Tuesday, March 23, 2004

Revisiting the Dust Bowl Click here to view animation (4091 kb) NASA scientists have an explanation for one of the worst climatic events in the history of the United States, the “Dust Bowl” drought, which devastated the Great Plains and all but dried up an already-depressed American economy in the 1930s. Siegfried Schubert of NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and colleagues used a computer model developed with modern-era satellite data to look at the climate over the past 100 years. The study found cooler-than-normal surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean combined with warmer tropical Atlantic Ocean temperatures to create conditions in the atmosphere that turned America’s breadbasket into a dust bowl from 1931 to 1939. The team’s findings, “On the Cause of the 1930s Dust Bowl,” were published in the March 19, 2004, issue of Science magazine. The illustrations above compare the model results (top image) to rainfall data collected from 1932 to 1938 (bottom image). The model data show extensive drying throughout the Great Plains. The dark red represents the driest areas, followed by light red, then orange, and yellow, which is the least dry. The lower image shows observed rainfall maps. The model results agree well with the observations, validating the model. “The 1930s drought was the major climatic event in the nation’s history,” Schubert said. “Just beginning to understand what occurred is really critical to understanding future droughts and the links to global climate change issues we’re experiencing today.” Image courtesy NASA Recommend this Image to a Friend Back to: Newsroom Also see   Latest Images View Images Index   Flooding along the Betsiboka River & Estuary   Kinshasa and Brazzaville   Yukon River Tree Springs to Life 7:43:46 PM    comment []

Investors Say Higher Energy Prices, Outsourcing Hurting U.S. Investment Climate Overall investor optimism declines for second month in a row in March by Dennis Jacobe GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- While the train bombings in Spain may have been the catalyst for a long-expected stock market correction, it is not terrorism or international conflicts that are most troubling to investors this March. Instead, investors are most likely to point to higher energy prices and outsourcing as doing the most damage to the current investment climate, according to the latest UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism survey. Add long-standing investor concerns about questionable accounting practices and the federal budget deficit, and it is not surprising that investor optimism declined for the second month in a row during March, and now stands at 85. Significantly, the March decline saw optimism among substantial investors (those having $100,000 or more of investable assets) drop even more sharply than it did among other investors. Factors Hurting the Investment Climate a Lot Almost two out of three investors (64%) say that the price of energy (including gas and oil) is hurting the current U.S. investment climate a lot. Another 26% say energy prices are hurting the investment climate a little. Similarly, 6 out of 10 investors (61%) say the outsourcing of jobs to foreign countries is hurting the investment climate a lot, while another 20% say "a little." Not too far behind these issues on the investor worry list are questionable accounting practices in business and the federal budget deficit, with 52% of investors saying each of these factors is hurting the investment climate a lot. The current situation in Iraq (41%) and the threat of more terrorist attacks (37%) trail these economic concerns even after the March 11 bombings in Spain that took place during the survey period. Only 27% of investors say that general economic conditions are hurting the U.S. investment climate a lot. Nineteen percent point to the value of the dollar against foreign currencies, and 16% say the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians is hurting the investment climate a lot. Factors Hurting the U.S. Investment Climate % saying "hurting it a lot" March 5-7, 2004 Factors Hurting the U.S. Investment Climate % saying "hurting it a lot" March 5-7, 2004 Investor Optimism Declines Again The Index of Investor Optimism has fallen 23 points over the past two months -- down 12 points in March on top of an 11-point decline in February. The overall Index now stands at 85 -- its lowest level since last October (69). Investor optimism is much higher than it was a year ago (5), when the country was preparing for war with Iraq, but is substantially below where it was two years ago (121). The Personal Dimension has fallen 7 points over the past two months and now stands at 65. Over the same period, the Economic Dimension has declined 16 points and is currently at 20. Index of Investor Optimism — U.S. January 2000 – March 2004 Optimism Among Substantial Investors Declines Sharply In February, substantial investors remained comparatively optimistic, with an Index of 121 -- up 2 points from January. In sharp contrast, optimism among average investors -- those with at least $10,000 but less than $100,000 of investable assets – fell 17 points to 84. In March, "average investor" optimism continued to decline, falling 6 points to 78. At the same time, "substantial investor" optimism plunged 23 points to 98. While substantial investors remain more optimistic than their "average investor" counterparts, both Indexes have fallen more than 20 points since January. Index of Investor Optimism Average vs. Substantial Investors January 2000 – March 2004 Should We Be Worried About the Economic Recovery? The decline in investor optimism has been mirrored by a decline in consumer confidence. A Gallup Poll conducted March 8-11 shows that, for the first time since last October, fewer consumers say economic conditions are getting better (44%) than say they are getting worse (47%). The poll also shows that the percentage of consumers rating economic conditions as poor (24%) is at its highest level since that same month. Many economic observers seem to believe that the federal tax-refund checks that are now going out will combine with low interest rates to keep the economic expansion going in the months ahead. Investors expect a median federal refund of about $1,500. And more than half of those expecting refunds (55%) say they plan to use them to pay bills or buy something special. Still, surging energy prices and a lack of job creation -- something many Americans seem to attribute to the outsourcing of jobs to foreign countries -- have created some doubts about the economic outlook for later this year and into early 2005. Can inflation and interest rates stay low if energy prices continue to increase this summer? Can the economy continue to expand without creating new jobs? Given this context, it is not surprising that the percentage of investors saying the economy is in a recovery or sustained expansion dropped from 69% in February to 57% in March. On a more optimistic note, however, consumer spending may keep the economy growing even as investor and consumer confidence declines. In March, nearly one in three consumers (31%) told Gallup that they plan to increase their overall spending levels over the next six months. This is the highest percentage of consumers planning to increase spending since Gallup began tracking consumer spending intentions in October 2001. As a result of these strong consumer spending intentions, we probably don't have to worry about the economic recovery in the immediate term. Survey Methods Results for the Index of Investor Optimism -- U.S. are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected U.S. sample of 803 adult investors, aged 18 and older, with at least $10,000 of investable assets, conducted March 1-14, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls. 7:32:39 PM    comment []

LINKS ON OUTSOURCING: http://www.IsYourJobGoingOffshore.com http://www.epinet.com (The Economic Policy Institute) http://www.NoMoreH1B.com http://www.RescueAmericanJobs.org (also has a forum) http://www.NoSlaves.com (brand new) (also has a forum) http://www.Zazona.com You can also find links to dozens of other sites here: http://www.itpaa.org/modules.php?name=Content&;pa=showpage&pid=9 7:23:35 PM    comment []