The cleanup is going to be a nightmare. Rescue workers are scouring the city in response to 911 calls from residents trapped on roof tops and in trees. Katrina was not as bad as it could have been, but it was still very, very bad. Worst hit in the city were some of the poorest neighborhoods, like the lower 9th Ward and New Orleans East, areas where many residents did not have the resources to evacuate.

I'm getting hundreds of hits today from people searching for "New Orleans blogs." If you happened upon this site looking for information about the condition of your New Orleans neighborhood, here is a message board the Times-Picayune set up. I'm thinking about y'all!!

I've received several sigh-of-relief emails and calls from friends scattered across the south in their hideaway places after evacuating for Katrina. It came and it did damage, no one knows how much yet, but it didn't come directly over the city and it didn't break the levees. Once again, a massive catastrophe was averted by pure dumb luck. (Or perhaps by the grace of god, if you believe in such things -- my friend Gabe told me that a couple of days ago a priest was on New Orleans television issuing a prayer for the safety of the city. "He gave the city its last rites!" he told me. Mercy!)

I imagine my friends will have to stay away from the city for several more days at least while FEMA and other relief agencies come in and assess the damage and safety of the city. Meanwhile, the 100,000 or so residents who were not able to leave are no doubt either counting their blessings or calling for help, desperate for the city services to start up again so they can be assisted. The thousands of residents and tourists who are holed up in the Superdome and downtown hotels are looking at many more hours away from home too, because with the streets flooded as they are now, it is not safe for anyone to be roaming about. Hopefully there has only been loss of property and no loss of life. We will know in the next couple of days.

Anyone who's watched CNN for even a minute the past twenty-four hours knows that New Orleans is vulnerable to hurricanes, especially large and powerful ones like Katrina. You know the city is under sea level, for the most part, and sits in a sort of "bowl" with the sides made of the Mississippi River and Lake Ponchartrain. Last year, one of my students was a geologist working with a company and FEMA on developing evacuation plans for the city. As part of Eric's work, he created this graphic and was kind enough to give me a copy. Hopefully he doesn't mind that I'm posting it here!



The New Orleans most people think of sits in the half-circle curve of the river, with the French Quarter on the far right side of the curve and Uptown, home of Tulane University, on the left. Toward the center is Mid-City, and up near the lake is Lakeview. West past the curve is Old Jefferson and Metairie and Kenner, and off to the right is East New Orleans (some of it is not in this picture). South of the main city is the "West Bank," which seems like a misnomer since it is south of the city, but actually refers to the the side of the river that is west through most of the country, before the river takes its twisty-turny trail to the Gulf of Mexico.

What is spectacular about this graphic is what the colors represent: the redder the area, the more above sea level; the greener, the more below sea level. So yes, the natural levees around the river are the highest points in the city, and even the river bottom is significantly higher than nearly all areas of the city, but particularly Mid-City and Lakeview and East New Orleans. Isn't that comforting?

The levee and pumping systems are engineering wonders. They have protected the city for years, even with the erosion of the coast line -- which is happening so rapidly some predict New Orleans will be a coastal city in 50 years -- and the sinking of the city, evidenced by so many cock-eyed structures in the neighborhoods. But they are not enough, and according to some of the "experts" on TV this morning, the levees along the river have worked to destroy the marshlands surrounding the city, making New Orleans even more vulnerable to flooding because the swamps no longer absorb enough of the storm waters. The river has been dredged over the years, the earth from the bottom brought up to build the levees, and therefore the worry is not that the river will overflow its banks so much as the lake will spill over, break its levees, and flood the city from the north. There are scientists across Louisiana trying to assess the effects of coastal erosion and working to protect New Orleans from storms exactly like this one.

Unfortunately, though, it is not engineering that can completely save New Orleans. The biggest threat to life in the city during a storm is poverty. That is why so many are unable to evacuate, regardless of what Senator Landrieu had to say this morning. She talked on CNN about people being stubborn and not heeding warning, and no doubt this is true for some. But for most in the city who stay, it has nothing to do with stubborness and everything to do with resources. How do you get out of town when you have no vehicle and no money, and where are you going to go? Where are you going to stay? Not everyone has credit cards, let alone spare cash to pay for hotel rooms. The entire evacuation system is designed for people with resources. Unfortunately, New Orleans is a city with a large percentage of its population living below the poverty line. Out of just under 500,000 residents, 100,000 don't have vehicles or the resources to get out, which is why the city has devised "shelters of last resort" like the Superdome.

The city has lasted over 300 years, maybe because it's a bit hartier than we give it credit for. I don't know. Eric said it was a matter of if, not when, the city would be destroyed by a storm and all of the "experts" on CNN and the Weather Channel the past two days have said the same. There are only so many times the city can be saved by its good juju. I don't know how many "lives" a city gets, but if it's anything like cats, New Orleans is close to meeting its limit.

Hang in there, NOLA.