IRAQ REFERENDUM / THEATER OF THE ABSURD
Iraq's first constitutional referendum has become the theater of the absurd ~ whose principle audience is the millions of non-thinking Americans who only watch Fox news.
All of Karl Rove's theatrical elements are there ~ The Over-hyped star, the media blitz and staged interviews, the forgotten extras, the hollywood ending and, of course, the set-up for a sequel.
The Center for American Progress brilliantly dissects this Constitutional farce and brings some reality to this so called "historic milestone " which the New York Times calls "a blueprint for national fragmentation and prolonged civil war."
Allen L Roland
Tikrit as Tinseltown
Center for American Progress
[progress@americanprogressaction.org] 10/14/05
Iraq's first constitutional referendum takes place tomorrow. For Iraqis, the vote will be at best a day of positive symbolism, when hope for the democratic process overtakes the deep ambivalence over the draft constitution. But as Brookings scholar Michael O'Hanlon reminds us, "It's not enough to just have a good day in Iraq. We had a good day on January 30, too. And then we had a good few weeks after that. And then things got as bad as ever." On the other hand, for the Bush administration, the play's the thing. As was typified yesterday by President Bush's stage-managed teleconference photo-op with troops in Tikrit, the vote is mostly an important moment for U.S. officials "eager to showcase political progress." In that vein, we look at tomorrow's referendum through the eyes of the Bush administration, paying far less attention to political fare than theatrical flair.
THE OVER-HYPED STAR: The headliner of tomorrow's vote is the Iraqi draft constitution, which the Bush administration argues is an "example of democratic progress in the Middle East." This oversells the document. As the Financial Times argues, Iraq's constitution "is only valuable if applied in spirit and to the letter and it is far from clear that Iraq will have a government that will respect the charter." As it stands, most Middle East countries have constitutions that "guarantee respect for human rights and freedom of expression, but these clauses are rarely applied in practice."
THE MEDIA BLITZ: Yesterday, in what was "billed as a conversation with U.S. troops," President Bush spoke via teleconference with a "handpicked group of U.S. troops," asking questions that were "choreographed to match his goals for the war in Iraq and Saturday’s vote on a new Iraqi constitution." Following the event, Pentagon communications aide Allison Barber "insisted" to reporters that questions "were not rehearsed," and that no "specific questions" were prepared. Unfortunately, she was caught on tape prepping the soldiers and acknowledging just the opposite — that she had "drilled through" "all six" of the questions that Bush was going to ask. (Watch the video.) Nevertheless, the Bush administration still refused to admit the teleconference was simply a choreographed photo-op. Asked by a reporter whether the questions to the president were in any way pre-screened, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said, "No. ... This is a back-and-forth."
THE FORGOTTEN EXTRAS: Ask ordinary Iraqis about the draft constitution "and they will ask more mundane questions in return: When will our road be paved? When will the power lines be fixed?" Enthusiasm is low even among the Iraqi Kurds, whose demands were mostly met in the current constitutional draft. In the days before this second major vote since the 2003 U.S. invasion, Kurdish cities "that looked like one big street party" before January's election now feel "more like a deserted Wrigley Field after the Chicago Cubs let another pennant chance slip away," the Washington Post reports. "There's no business," says one Kurd, blaming dangerous roads between the north and the rest of the country. "I don't care about the presidents. I just want my life. I want to watch movies from India." The problem is not simply that most Iraqis are "more worried about the suicide bombings, the power shortages, the lack of jobs and the inability of the ruling factions to control their squabbling militias than about the precise constitutional wording." It's that they are being asked to approve a document that most haven't even had the chance to read. Notwithstanding, U.S. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad on Wednesday urged "everyone in Iraq not to listen to the interpretations, to read [the draft constitution] for themselves and to think about the future of Iraq." Asked how Iraqis were supposed to review the changes, "with the vote two days away and printing and distribution of revised copies impossible, Khalilzad told reporters there was 'ample opportunity. ... I understand Iraqis watch a lot of TV.'"
THE HOLLYWOOD ENDING: "It is a historic milestone that the Iraqi people will be voting on a constitution," McClellan added yesterday, part of their effort to put a "positive spin" on the referendum. "It's a hopeful sign for the entire broader Middle East." But even the administration's allies admit this isn't the case. "Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, recently told the U.S. Congress it was 'entirely possible' that passage of the constitution with a strong majority of Sunni Muslim Arabs voting against it could worsen the situation." Likewise, Cato Institute defense analyst Ted Carpenter says "the referendum is not likely to alter the underlying security environment," and in fact "may make matters even worse."
THE SET-UP FOR A SEQUEL: Like any good blockbuster, the referendum vote contains a cliffhanger, since even "the last-minute revision in Baghdad doesn't appear to settle any of the key issues that have alienated the Sunnis -- the creation of a southern Shi'a super-region, decentralized control of Iraq's oil wealth, the status of former Ba'ath Party officials. It simply kicks those disputes forward to yet another round of back room negotiations next year." Indeed, Iraqis are voting with "the assumption that [the constitution] may soon be radically rewritten" from its current form, described by the New York Times as "a blueprint for national fragmentation and prolonged civil war."
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