Red
line: Sustainable population/sustainable total footprint at
prevailing levels of consumption, with no
provision for any non-human species. Green line:
Sustainable population/sustainable total footprint at
prevailing levels of consumption, with
provision for a healthy level of biodiversity. In 1980 we started living on
borrowed time. We're now living 1/3 above our planet's
sustainable capacity, and per capita resource consumption is
accelerating, headed for twice absolute sustainable capacity by 2040.
Regular
readers know that I believe we are in our civilization's final century.
My reasons for believing that are complex, though many of them can be
gleaned from my Save
the World Reading List.
I also believe that, like in past civilizations, the collapse of ours
will not be due to one single cause but rather to a cascading series of
crises. These could include:
- A ghastly and global economic depression
- The complex effects of global warming
- Use of increasingly available, devastating
biological, genetic, chemical and nuclear weaponry by extremist groups
and individuals
- Traditional nuclear war between (already)
horrifically overpopulated and ecologically devastated states
- The End of Oil
- The End of Water
- New pandemic diseases
- A host of other threats
The occurrence of any of these, in our overextended and fragile economy
and political society, increases
the probability of triggering the others.
My brain, my heart, my senses and my instincts all tell me we are near
the end, and that by the latter part of this century this will start to
become very apparent. But I cannot convince you if you are not ready to
be convinced.
Those who are convinced are asking what to do. They tend to fall into
two camps: Those who believe that concerted human action might avert
the collapse of civilization, and those who don't. The latter group is
looking for means to a softer landing, and a head start for a possible
next civilization. There is a third group, who I have dubbed neo-survivalists,
who are actually welcoming and looking to accelerate our civilization's
collapse. I have no time for this third group: If they could conceive
of the horror that will accompany collapse, they would change their
tune.
I understand the first group, as I used to be part of it. It is, after
all, human nature to be hopeful, to believe we live in good times and
that good times can last forever, to expect and depend on the promise
of new technologies without recognizing that every new technology has
created as many problems as it has solved. It took a lot to educate me
that we are far past the point of no return, and that the second,
softer-landing group is most likely correct. For the last couple of
years, this blog has reflected that belief.
James Kunstler's book The
Long Emergency is one of a growing list of books that also
reflect this belief. He recently reiterated
the steps he prescribes for a softer landing, in a synopsis
he calls his Agenda.
"We will have to
make other arrangements for virtually all the common activities of
daily life", he says. Specifically:
- Producing and consuming food
differently:
- coping with sterile soil exhausted by overuse of
chemicals no longer available
- producing and distributing foods locally
- recovering all the lost knowledge of natural,
diverse, organic ways of farming
- shifting to a vegetarian/vegan agriculture
- eating healthier
- Inhabiting the land
differently:
- moving people out of big cities and suburbs no
longer sustainable to small towns and self-sufficient cities with
healthy rural hinterlands
- relearning to use natural construction and repair
materials
- replacing land use and zoning codes with
'vernacular wisdom'
- Moving
things and people differently:
- living without private automobiles
- using more rail, water and public transport that
does not depend on fossil fuels
- finding ways to scrub CO2
out of the transportation system
- giving up on fruitless grandiose 'alternative
fuels' for automobiles that merely create scarcity elsewhere and more
pollution
- Keeping
warm and cool differently:
- using clothes to do so rather than space heaters
and air conditioners
- insulating our homes and offices better
- using renewable energy delivered through personal
and neighbourhood mechanisms instead of massive grids
- Making
things locally again and transforming retail
trade:
- returning to local markets to make, move and sell
stuff within the community
- living with fewer choices of things to buy
- relearning to make products domestically
- relearning to make our own unique personal stuff
- Entertaining
ourselves again:
- when the Internet and the electrical grid fail,
we'll need to relearn to make our own music and theatre and to play
sports instead of watching them on a screen
- Reorganizing our education
system:
- community and home-schooling
- internship
- self-learning: less rote and more practice
- Reorganizing our health
system:
- more local and community-based
- much more emphasis on prevention, self-diagnosis,
self-treatment
- taking responsibility for your own health
In short, relearning to make everything more local and smaller-scale.
And not
relying on government or big institutions for services, financial
support, or bail-outs of last resort, since the government will have no
money. And becoming resilient
– so if our income stream suddenly disappears, or all our
stuff breaks down, or the people who do things for us (from teaching
our kids to cutting our hair to supplying us with bottled water) all go
out of business, we will know what to do, and how to look after
ourselves and each other. A shocking majority of us are spending so
much, borrowing so much, saving so little, and so narrow in our
self-reliance skills, that any sudden economic shock would be ruinous.
A lot of people ask Kunstler (and me) for timelines
– when will we have to start
working on this? The answer is: no one knows, and now. We cannot wait
for systems to collapse to start learning the skills we will need when
they do, and to start creating local networks for the production and
distribution of what we need to live, and to start planning for
precisely what we will do, assuming we can depend on no one else.
Katrina taught us that, if we didn't already know.
Kunstler concludes: "If you're depressed, change your focus. Stop
wishing and start doing. The best way to feel hopeful about the future
is to get off your ass and demonstrate to yourself that you are a
capable, competent individual resolutely able to face new
circumstances".
So, time to get learning new capacities: how to grow your own
food, make your own clothes, make your own furniture, and
repair everything you own. How to set up a business you can run from
home that serves local needs. How to manage your own health, and that
of those in your community who cannot care for themselves.
And time to create new local networks: community renewable
energy co-ops, local farm markets and delivery
services, neighbourhood craft and skill networks that make and
fix beautiful, durable, essential things from local materials.
Will we relearn these essential capacities, establish these critical
local networks, and recreate communities that work, before cascading
crises are upon us and it's too late to do so? It will probably depend
on how soon they occur, how many hit us at once, and how severe they
are. Most of all, it will depend on how many of us see the value in
acquiring these capacities and creating these networks and rebuilding
self-sufficient communities that work, for their own sake, now.
And doing so together,
not just as neo-survivalists trying foolishly and selfishly to create
resiliency just for themselves and their family.
We'll do what we must, when we must. Maybe in time for a softer
landing, and in so doing perhaps create a model for the next, gentler,
lower-footprint society.
And maybe not.
|
MADE IN CANADA
trust your
instincts 
