To no one's surprise, Canadians elected a minority
government yesterday. The only surprise was Ontario, which delivered 75
of its 106 seats to the Liberals, defying both the pundits and the
polls, and giving Prime Minister Paul Martin 25 more seats than
expected in that province, all at the expense of the Conservatives.
That gave his party a surprising 42 seat plurality over the
Conservatives, who had been expected to eke out a small
plurality. Latest totals are as follows:
|
2000
Seats
|
2000
Pop.Vote %
|
2004
Seats
|
2004
Pop.Vote %
|
Liberal
|
172
|
41%
|
135
|
37%
|
Conservative
|
78
|
37%
|
99
|
29%
|
New
Democratic Party
|
13
|
9%
|
19
|
15%
|
Bloc
Québecois
|
38
|
11%
|
54
|
13%
|
Green
Party
|
0
|
2%
|
0
|
4%
|
Independent
|
0
|
0%
|
1
|
0%
|
What is clear from these numbers is that the electorate has taken a
sharp and welcome turn
to the left in this election. The rightist Conservatives lost
nearly a quarter of their support, and only gained seats because they
combined into a single party to exploit Canada's antiquated
first-past-the-post voting system. The three progressive parties, the
NDP, Bloc and Greens saw their share of the vote rise by 50%. Canadians
clearly said once again that Bush-style right-wing governments are not
for us. I'm very proud of my fellow Canadians today.
I'm delighted to report that the Green Party got more than double the
2% of the vote nationally they needed to get the new government
campaign funding of $1.75 per vote per year until the next election,
and also behaved so credibly the Canadian media conglomerate won't dare exclude them again from the
national leaders' debate next time.
There are at least a dozen seats that were won by fewer than 200 votes,
so until the recounts are over, we won't know whether the NDP will hold the
balance of power (i.e. since 155 seats is a majority, the Liberals
currently need only include the NDP and the Independent in their governing coalition, since
together they have, at last count, 155 seats. This would mark the third
Liberal-NDP coalition in Canadian history, and these have been Canada's
most responsible and progressive governments. But if the recounts eliminate this margin, then we're
in for stalemate and probably another election soon. NDP leader Jack
Layton has insisted on an immediate binding national referendum on
Proportional Representation as a condition for supporting the Liberals,
so we could well see seat totals that are far more representative of
popular vote in the next election -- possibly including at least a
dozen (4% of 308 seats) Green Party MPs!
What was most remarkable about this election, and hardly talked about
at all by the major media, was the stark
urban/rural split in the vote. Canada's Big 3 urban areas
(Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver) went solidly Liberal, the NDP won
almost all their seats in other cities, and rural areas went
overwhelmingly Conservative. While the regional split I have remarked
on before (Liberals in Ontario, Conservatives in the West, Bloc in
Québec) was certainly evident again, the urban/rural split
transcended this regionalism and applied from sea to sea. The 2004
election map won't look much different from the 2000 map above, except
that Reform Conservative blue is now Conservative blue, there will be a
bit more Conservative blue in Ontario and Bloc blue in Québec,
and a bit more Liberal red in the Atlantic provinces.
It's interesting to note that a month ago, before the voters got angry
and threatened to deal Martin a worse blow. the polls
predicted 143 Liberals, 85 Conservatives, 60 Bloc and 20 NDP seats,
very close to the final outcome.
|
MADE IN CANADA
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