Winning Coalitions
Well folks, clearly I've been more than lax about updating my blog this
July. The summer can be a really busy time for me. But I have had a
few thoughts of late that I would like to share.
Today, I'd like to address the debate over the DLC notion that votes
gained in the center are more valuable than votes gained on the left.
Their argument follows a simple logic: a vote gained on the left gives
you one vote, while a vote gained in the center gives you a vote while
depriving your opponent of a vote.
Usually, the arguments against this strategy are emotional and
ideological, equating it with prostituting principles for votes. But
you don't need to head down this divisive road at all to see the flaws
in the logic of the strategy.
What the go-for-the-center strategy ignores is the fact that people on
the margins don't have to vote. As the Democrats move to the right,
every "double" vote they gain at the Republicans' expense can be
neutralized by the loss of a vote on the left (whether by way of
disillusioned apathy or by way of defection to the Greens).
Furthermore, as the Democrats move away from their base to graze where
the grass looks greener, they marginalize the most enthusiasitc portion
of their constituency. Who is going to do the organizing when the only
voters they seem to value are swing voters? The definition of a swing
vote is that it can swing. It makes for some very unstable ground on
which to build the future of a party.
Finally, if we take a look through the looking glass, the Republicans
have proven by example that you can strengthen your party by nurturing
your base.
Now I'm not arguing here that the Dems should radicalize. They can't
win an election while alienating the center any more than they can while
alienating their base. That part of the DLC argument is sound. The fly
in the ointment is the presumption of mutual exclusivity.
The Republicans have proven that a party can stitch together a fairly
solid winning coalition of ideological and swing voters. How the Dems
can do the same is the $64,000 question. Clearly I don't have all the
answers, but I'm pretty sure it doesn't begin by alienating their base.
8:23:46 PM 
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