Kerry campaign has the advantage of intelligence, an
appreciation for diplomacy and complexity, a preference for a moderate
course of action. Despite the neocon smear campaign to paint Kerry as a
Swift Boat rogue and flip-flopper (which was a brilliant plan,
incompetently executed), the Kerry campaign has positioned their
candidate as reasonable and decisive. This is the balance moderates, I think, want to see.
In terms of economic policy, education policy, and policy on the
environment, I think the candidates are poles apart, and this is
overwhelmingly in Kerry's favour. American's aren't buying the nonsense
that offshoring is good for the country, that the erosion of decent
jobs has stopped, or that monster deficit spending will somehow fix
itself. And while the environment is not a critical issue to most
voters, there is great unease at Bush's reckless record -- for their
children's sake, at least. Bush's backers have simply been too extreme
in their programs in these areas, and this has given conservatives an
incentive, and an excuse, to vote for Kerry.
The news, both at home and abroad, is likely to continue to be bad, and
that should tip the balance even further. While it's too early to rest
in the campaign, especially with the corruption of the vote in Florida
and the vulnerabilities of the voting machines in many states, it's
time to start thinking seriously again about the program to undo some
of the damage of the past four years, and the five critical steps I
described last year to rebuild the American civic state.
These five steps will not be high on the agenda of a new Kerry
administration, but it's absolutely essential that progressives, and
all Americans who care about the sorry state of democracy and civil
liberties, keep his feet to the fire on these five issues, so that we
don't have to face the nightmare of the last four years again.
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