If the election were held today, the Johnstown Democrat would coast to an 18th term in the 12th Congressional District, according to results of the poll conducted Oct. 7-8 by Susquehanna Polling and Research in Harrisburg.
Murtha leads Irey 57 percent to 30 percent, according to the survey of 400 voters. Eleven percent of those polled were undecided, 1 percent said they will not vote and 1 percent did not respond when asked for whom they would vote.
In a race defined by the war in Iraq, the results indicate voters agree with Murtha, who has called for withdrawal of troops, rather than Irey, who insists America should stay the course.
James Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling and Research, predicted Murtha will win with 60 percent of the vote. He said the survey indicates that Murtha's attitude on the war is "much more in sync with public opinion" in his district.
Brad Clemenson, Murtha's district director, was pleased with the poll's findings.
"The results are encouraging, but the poll that counts is Nov. 7," Clemenson said.
Jason Davidek, Irey's campaign manager, said he places more faith in an internal poll conducted for the Irey camp three weeks ago by Public Opinion Strategies, a national political and public affairs research firm headquartered in Alexandria, Va. That survey of 400 likely voters showed Murtha leading Irey by 10 percentage points, 55 percent to 45 percent, according to information supplied by the campaign.
"We knew we'd be the underdog from the beginning. Obviously, she is well-known in Washington County, but the response throughout the district has been amazing," Davidek said.
While Irey's staffers have been in "hard campaign mode for a while," Davidek said he believes advertising in the final weeks will help her build momentum.
Irey's disappointing numbers did not appear to worry state GOP officials. Scott Migli, executive director of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, said other polls show "a much tighter race."
"It depends upon which poll you look at," Migli said, who added that Republican candidates statewide are still finding staunch supporters.
Migli conceded it is difficult for a candidate like Irey, who is largely unknown in areas outside Washington County, to overcome an established incumbent.
"She's working hard and has been very successful in some areas," he said, adding that the election results ultimately "may shock some people."
Of those polled, 50 percent said Murtha has done his job well enough to deserve re-election, while 39 percent said it is time for a change.
Name recognition alone will help the veteran lawmaker draw votes from across the nine-county district, the survey found.
Ninety-three percent of those polled recognized Murtha by name. In that group, 57 percent said they held a favorable opinion of the congressman, while 26 percent registered an unfavorable opinion.
Just 62 percent of the respondents recognized Irey's name. In that group, 20 percent reported a favorable opinion of the commissioner and 20 percent said they viewed her unfavorably.
In Washington County, where Irey has served as a commissioner since 1995, the poll showed Murtha leading Irey 66 percent to 27 percent.
While 91 percent of the poll respondents in Washington County indicated they recognize Irey's name, only 39 percent said they have a favorable opinion of her as a candidate. Another 38 percent said they have an unfavorable opinion of Irey, while 14 percent said they have no opinion of her at all.
"This shows that she hasn't been successful in developing a positive image in the district she serves," Lee said. "You want to do better in your base area. I don't get the sense she is a viable alternative in this campaign."
Ninety-two percent of those polled in Washington County said they recognize Murtha by name. From that group, 62 percent reported a favorable opinion of the congressman, versus 19 percent who view him unfavorably.
Thirty percent of respondents identified the war as the most important problem facing the country today, while 11 percent listed the economy, jobs and unemployment as more important.
Fifty-six percent of those questioned said America is less safe today because of the war in Iraq, compared to 27 percent who feel the country is safer. Ten percent indicated the country's level of safety has not changed, while 6 percent said they are undecided and 1 percent declined to answer the question.
"Most people believe the war has made us less safe, something that Murtha has been saying all along," Lee said.
Poll results
The following are some questions asked in a poll commissioned by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review about the race for the 12th Congressional District involving U.S. Rep. John P. Murtha and his GOP challenger, Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey.
Who do you favor?
• Murtha, 57%
• Irey, 30%
• Undecided, 11%
• Neither, 1%
• Refuse, 1%
What do you believe is the single most important issue facing the United States today?
• War in Iraq, 30%
• Politicians/government, 10%
• Terrorism/national security, 9%
Generally speaking do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you think things have gotten on the wrong track?
• Right direction, 26%
• Wrong direction, 65%