In Alfonso Cuaron’s magnificent film Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkabon, Professor Trelawney (played by Emma Thompson) has the students practice the fine art of interpreting tea-leaves. In this particular scene, Harry gives his tea cup to Ron Weasley, who is supposed to interpret Harry's future. Ron, who always has that "oh crap, I’m in trouble now" look on his face, is puzzled at what the configuration of leaves is saying to him. Trelawney recognizes his befuddlement so she takes the cup from Ron and looks inside. She sees the Grimm, which signifies death.
Predicting elections seems as scientific as reading tea-leaves - it's so subjective. Even the polls, which are supposed to be scientific in nature, seem to be developed for a specific demographic so that the results favor a certain candidate. And this election cycle, we have learned that polls were unable to poll users of cell phones, which represents a vast swath of our teenage and college-age citizenry. What poll is a viable reflection of America without knowing this constituency's candidate of choice? I have also heard that minorities have been neglected in these same polls. Likewise, what poll is viable without a representation of this voice? Absurd.
I figure, in this light, that my prediction too is nothing more than a highly subjective animation of my own hope. So bugger it, I am going to do my own reading. (Of course it's absurd. But this is my election prediction, remember?)
Since I don’t drink tea and thus have no access to tea-leaves, let me intuit the ice chips left over at the bottom of my 34 oz. Diet Coke fountain drink mug.
I sit quietly and concentrate a few moments, clearing my head and tuning into my inner-feelings. I whisper, so as not to break the focus. "Who will win the election tomorrow?"
I then take the lid off the mug and look at the ice.
Damn, I think immediately. It's totally bone dry in there. Not even a hint of Diet Coke coats the ice chips. I definitely need another drink! Then I realize how significant this first impression is - the lack of jobs and the weak economy have left thousands impoverished and/or struggling to make ends meet. The cost of living - groceries, petrol, and basic health insurance costs - have increased while jobs are dwinding and wages stagnate.
The second thing that captures my attention is a hole where the straw sat. The first thing that comes to mind is "spider hole." Obviously, capturing Saddam justifies many Americans support of Bush. The second impression of this hole is the U.S. deficit. This impression favors the supporters of Kerry, who seek an administration with better management skills.
The third thing I notice is how the ice chips are piled haphazardly on top of each other like dead bodies filling a hole. The first impression coming to mind is of the rising casualty rates of the U.S. troops in the Iraq war. The second impression is of the rising casualty rates of Iraqi civilians. Does this indicate that Iraq will get worse for all parties involved no matter who wins the election? Disturbing thought.
The fourth thing I notice is a shape of a finger in one of the ice chips. The position of the finger suggests that it is pointing up. I think of heaven and an overwhelming sense of hope. America desires a candidate who can reclaim hope in a better nation and world.
The only other shape I can intuit inside of the ice chips sitting on the top looks like Darth Vador’s helmut. The word "oppression" comes to mind. John Ashcroft and his Patriot Act come to mind. The helmut sits side by side to the finger. The helmut is smaller and is overpowered by it. This fact suggests to me that America is looking more toward a hope for a better America than in the oppressive/totalitarian measures instigated by this Administration for security's sake.
The last thing I notice actually encompasses the entire circumference of the mug. The ice chips underneath the chips sitting on the top are slightly shadowed. The chips sitting above these shadows create the image of the Peace sign. I'm overwhelmed with the sense that the heart of America wants to move past the warring attitudes that have defined it since the buildup and invasion of Iraq. It wants to heal the collective wounds throughout the world that have been caused by hate and violence. It wants to rid itself of pre-emptive war. It wants communication and diplomacy to once again be the backbone of domestic and international policy. The key is seeking and establishing unity using time-proven dipolomatic skills and ethical qualities that generate respect and welcome genuine cooperation.
The drive toward change and a hope in a future that is a direct 180 from the direction we are heading today is going to bring the voters out to vote Kerry tomorrw.
Kerry is going to win the majority vote tomorrow 53% to 46% and win the Electoral College 315 to 220.
If Bush wins, well, what do ice chips know anyway?
Electoral College Predictions
I’m awarding Kerry upsets in the states Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Hawaii in the West. Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania in the Great Lakes region. And despite Jeb Bush's strangle-hold on Florida, I'm picking Kerry to win there. (Even without FLorida in this configuration of states, Kerry could still win 288 to 247.)
There is a big "what if" here and it is if Bush wins the four western states (New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and Hawaii) and Florida, he wins the electoral college 270 to 265.
But if the electoral college proposition passes in Colorado, then Bush and Kerry will tie at 269. It would be up to Congress then to pick the winner.
This is my blue and red map of America after tomorrow:
