Here are some updates to my dreaded economic charts.
As promised, I've been tracking the Bush promise to create millions of
new jobs in 2004 (blue line) against the actual pathetic US employment
results (red line) since the start of his regime. Last month,
employment 'growth' was 96,000 jobs, less than 2/3 the increase in the
monthly labour force. Bush hence becomes the first president to preside
over a net decrease in jobs during his administration since the great
depression.
For comparison against a fiscally and socially responsible regime, the
Canadian employment trends over the same period, shown at 1/9 scale,
are superimposed (yellow line). Over the last four years, both Canadian
labour force and Canadian employment have risen by about 1 million
(7%). What's more, this entire increase has been in full-time
employment (which Canada tracks separately), whereas the US figures are
inflated by a disproportionate number of part-time jobs. Before you
come up here looking for a job, I should tell you that the employment
situation in Canada remains unsatisfactory
-- far too much of the country's employment is low-skill work, or
dependent on the exploitation of increasingly depleted non-renewable
resources, or dependent on a cheap Canadian dollar, making Canadian
products artificially inexpensive. The situation for job-seekers in the
US, where the situation is much worse, must be absolutely dreadful.
Why doesn't the US unemployment rate (which is nominally still lower
than Canada's) reflect this crisis? Because Americans in staggering
numbers are giving up looking, and these discouraged workers are not
counted as unemployed. To be counted as unemployed you have to have
'actively searched' for work in the past month.
Secondly, courtesy Yahoo, are updated charts showing the continued
weakness of the US dollar against both the Euro and the Canadian
dollar. Against almost every other currency the picture is the same.
The declines reflect the fundamental weakness of the US economy, and
especially international concerns over the crushing US debt load and
continued dependence both on willingness of foreign creditors to
advance more credit to the US and on cheap energy costs. You have to
wonder how long other countries will be willing to lend money to the US
in US dollars to finance the unprecedented US trade deficit, when these
countries are suffering such huge foreign exchange losses in the
process. And you have to wonder if, as the recent 20% increase in
energy costs works its way through the economy and pushes inflation,
and hence interest rates, up to double digit levels, which in turn will
make the US debt catastrophically more expensive to repay, it will
drive the whole economy into collapse. When it happens, we will have
Bush and his economic advisors alone to blame for it. It is not
inconceivable that John Kerry will have to guide the US through the
next global great depression.
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MADE IN CANADA
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