 Things
are the way they are for a reason. I know, I keep saying that, but it's
important. Politicians and economists don't get it: They react to
events, and rather than study why these events happened, they invent
(for the benefit of their own consciences and those of their political
supporters) a simple cause for the events that 'fits' with their
worldview. More than a desire to mislead, this is a manifestation of
intellectual laziness and a complete misunderstanding of complex
adaptive systems -- which, because they reflect human behaviour,
underlie most events that require or provoke political or economic
reaction. Complex systems can never be completely understood -- too
many variables, constantly changing and interacting. They must be
probed, not analyzed, and with enough continuous effort by a lot of
intelligent, patient, relatively unbiased people, a partial understanding of why things are the way they are will start to emerge. Such humility is, of course, beyond the capacity of the vast majority of politicians and economists.
Likewise,
business 'leaders' don't get it: They tell other people what to do,
tell them what they want done, and bring in consultants and experts to
help them 'effect change' in their organizations. They cannot fathom
that most of what happens in their organizations is workarounds
developed by front-line people to make things work in the organization despite the inept and usually inappropriate advice of management and professional advisors who only think
they understand what is really going on and why. Organizations, too,
are complex adaptive systems, and it takes a lot of probing and study
to even start to understand why things are the way they are inside them, let alone begin to change them. Of course, managers can
effect change by firing all the front-line people and bringing in
cheaper recruits, or offshoring or outsourcing or automating their
jobs, but that change is unlikely to be the change management wants,
because the main ingredient will still be people with complex human
behaviours.
I don't mean for this to be an advertisement for
more study of complex adaptive systems -- I've advocated that many
times in these pages. What I want to do is make it a bit of a game, that I call 'Secret Messages'.
Here's
how the game works: Suppose you want to understand the cause of world
poverty. You might start by hypothesizing overpopulation, or
inequitable distribution of natural resources on the planet, or
ignorance, or political despotism. But if you probe enough you will
probably conclude that there is plenty of resources for 6.5 billion
humans today, provided we don't care about leaving any for future
generations and all of the other creatures that inhabit this planet
with us. So then you decide (as many have) that it's a problem of distribution
of resources, and that the real problem is a lack of distribution
infrastructure (trains, markets etc.) That's a more complicated
explanation, but it's still not a complex one. Now suppose you ask
yourself what motivation their might be for people to deliberately
work to ensure that the distribution of resources in our world was
grossly inequitable, without being too obvious about it (in fact they
might even argue, as many do, that the 'war on poverty', a simple
metaphor for a complex problem, is being 'won'). Now you're getting into the realm of the complex. If
you jump from the initial simply-stated problem or surprising situation
to a complex hypothesis about what, at least in part, underlies it, you
have a Secret Message, telling you about something that lurks deep
beneath the surface. What's interesting is that this huge jump
in thinking often has huge intuitive, intellectual appeal. It can be,
and can come across as, quite clever. And it might even teach people
how to think about complexity.
That's how you play Secret
Messages. The best way to show this is with some examples. Here's one
to start, drawn from the famous book about complex systems called Freakonomics. The Secret Message is shown in italics.
 The Secret Message behind the dramatic drop in urban crime rates in the US starting in the 1990s: In
the 1970s Roe v. Wade finally made legal abortion available to poor
urban women who previously neither had access to abortion nor used
reliable contraception consistently.
This
hypothesis (in complex systems we have to settle for compelling
hypotheses, since with an infinite number of variables involved,
absolute proof of causality is impossible) utterly enraged both
conservatives (who tend to believe that more police, capital punishment
and tougher sentences were the causes of the crime rate drop) and
liberals (who tend to believe that better gun control, better education
and more human approaches to inner city poverty were the causes of the
drop). But even Malcolm Gladwell, whose hypothesis on this subject in The Tipping Point was seriously undermined by the Freakonomics hypothesis) acknowledges the Freakonomics hypothesis has great validity.
What
follows are some problems, mysteries, and surprise successes that are
complex, simply stated, followed by my Secret Message hypothesis about
complex human or natural behaviour that might
underlie it. It's up to you, dear reader, to decode the message -- or
rather, to follow the complex trail that leads to the hypothesis. Or
not -- you may just find them amusing, interesting or provocative. I'll
settle for that. It's as close as I can come to the cleverness in Hugh
Macleod's business card cartoons
(like the one above) since I'm neither as witty nor as artistic as he
is. If you find my Secret Messages merely cryptic or annoying, that's
fine too -- this game isn't for everyone.
The Secret Message behind the success of Google: It only has to *look* simple.
The Secret Message behind low voter turnout: People know when there's really no choice.
The Secret Message behind the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan: You can't impose democracy (i.e. rule by the people) *on* the people. The Secret Message behind both Monsanto and Guantanamo: The enduring message of Dr. Frankenstein: technology without conscience is monstrous. The Secret Message behind the success of Skype: We need to talk. The Secret Message behind the success of the anti-smoking movement and the failure of the environmental movement: Fear drives people to act only when it's personal. The Secret Message behind technophilia (the belief that technology will save us): Even atheists need a religion. The Secret Message behind the resurgence of religious fundamentalism: When people feel threatened, everything gets reduced to 'us vs. them'. The Secret Message behind the success of self-help books: We all want to say we tried. The Secret Message behind our love of ( so-called) counterculture: People want to believe they have a choice. The Secret Message behind the success of brands: Everyone wants to belong. The Secret Message behind world poverty and the disappearance of the middle class: In a world of abundance, people can't be controlled.
and my favourite from last year:
The Secret Message behind our tolerance of atrocity: When you can't imagine, you can do anything.
Your turn. |
MADE IN CANADA
trust your
instincts 
